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AMD says Intel's 'horrible product' is causing Ryzen 9 9800X3D shortages

Intel sponsored this video.
Yes, but it doesn't change the point that Arrow Lake for mobile product lines are quite competitive.

Before CES, PCWorld already predicted that Arrow Lake offerings could be quite competitive in the mobile space.

"In fact, you can make the argument that Intel’s decision to prioritize low power over high performance with its Arrow Lake desktop processors — which contributed to a steep drop in Intel desktop market share in 2024 — might be viewed more favorably in notebooks which can benefit from longer battery life. That argument makes more sense backing up a Core H-series part, which isn’t as desperate for performance as a Core HX chip is."

 
Other topic - re: Arrow Lake volume.

We don't know whether Bob Swan intended for N3 to carry Arrow Lake 100%, or if he was still banking on some Arrow Lake capacity internal to Intel (packaging, and "3nm" or whatever the roadmap equivalent to 20A is/was). It's possible that the volume is a little low simply because they didn't order enough capacity.

We also had reports that Gelsinger was going to Taiwan to negotiate TSMC volumes, which could mean anything with respect to Arrow Lake. (More capacity from TSMC, less capacity from TSMC, deferred capacity to another product produced at TSMC, etc..).

Tl;dr too many unknowns on why the volume of Arrow Lake is what it is, other than if it's not ramped up highly in Q2 this year then there's a major problem.

Bob Swan initially planned for a substantial N3 volume. During a 2021 lecture, Morris Chang mentioned that Mark Liu was very pleased with the significant Intel deal. However, Morris cautioned Mark not to celebrate too soon, as production and technology are the core of Intel, and the deal might not succeed. Subsequently, Bob Swan stepped down, and Pat Gelsinger took over.

Pat significantly reduced the N3 capacity that Bob had planned, believing that Intel could restore its production capabilities.

Morris confirmed these events.

There are rumors that Pat later returned to negotiate an increase in N3 capacity.


I think Arrow Lake H is definitely a high volume product line.
I expect Intel's laptop sales to be OK. However, the desktop segment might face challenges. The high-end Raptor Lake and Raptor Lake Refresh have experienced instability issues, and Arrow Lake's reputation is mixed. If Panther Lake is exclusively for mobile, the next desktop lineup won't arrive until Nova Lake, which is slated for 2026/2027. This means Intel might lack a strong desktop solution for over a year.
 
Bob Swan initially planned for a substantial N3 volume. During a 2021 lecture, Morris Chang mentioned that Mark Liu was very pleased with the significant Intel deal. However, Morris cautioned Mark not to celebrate too soon, as production and technology are the core of Intel, and the deal might not succeed. Subsequently, Bob Swan stepped down, and Pat Gelsinger took over.
Did Bob plan to move 100% of advanced node chips to TSMC and stop development beyond a certain node at Intel?

Curious if we have info on that part. I think Intel was finally starting to make *some* progress on 10nm ( ~TSMC N7 ) but I suspect Intel's "N5" node was looking poor vs. the timeframe TSMC was offering N3 capacity. (As of Swan's tenure).
 
Bob Swan initially planned for a substantial N3 volume. During a 2021 lecture, Morris Chang mentioned that Mark Liu was very pleased with the significant Intel deal. However, Morris cautioned Mark not to celebrate too soon, as production and technology are the core of Intel, and the deal might not succeed. Subsequently, Bob Swan stepped down, and Pat Gelsinger took over.

Pat significantly reduced the N3 capacity that Bob had planned, believing that Intel could restore its production capabilities.

Morris confirmed these events.

There are rumors that Pat later returned to negotiate an increase in N3 capacity.


I expect Intel's laptop sales to be OK. However, the desktop segment might face challenges. The high-end Raptor Lake and Raptor Lake Refresh have experienced instability issues, and Arrow Lake's reputation is mixed. If Panther Lake is exclusively for mobile, the next desktop lineup won't arrive until Nova Lake, which is slated for 2026/2027. This means Intel might lack a strong desktop solution for over a year.
To be honest, I use the 13500, 13600K, and 14700K processors. 14700K is used as a 24/7 Linux workstation. I have not experienced any stability issues. I think the stability issue is overblown. The reports originated from companies using these CPUs as cheap gaming servers. It’s obvious that if you stress any components excessively, they will fail. Moreover, Puget Systems’ own data showed that 13th/14th Gen Intel CPUs have similar or even lower failure rates compared to Ryzen machines. These issues were overhyped by some YouTubers. That said, Intel has already addressed these concerns through BIOS updates.

