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Currently, China is the only place capable of building that many Iphones. It would take 5+ years to get that capability in the US. THEN we can talk about cost. If the cost was the exact same, you could not manufacture All the Iphones in the US today. How that is solved will be interesting...
Intel lost after 14nm and Samsung lost Apple due to failure. So if TSMC fails, then Intel will be able to jump in. That and price leverage is why almost all companies are "looking" at Intel. Intel will have technologies.... we will see who buys it. At this point it looks like we will not see...
@Daniel Nenni
"David also mentioned a push for more Intel content in future chips meaning less TSMC."
He also clearly said intel will outsource 20-30% going forward.
I can assure you that Intel products group likes working with TSMC. It is likely that Intel will outsource more to...
This has already been determined (as of now).
1) DZ just said today that at break even point in 2027, Intel external business will be low to mid single digits (1-5B). Total foundry business is about 20B so DZ says 10%
2) Intel Product group purchases wafers at market price, not cost. that was...
David also mentioned that part of Intels problem was that the previous CEO was getting filtered information from managers and Engineers and that it was too optimistic (ie not CEOs fault).
That literally made me look up the definition of "gaslighting". yup.... thats the word I was looking for.
Couple items:
1) Intel just presented. They are planning Low to mid single digits Billions (1 to 5B) in external revenue in 2027 to break even. this includes packaging, UMC and Tower.
2) Foundry is absolutely pulling down valuation. They will have lost $40B+ by 2027. That is unprecedented...
I would look at the recent earnings report to get an idea of Margins by process type. It would be good to ask what the foundry margins will be on 18A in 2026/7.
At first I thought this was a fab. its a wafer factory. I thought they already has a silicon site in he US? is this JUST SOI factory?
Who are the primary SOI users today?
If 18A does not ramp externally, you cannot say "lets try again on 14A". the stock price will drop ever further below book. We are just talking about foundry.... Intel foundry will lose billions more in 2026. What does Fitch say that foundry revenue and expenses are in 2026?
Since the numbers...
On 20A, the process was announced and repeatedly displayed. I'm not the one who called it the first GAA BSPD process and different from 18A. But we may see the same claim again soon.... get ready for "14A has always been our real focus".
Intel still doesnt have money to pay for foundry (please...
Intel foundry needs real external customers who have real volume and are really happy on 18A to continue. While it might be nice to say "18A is proof of concept and the next nodes will have sales and grow" you cannot build it and spend it and still have no one come for 18A (the great inflection...
I have published external revenue forecasts based on the S-curve. 100% agree it should have inflection
however:
1) Intel did not get the commitment in 2021 or 2022 that was expected. the few plans made disappeared.
2) Intel advanced packaging decreased over the past 1-2 years. And that was...
they are not on track to what Pat said was going to happen. They are on track to what Dan and others said was realistic. essentially external is minimal until late 2027.
Now the finances don't line up. Product revenue also dropped a ton since 2021 (FYI other companies did not). 2021 plan was...
Andy Grove was CEO when I started at Intel. Arguably the greatest semiconductor expert of all time (I was a MOSFET Device engineer at the time and memorized his book) AND the greatest management guru of all time (I memorized High output management and Only the paranoid). And his life story is...
splitting up is very wise.
I am not sure but I have heard that x86 licensing isnt really a thing. people dont really want it (I am not a ARM/x86 expert).
Making CPUs is the money maker and should be the third item.
