Chinese companies are good at mass production once they acquire the technology and expertise. TSMC seems capable of staying ahead of Chinese companies. Intel's 18A is uncertain, and Samsung is struggling.
Chinese DRAM manufacturers have significantly expanded their production capacity and expanded from domestic demand markets to overseas markets, leading to intensified industrial competition. Photo by Fu Shimin
China is ramping up DRAM production capacity, with consumer DDR4 bearing the brunt. Oversupply of production capacity will lead to intensified price competition. Not only is Changxin Memory actively expanding production, Fujian Jinhua, which has been sanctioned by the United States, has also moved towards DDR4 mass production.
The Taiwanese memory module industry revealed that the current DDR4 quotation from Chinese memory factories is 5% cheaper than the second-hand demolition products circulating in the market. Compared with the price of the three major international DRAM manufacturers, it is almost half the price. It is the lowest price in China. Due to competition, it is reported that the two major Korean manufacturers will reduce the supply of DDR4 production capacity and are forced to accelerate their development towards high-end applications.
Trump’s new policy has not yet been implemented, but it has already brought a high degree of uncertainty to China’s semiconductor industry. The industry pointed out that recently, Chinese memory manufacturers are actively seeking overseas exports. Although Chinese DRAM is not included in the official U.S. blacklist restrictions, they are still trying their best to Avoid exporting to the United States, Europe and other regions.
It is understood that Chinese manufacturers hope to enter the huge Indian market through Taiwanese companies in many twists and turns, mainly because of the relatively tense atmosphere between China and India. If they can use the brand awareness of Taiwanese companies, they are expected to dilute the red flag. Sensitive colors of the supply chain.
According to industry insiders, Chinese memory manufacturers have come to the door, hoping to expand overseas production as much as possible before the transition between the old and new US governments. Nowadays, DDR4 production capacity supply is no longer a problem, and Chinese DRAM manufacturers have greatly expanded their production capacity, leaving the market with oversupply. Chaos emerges.
As a large number of DDR4 chips have been dumped in China's channel market in recent months, and a large number of second-hand DDR4 products that have been disassembled from server applications have been resold. Now that Chinese DRAM manufacturers have joined the battle, DDR4 prices have plunged into a bloody river.
Judging from the demolition price of DDR4, it used to be about 70% to 20% off the price quoted by major international manufacturers. However, since the second half of 2024, the market price competition has intensified, and it has now dropped to 50% to 60% off the original price quoted by the Chinese series. The prices recently released by DRAM manufacturers are more flexible and will be about 5% cheaper than the price of dismantled products, reflecting the extremely severe pressure on various DDR4 inventory reductions.
Recently, it was reported that the Hefei factory of Changxin Memory, a representative company of Chinese DRAM, had to be scrapped due to human negligence. As a result, about 65,000 wafers had to be scrapped. As it was unable to deliver on time, Changxin Memory issued an internal announcement, including the factory director, deputy director, Many senior officials, including the person in charge of the operation center, were punished. The industry concluded that this may have been caused by improper management of mask versions when switching equipment.
However, according to the plan, Changxin Memory's overall DRAM production capacity has grown from 70,000 pieces per month in 2022 to 200,000 pieces per month in 2024. The Hefei 2 factory and the Beijing factory will gradually expand production, and the total production capacity will be even higher in the future. Looking at 300,000 pieces, it is estimated that production capacity will account for 11% of the global DRAM market in 2024. Through production expansion and technology upgrades, Changxin Memory has become one of the top four DRAM manufacturers in the world.
As for Fujian Jinhua, which was once subject to U.S. sanctions that led to the shutdown of its production lines, it is reported that with Huawei's leading intervention, it has become the best demonstration of the transformation of China's local semiconductor industry. At present, Fujian Jinhua's DRAM production capacity has also continued to expand, and DDR4 8Gb 3200 specifications have become The main force in mass production, although Jinhua has not disclosed the scale of mass production, it is estimated that the monthly production capacity will reach approximately 100,000 pieces by the end of 2024, and is expected to expand to 120,000 pieces in 2025.
