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I seem to recall hearing MJ say that this miss was the result of putting too much focus on getting the Lunar Lake launch right and under resourcing Arrow Lake as a result. If that is true, I suspect we won't see that happen again on her watch.
For all Gelsinger's faults I still felt BK was worse. In my mind, he more than anyone, was responsible for the 10nm debacle and gave up the technology lead that led us to where we are now.
Personally I worry more about the availability of rare materials. From wikipedia:
China is the main source for many critical minerals needed for semiconductors, including:
Gallium: China accounts for 98% of global raw gallium production.
Germanium: China accounts for 67% of raw germanium...
I haven't seen any specific reports that Intel's inflexibility has cost them a specific engagement, but I wouldn't rule it out. Discounting Intel 3 that isn't being pushed very hard for foundry, Intel has one process to offer with no variants. I expect it will take a while to have multiple...
That is a very fair criticism. I'm viewing any process that isn't cutting edge as legacy. I was looking at recent comments by Naga that 18A development was essentially done and now they were focusing you yield improvements. But 18A isn't in production yet and Intel 3 is Intel's leading edge...
I'm not a design guy by any means, what I have heard is that their EDA tools on the processes prior to Intel 3 are proprietary, and therefore, not industry standard. It is also my understanding that the process design kits are also not industry standard. Both of these issues were significant...
The problem is Intel 14 and Intel 7 have to be designed on Intel's proprietary systems. They would require customers to invest in those design systems, knowing that nothing else would ever be build using them. Unless Intel were to invest in completely replacing their design systems for those...
Yes, Intel has a decade plus of foundry "experience", but prior to Gelsinger's arrival it wasn't experience that adds value. Intel insisted on using their design workflows using outdated and proprietary systems. No one was seriously interested in that and given what TSMC was offering, no one...
To my mind he was just trying to do too much too fast. When you are practically printing your own money, you can do whatever you want. Today's Intel has to lose that mindset and quickly.
Apologies, seems I didn't express myself clearly. I'm don't think Intel is likely to force cost cuts, but I do think their presence could keep TSMC from raising prices as much as they might otherwise. Each technode costs more than the last, so everyone is going to be faced with ever increasing...
I agree that TSMC doesn't have to worry about Intel stealing a large amount of their volume. But I do think that Intel poses a potential threat.
Intel has decades of proof points that they can be a technology leader. If they stay on track with 18A and 14A they may be the tech leader again...
I would agree that most of the improvement should happen over the next 12 months for yield, but the need to drive down cost will go on much longer, since 18A is intended to be a long life foundry node. That will be a new space for Intel to operate in as traditionally their process life had a...
I think "yield" is one of the key paradigm shifts for Intel needs to internalize. What is considered acceptable yield for a CPU is different from what is considered acceptable for, say a cell phone chip. For their CPU business Intel could fuse off a bad processor and still sell the die as a...
Q3 is 6-9 months away. If 18A is still having significant issues in 6 to 9 months, the Intel is toast.
In HVM doesn't mean being shipped to customers. A product goes into HVM well before product launch. A couple of quarters in HVM before product launch is not unusual to build up initial...
I have to be somewhat skeptical of a Korean news source that says Samsung has a better process. Not that it is impossible, just that it is hardly an impartial source. And as was pointed out here before, Broadcom didn't cancel their orders, they just said the 18A wasn't ready for HVM.
Ann Kelleher is still with the company. The recent announcement regarding her was with respect to a long term successor. Though no clues regarding what "long term" was were offered.
I believe that should be expected. He said that the process is basically sorted out, which leaves 4-6 months to get the yields up before they start cranking out volume for an EOY launch. For the first half of the year Naga indicated that the focus is on closing those gaps and providing...
With Intel insisting the plan remains in place the only thing I can come up with is a disagreement about how fast Gelsinger was investing in capacity. I expect to see Intel slow down spending on filling their fabs with tool. I expect that to show up in when they start moving tooling into the...
The EU isn't the only country that needs to take a long hard look at its immigration policy. I had a brilliant Korean co-worker that went back to Korea after two years because he wasn't able go get his elderly parents to the US so he could take care of them.
