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Will China Beat US in Chips? Intel going fab-lite?

Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
Presentation by Robert Maire of Semiconductor Advisors at the SEMI ASMC 2020 Virtual Conference:


Robert Maire on SemiWiki.com

About Semiconductor Advisors LLC
Semiconductor Advisors is an RIA (a Registered Investment Advisor),
specializing in technology companies with particular emphasis on semiconductor and semiconductor equipment companies.
We have been covering the space longer and been involved with more transactions than any other financial professional in the space.
We provide research, consulting and advisory services on strategic and financial matters to both industry participants as well as investors.
We offer expert, intelligent, balanced research and advice. Our opinions are very direct and honest and offer an unbiased view as compared to other sources.
 
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Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
One comment on the China / Taiwan situation. I disagree with Robert on this point. I do not see China taking control of Taiwan and TSMC. Semiconductors are much too important to the world (not just the US). The Hong Kong reference is a different situation completely.
 

hskuo

Active member
One comment on the China / Taiwan situation. I disagree with Robert on this point. I do not see China taking control of Taiwan and TSMC. Semiconductors are much too important to the world (not just the US). The Hong Kong reference is a different situation completely.
Actually, it is Robert's misunderstanding about the situation between Taiwan and China.
 

hskuo

Active member
Another interesting China data point:


The GF GTC event is coming up so I'm sure we will hear more about it then.
I remembered that fab was planned to manufacture FDSOI wafer and need China government support, but unfortunately GF is out of gas to support new fab oversea. Please share with us their specialty technology strategy in upcoming GF GTC.
 

jaiyam

New member
Thank you for sharing. I would like to add that GoFlo is 100% owned by the sovereign wealth fund of UAE, which btw also owns a large share of AMD. GloFo had a 7 nm division, but UAE wanted them to make more money and provide return on their investment, So, the 7nm division was fired and a couple of EUV machines sold. The US cannot expect other countries to bat for its strategic interests with their money. So, we do come back to money, after all.
 

Fred Chen

Moderator
Recent SPIE literature checks (2016-2019) indicates mainland China is roughly at Samsung 10nm level. Contrary to previous 10nm, their multipatterning is not as aggressive (they have been developing only DPT rather than the expected triple patterning). One possible reason is that Samsung, Intel, and perhaps even TSMC used older lithography tools and resists at the time, compared to what is available now.

In 2016, they were already trying 44nm metal 1 pitch (2D) by LELE: https://www.spiedigitallibrary.org/...uble-patterning/10.1117/12.2218711.full?SSO=1

More recently, LELE seems relaxed for unidirectional 48 nm metal 2 pitch: https://www.spiedigitallibrary.org/...zone-for-metal-layers/10.1117/12.2514783.full
 
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prime007

Active member
Looks like that number may have gone up. Ultimately, the question is can China develop alternative (and equivalent/superior) technologies to replace U.S.-developed technologies? Everything I've read seems to indicate they can't/won't be able to. However China has the ability to cause us pain/misery (Example: Pharmaceuticals and agriculture purchases ) in other ways too. Ultimately, I imagine there will be a compromise/stalemate....but we need to wean ourselves (and develop alternatives) from China. China, under Xi Jinping, has become a global threat rather than a peaceful contributor.

From Bloomberg:
Xi Jinping is pledging an estimated $1.4 trillion through 2025 for technologies ranging from wireless networks to AI.

"The Chinese leadership realizes that semiconductors underpin all advanced technologies, and that it can no longer dependably rely on American supplies. In the face of stricter U.S. restrictions on chip access, China's response can only be to keep pushing its own industry to develop." said Dan Wang, tech analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics.
 

Arthur Hanson

Well-known member
A serious vulnerability for US technology is rare earth element use in magnets and lasers.
It's the processing of rare earths that is the challenge, for they are located in many places including one of the largest, richest deposits in California. Tech advances in use of materials will also change the game and have been at an ever increasing rate. Recycling of high tech waste advancing will also be key and hardly ever mentioned.
 

Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
Very happy to see it. The US and other governments are sure to follow:


Semiconductors will rule the world economy, absolutely!


Looks like that number may have gone up. Ultimately, the question is can China develop alternative (and equivalent/superior) technologies to replace U.S.-developed technologies? Everything I've read seems to indicate they can't/won't be able to. However China has the ability to cause us pain/misery (Example: Pharmaceuticals and agriculture purchases ) in other ways too. Ultimately, I imagine there will be a compromise/stalemate....but we need to wean ourselves (and develop alternatives) from China. China, under Xi Jinping, has become a global threat rather than a peaceful contributor.

From Bloomberg:
Xi Jinping is pledging an estimated $1.4 trillion through 2025 for technologies ranging from wireless networks to AI.

"The Chinese leadership realizes that semiconductors underpin all advanced technologies, and that it can no longer dependably rely on American supplies. In the face of stricter U.S. restrictions on chip access, China's response can only be to keep pushing its own industry to develop." said Dan Wang, tech analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics.
 

Portland

Active member
I think trump will be reelected. Trump has said some foolish things but Biden has no clue what it takes for people to have jobs, housing, .... etc. The public has been barked at by progressives so long that they want nothing to do with them.

Intel in Oregon isn't coercing Israelis to come like the past. The campus will be downsized and cuts will happen in local services. Oregonians won't appreciate what they had until its gone.
 

Fred Chen

Moderator
Very happy to see it. The US and other governments are sure to follow:


Semiconductors will rule the world economy, absolutely!

A little strange to see the administration being selective on research.
 

Fred Chen

Moderator

The strange thing here is the multi-billion funding is supposed to be from the government, and it's not enough? Maybe the government has to be more careful going forward.
 
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Fred Chen

Moderator
And this just in:


Ok, so somehow they got the idea they are delivering capability similar to Intel or TSMC (??).
 
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