According to current market research, the spot market price of DDR4 8Gb chips is about US$1.13, but the quotations from Chinese memory manufacturers can range from US$0.75 to US$1.0.
According to the memory supply chain, driven by the Chinese government’s policy subsidies and localization policies, Chinese DRAM manufacturers are not afraid of losing money at all, and local memory module manufacturers’ willingness to adopt localization has increased significantly, including Longsys, Baiwei, and Deutsche Mingli and other companies are regarded as the first echelon. With the help of China's memory production capacity, they are expected to gain price and cost advantages in the consumer market.
Shu Chongwan, chairman of Transcend, recently said that the substantial expansion of China's DRAM production capacity has indeed put pressure on the market from oversupply. Although currently industrial control customers will hardly use Chinese DRAM, the impact on consumer products will be more obvious. Now Transcend's The revenue share of industrial control products has reached approximately 60%. However, in order to maintain a fixed procurement scale from original manufacturers, the consumer market cannot completely fade out, and a certain revenue share must still be maintained.
As China's DDR4 spreads to the end market, it is reported that two major Korean manufacturers plan to significantly reduce the proportion of DDR4 production capacity and develop towards high-end DDR5 and HBM3 or above specifications.
The industry believes that by reducing the supply of DDR4 production capacity by major manufacturers, the oversupply of DRAM in 2025 is expected to improve. However, Taiwanese DRAM manufacturers will probably bear the brunt of the impact and will compete head-to-head with Chinese manufacturers in the DDR4 battlefield. The memory industry is not only competing for production capacity, but also In an industry that has to compete with the speed of process upgrades, once the capacity expansion of Changxin and other industries accelerates and the technology speed upgrade moves towards DDR5, the competition pressure in the DRAM industry may increase day by day in the future.
China's DRAM self-made production capacity is overflowing. Overseas Korean manufacturers are rumored to reduce DDR4 production capacity and supply.
Chinese DRAM manufacturers have significantly expanded their production capacity and expanded from domestic demand markets to overseas markets, leading to intensified industrial competition. Photo by Fu Shimin
China is ramping up DRAM production capacity, with consumer DDR4 bearing the brunt. Oversupply of production capacity will lead to intensified price competition. Not only is Changxin Memory actively expanding production, Fujian Jinhua, which has been sanctioned by the United States, has also moved towards DDR4 mass production.
The Taiwanese memory module industry revealed that the current DDR4 quotation from Chinese memory factories is 5% cheaper than the second-hand demolition products circulating in the market. Compared with the price of the three major international DRAM manufacturers, it is almost half the price. It is the lowest price in China. Due to competition, it is reported that the two major Korean manufacturers will reduce the supply of DDR4 production capacity and are forced to accelerate their development towards high-end applications.
Trump’s new policy has not yet been implemented, but it has already brought a high degree of uncertainty to China’s semiconductor industry. The industry pointed out that recently, Chinese memory manufacturers are actively seeking overseas exports. Although Chinese DRAM is not included in the official U.S. blacklist restrictions, they are still trying their best to Avoid exporting to the United States, Europe and other regions.
It is understood that Chinese manufacturers hope to enter the huge Indian market through Taiwanese companies in many twists and turns, mainly because of the relatively tense atmosphere between China and India. If they can use the brand awareness of Taiwanese companies, they are expected to dilute the red flag. Sensitive colors of the supply chain.
According to industry insiders, Chinese memory manufacturers have come to the door, hoping to expand overseas production as much as possible before the transition between the old and new US governments. Nowadays, DDR4 production capacity supply is no longer a problem, and Chinese DRAM manufacturers have greatly expanded their production capacity, leaving the market with oversupply. Chaos emerges.
As a large number of DDR4 chips have been dumped in China's channel market in recent months, and a large number of second-hand DDR4 products that have been disassembled from server applications have been resold. Now that Chinese DRAM manufacturers have joined the battle, DDR4 prices have plunged into a bloody river.