I truly believe that for someone on a budget, choosing 12th or 13th Gen Intel processors with DDR4 memory paired with a Arc B580 GPU makes a very strong case. This setup covers gaming, video editing, and machine learning tasks effectively.

If I were building a new PC now, I would consider Arrow Lake due to its significant reduction in power consumption. I have a 4K ProArt monitor rated at 60Hz, so those 200+ FPS benchmarks at 1080p/720p are irrelevant to my use case. The following video demonstrates that Arrow Lake desktop CPUs are very efficient (timecode: 12:13):

Furthermore, Intel has already resolved some launch issues. For people who want to use Arrow Lake CPUs for gaming, they should now be competitive, with the added benefit of lower power requirements. This is an important consideration because you can pair these CPUs with large GPUs without needing an expensive power supply or for small form-factor builds.

For desktop PCs, a significant segment of the market is commercial use. Once again, Arrow Lake is a strong option for companies to consider due to its energy efficiency.
 
I am aware of that information from Puget. This is the original source. I think this is more to do with 13th/14th gen instability issue rather than ARL-S. But anyway you cut it, this is not good for Intel. One thing to note is, Intel is only launching non K CPUs now in Jan 2025. Its those ones that are popular with OEM.

Per that article,
However, in the second half of 2024, things have been quickly shifting back towards AMD. Intel Core is still used in most of our systems of this class, but AMD Ryzen has been steadily gaining ground. In Q4 of 2024, AMD accounted for just shy of 40% of our client CPU sales, the highest it has been since early 2022. The reasoning behind this is multi-faceted, but contributing factors were the AMD Ryzen 9000 launch in Q3 2024, the somewhat lackluster Intel Core Ultra 200S launch, and the messy Intel Core 13/14th Gen instability issues that were covered throughout a good portion of 2024. Our customers have been more isolated from those problems than the average user due to the way we configure our systems, as we detailed in our Puget Systems’ Perspective on Intel CPU Instability Issues blog post, but it was a very real issue that contributed to us changing a number of our hardware recommendations.

1736648620029.png


That's what I heard as well: Foveros packaging isn't performing as well as expected.
Was this reported in the news somewhere or a rumor? (Only asking, to read about it, please don't take it otherwise). MTL (AI PC) has shipped >20Mu of notebooks so far as of October, 15 2024 (I am assuming LNL shipped very low volume during that period). The number is probably higher now. So I will be surprised that Foveros is the issue.


Many comments about the 9800X3D's productivity miss the point. The 9800X3D is designed specifically for 'premium' gaming, so productivity isn't a major concern for its target buyers. Similarly, we wouldn't critique the gaming performance of Epyc or Xeon processors either.
Exactly, I agree with you. For premium gaming (i.e. if you want gazillion FPS over 100 at 1080P- because you will be GPU bottlenecked in 1440P/4K), 9800x3D is the CPU to go for. Its cheaper and performs better. But if you want a balanced CPU for all workloads, then a 285K, 9950x, 9900x or a 265K is the one to go for.
But blaming 9800x3D shortages on ARL-S performance is really silly. AMD has always had issues with volume of availability + I think scalpers are buying ton of these CPU to sell at higher price. If 9800x3D is not available, why are gamers not buying 9950x, does that make entire non x3D Zen 5 horrible products by AMD's POV? That is my question. AMD will rule the DIY market for gaming this gen. Last gen 14900K was able to match 7800x3D on some gaming titles because it consumed lot of power and ran at very high frequency. And in places like Mindfactory, Intel has not been ahead of AMD since the times of 12th gen.

For premium gaming, there's no reason to buy Arrow Lake (Ultra 9 285K) because its gaming performance has regressed compared to the 14900K. From what I recall, Arrow Lake (15th gen) is the first time Intel has experienced a regression in gaming performance compared to the previous generation in recent years.
And that is what Intel promised while they announced ARL-S. Similar performance as 14th gen (wins some & lose some - problem is lose numbers are higher than wins - Intel says its a fixable issue, we will see if it is true) but at much better efficiencies and thermals. The launch has been catastrophic for sure!. There was a recent update to Cyberpunk 2077 that increased performance of 285K by >15% which now beats 14900K. So we will see now that promised performance updates through 0x114 BIOS and firmware are being released.
 
IMO, Intel doesn't have an answer for 9800X3D at all. That mind share is lost for the foreseeable future.

That doesn't make Intel's decisions stupid though. The growth and the margins are in DC. While I totally agree that Lunar Lake is a very good entry in thin and light laptops, I still find myself having great reservations about Intel's ability to compete in DC with this new design.

Much depends on 18A, Clearwater Forest, and Diamond Rapids.
 
Arrow Lake 200H in-depth performance testing (in Chinese). The graphs are clearly presented and can be viewed without any issues.

Vs. AMD: Strong single thread performance and AI performance.
 
Intel's Arrow Lake fix doesn't 'fix' overall gaming performance or match the company's bad marketing claims - Core Ultra 200S still trails AMD and previous-gen chips

The 'fix' isn't good enough to fix bad marketing claims.
Our testing shows that Intel’s fix for its Arrow Lake chips isn’t effective in addressing the chips’ lackluster gaming performance, at least on the motherboards we tested with. And we found that the Core Ultra 9 285K’s updated gaming performance with one motherboard is now slightly slower than before. Additionally, the required operating system update has improved gaming performance for the prior-gen Raptor Lake Refresh even more than the Arrow Lake chips, so the flagship Core Ultra 9 285K falls even further behind its predecessor. As you'll see in our benchmarks below, the Core Ultra 9 285K still does not meet Intel’s initial gaming performance marketing claims and will not make our list of the best CPUs for gaming.

The Intel ‘Arrow Lake’ Core Ultra 200S launch was marred with lower gaming performance than the company promised, failing to match the prior-gen Core i9-14900K flagship in gaming despite the company’s already-uninspiring claims of parity. Intel pointed to numerous issues as the source of the low gaming performance and issued fixes via both Windows and BIOS patches.

At CES 2025, Intel issued its own benchmarks with claims of up to 25% more gaming performance with the 'fix,' a claim we’ve unfortunately seen parroted by the press. But those gains only apply to certain very specific issues that not all reviewers and users will have encountered. As we'll cover in-depth below, there’s a copious amount of wiggle room in Intel’s dubious claims of performance gains, but our tests show the patches don’t have a tangible impact on the competitive positioning against AMD, and even worse, Arrow Lake now fares worse in gaming against its predecessor.

Conclusion

Here are Intel’s performance claims from a presentation during CES 2025 that outlines the impact of its patch. Several of these issues will not have impacted skilled reviewers, such as using a balanced power profile or not verifying that APO was working (APO impacts a limited number of games that most good reviewers test anyway). On the matter of APO, this was available to reviewers for launch-day reviews - we used it - and merely required one to simply verify it was working. One of the other examples shows an improvement in 7zip, but that has nothing to do with the shortcomings in gaming.

You'll also notice that Intel includes improved performance in Cyberpunk 2077 in the summary slide. However, the company has also said the issue with that title was self-inflicted by the devs and fixed without Intel's prodding. Yet it's chalked up as an Intel win from the 'fix.' Intel also doesn't mention that the 14900K also saw a solid boost from the updated Cyberpunk 2077 game code. The same can also be said about Far Cry 6 - the 14900K benefitted far more than the 285K from the move forward to the new version of Windows.

Intel’s presentation clearly shows the performance impact of the various features being turned on or off, but this is misleading, and Intel’s statements are vague and nebulous. You may or may not suffer from any or some of these issues, and the impact of each issue could vary greatly depending on your setup. All of the claims in the charts above, or none of the claims, or anything in between, could or could not apply to you and your system. Intel also says all of these issues could impact you in one moment in time but not in another, despite nothing (like settings) having been changed. Here’s how Intel puts it:

“The exact performance uplift you will experience with these updates depends on the specific issue, or combination of issues, present on your system when your data was originally collected. Results also depend on your selection of games or applications. Some issues are more elusive than others, more relevant to certain workload characteristics, and/or intermittent in nature.”

That makes pushing back definitively on the claims nearly impossible. Regardless, Intel’s claims of the performance being faster or slower with items toggled on or off still doesn’t clarify the correct issue – the 285K's competitive positioning. You’ll notice that none of Intel's tests above include competing processors, be they a previous-gen Intel part or any AMD part. That's why you don't see important things like the 14900K's increased performance in Cyberpunk 2077 and Far Cry 6.