Judging from the demolition price of DDR4, it used to be about 70% to 20% off the price quoted by major international manufacturers. However, since the second half of 2024, the market price competition has intensified, and it has now dropped to 50% to 60% off the original price quoted by the Chinese series. The prices recently released by DRAM manufacturers are more flexible and will be about 5% cheaper than the price of dismantled products, reflecting the extremely severe pressure on various DDR4 inventory reductions.
Recently, it was reported that the Hefei factory of Changxin Memory, a representative company of Chinese DRAM, had to be scrapped due to human negligence. As a result, about 65,000 wafers had to be scrapped. As it was unable to deliver on time, Changxin Memory issued an internal announcement, including the factory director, deputy director, Many senior officials, including the person in charge of the operation center, were punished. The industry concluded that this may have been caused by improper management of mask versions when switching equipment.
However, according to the plan, Changxin Memory's overall DRAM production capacity has grown from 70,000 pieces per month in 2022 to 200,000 pieces per month in 2024. The Hefei 2 factory and the Beijing factory will gradually expand production, and the total production capacity will be even higher in the future. Looking at 300,000 pieces, it is estimated that production capacity will account for 11% of the global DRAM market in 2024. Through production expansion and technology upgrades, Changxin Memory has become one of the top four DRAM manufacturers in the world.
As for Fujian Jinhua, which was once subject to U.S. sanctions that led to the shutdown of its production lines, it is reported that with Huawei's leading intervention, it has become the best demonstration of the transformation of China's local semiconductor industry. At present, Fujian Jinhua's DRAM production capacity has also continued to expand, and DDR4 8Gb 3200 specifications have become The main force in mass production, although Jinhua has not disclosed the scale of mass production, it is estimated that the monthly production capacity will reach approximately 100,000 pieces by the end of 2024, and is expected to expand to 120,000 pieces in 2025.
According to current market research, the spot market price of DDR4 8Gb chips is about US$1.13, but the quotations from Chinese memory manufacturers can range from US$0.75 to US$1.0.
According to the memory supply chain, driven by the Chinese government’s policy subsidies and localization policies, Chinese DRAM manufacturers are not afraid of losing money at all, and local memory module manufacturers’ willingness to adopt localization has increased significantly, including Longsys, Baiwei, and Deutsche Mingli and other companies are regarded as the first echelon. With the help of China's memory production capacity, they are expected to gain price and cost advantages in the consumer market.
Shu Chongwan, chairman of Transcend, recently said that the substantial expansion of China's DRAM production capacity has indeed put pressure on the market from oversupply. Although currently industrial control customers will hardly use Chinese DRAM, the impact on consumer products will be more obvious. Now Transcend's The revenue share of industrial control products has reached approximately 60%. However, in order to maintain a fixed procurement scale from original manufacturers, the consumer market cannot completely fade out, and a certain revenue share must still be maintained.
As China's DDR4 spreads to the end market, it is reported that two major Korean manufacturers plan to significantly reduce the proportion of DDR4 production capacity and develop towards high-end DDR5 and HBM3 or above specifications.
The industry believes that by reducing the supply of DDR4 production capacity by major manufacturers, the oversupply of DRAM in 2025 is expected to improve. However, Taiwanese DRAM manufacturers will probably bear the brunt of the impact and will compete head-to-head with Chinese manufacturers in the DDR4 battlefield. The memory industry is not only competing for production capacity, but also In an industry that has to compete with the speed of process upgrades, once the capacity expansion of Changxin and other industries accelerates and the technology speed upgrade moves towards DDR5, the competition pressure in the DRAM industry may increase day by day in the future.
中國DRAM自製產能溢出海外 韓業者傳將減少DDR4產能供
中國DRAM產能大舉開出，消費性DDR4首當其衝，產能供過求將導致價格競爭加劇，不僅長鑫存儲積極擴產，曾經遭到美國制裁的福建晉華也已邁向DDR4量產。
www.digitimes.com.tw