These tactics and the test results make this whole 'fix' exercise feel more like misdirection and spin than an actual fix. Yes, Intel admits that it failed to make sure that some issues were addressed in a way that would apply evenly across all users, and it has now corrected those issues. However, it still hasn’t brought the chips up to the level of performance it originally promised, and even if it merely matched its previous-gen chips in gaming as it claimed, that's still not great. We expect generational improvements in performance, and anything less is rightly frowned upon.

At the end of the day, Intel’s fixes for its various failings did not demonstrably ‘fix’ the Core Ultra 9 285K’s gaming performance in any meaningful way, and they certainly aren't enough to meet the company’s original marketing claims or change the competitive positioning of its lackluster Arrow Lake chips. In fact, it looks like Arrow Lake is moving backward. Despite its other positive attributes, the Core Ultra 285K simply isn’t the best option for gaming.
 
They patched the wrong processor 14900K is even faster now

They failed at marketing on this one they should have marketed it for Enthusiasts and Heavy user and it would have selled better and they wouldn't have faced this criticism and 14900K is the fastest non X3D gaming chips that's hilarious imo

IMG_20250121_111326.jpg
 
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They patched the wrong processor 14900K is even faster now

They failed at marketing on this one they should have marketed it for Enthusiasts and Heavy user and it would have selled better and they wouldn't have faced this criticism and 14900K is the fastest non X3D gaming chips that's hilarious imo

View attachment 2710
The 14900K is still an excellent processor, especially for productivity. If I were to build a machine now, I would choose an Arrow Lake 200S CPU for its efficiency. This is important because if the combined power consumption of the CPU and GPU falls below certain thresholds in some power supply models, the power supply can operate silently, which is a priority for me.

To be honest, those framerate comparisons don’t make much sense for my setup. I have a 4K/60Hz monitor, so higher frame rates are irrelevant to me. Additionally, once you move beyond 1080p—especially considering that 1440p monitors are quite affordable—GPU bottlenecks become more noticeable, and frame rate differences become less.

I also think focusing on a single metric (1080p or even lower), such as FPS or $/frame, is overly simplistic and doesn’t provide a complete picture.
 
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I think that Intel is on the right track with respect to what needs to be accomplished in their processor core design. They need higher thruput and better efficiency, and Arrow Lake is definitely a step in the right direction.

I say this because as we move forward, I believe that x86 will be increasingly used more for server, workstation, and high end PC while ARM will be increasingly (or continued to be used as) used for lower power, lower performance applications. At any rate, these higher end usages is where the higher margins will be made while at the ultra high volume and low price point product level, things are going to get tight in the margin department .... especially as process improvements drastically slow down.

Now, were Intel really needs to improve Arrow Lake is in the crazy latency department. I think that the CB24 benchmarks highlight how well the new architecture is able to breath when given a high bandwidth, highly parallel load. Its when the poor dear has to handle lots of branches and frequent small fetches that she gets into some doggie doo ;).
 
The 14900K is still an excellent processor, especially for productivity.

For OEMs, it doesn't matter. Intel always sold well, but now it doesn't. More average buyers started to want AMD, thus they now stock AMD, and they are only happy.

An average sale price, and margin is less important than whether the product will ever be bought at all. Older Zen 4 chips are very cheap, and laptops on them sell very well.

Intel sale price is higher than Zen 4 chips, though Zen 5 generation chips are close to Intel's 14th gen in price
 
For OEMs, it doesn't matter. Intel always sold well, but now it doesn't. More average buyers started to want AMD, thus they now stock AMD, and they are only happy.

An average sale price, and margin is less important than whether the product will ever be bought at all. Older Zen 4 chips are very cheap, and laptops on them sell very well.

Intel sale price is higher than Zen 4 chips, though Zen 5 generation chips are close to Intel's 14th gen in price
Where do you hear this 14th gen is definitely cheaper than Zen4
 
Core Ultra 200S with all the fixes benchmarked. I just wish he tested some productivity workloads to see if there is any improvement. Any way I think more re-reviews will drop from other tech reviewers soon.

It's (U9 - 285K) never going to beat 9800x3d. We can only expect that it beats or matches 14900K and matches 9950x in most workloads while being competitive in perf/watt!

 
Fine product (now). Terrible launch. New platform which costs too much.

On laptops it looks much better which lends credence to Arrow Lake being a portability platform which was “scaled up” for desktop.

Intel really needs to get it together with Panther / Nova Lake. Can’t say this too many more times before this ship takes on too much water… Intel cannot under any circumstances cede more ground in laptops.
 
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