Not really arrogance - I'm very impressed with what China has been able to do in housing, autos, solar panels, batteries and EVs. But I'm also cognizant of how they got there, and the devastation (millions of excess housings units, an overhang that has cut family wealth by 30%, plus hundreds of shuttered factories that are still being paid for by local government financing vehicles). I'm not sure they can be successful with the "every city tries" approach in an industry that has a very high IP stack as table stakes for playing at the leading edge, plus very few joint ventures to transfer residual knowledge of that IP from.
TechanaLye assesses China as 3 years behind TSMC
- Thread starter Fred Chen
- Start date
Probably they never would have been able to do it if they had access to TSMC and western equipment. Now all bets are off.
China before the tech embargo happened was moving slowly and surely to match and beat the west.
As others noted Huawei and their HiSilicon arm was at leadership in phones, network and communications leveraging access to leading edge western tools and manufacturing like TSMC. SMiC had embarked on a catch up too.
China most surely would have matched US by now if the west hadn’t castrated them. Look only at their cities and infrastructure as to what they drive and did. Same with cars, EV, etc. They have the human capital, drive, education and central government policy to drive this.
The west saw their rise and was scared to death so we castrated them. As other have said we will see in the next ten years can two independent technologies power houses be developed. I’d argue they have great scale and resources that barring war or internal destruction they will prevail.
Collaboration and fair competition would / should be a better approach but sadly that takes two to play.
As others noted Huawei and their HiSilicon arm was at leadership in phones, network and communications leveraging access to leading edge western tools and manufacturing like TSMC. SMiC had embarked on a catch up too.
China most surely would have matched US by now if the west hadn’t castrated them. Look only at their cities and infrastructure as to what they drive and did. Same with cars, EV, etc. They have the human capital, drive, education and central government policy to drive this.
The west saw their rise and was scared to death so we castrated them. As other have said we will see in the next ten years can two independent technologies power houses be developed. I’d argue they have great scale and resources that barring war or internal destruction they will prevail.
Collaboration and fair competition would / should be a better approach but sadly that takes two to play.
China has large scale and resources, but not when compared to US + EU. Specifically talking about EUV. EUV has multiple issues (light source, mirrors, pellicle, and resist) which are each almost insurmountable. With all of its resources, China could probably solve one or more of those issues, assuming they went all out. But if they can't solve all of them, then all of the money would have been wasted. Which makes it very difficult to even go all out in the first place.
I disagree. China > US and EU combined. In PPP terms, the Chinese economy is only a little lower than US + EU combined. However most measures of GDP significantly underestimate China and overestimate the US both in nominal and PPP terms.
Europe is on the decline and I expect in my lifetime most European countries will be considered poor by most metrics relative to Asian countries. It's already heading in that direction.
China will be able to figure out EUV. They will do it faster then most people expect.
jim_22222
Banned
China's progress in the development of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology is a subject of considerable interest and concern on the global stage, particularly due to the geopolitical implications and the strategic importance of semiconductor manufacturing.
- 1 Political Concern: China's advancements in EUV technology could potentially raise alarms in the United States, which might view rapid progress as a threat to its technological leadership, particularly in the semiconductor industry. If China were to achieve significant breakthroughs or become self-sufficient in EUV lithography, it could lead to heightened tensions and possibly trigger further trade restrictions or an escalation in the ongoing trade disputes. The U.S. government is likely to closely monitor China's EUV capabilities to assess any shifts in the balance of technological power.
- 2 EUV Technology Complexity: While EUV lithography is indeed a technology that has been around for about 15 years, it remains one of the most complex and sophisticated tools in chip manufacturing. The technology involves intricate physics and chemistry to achieve the precision required for cutting-edge semiconductor production. Although it is not an insurmountable technological challenge, the development of EUV systems requires significant expertise, sustained investment, and a robust supply chain, which are not easily replicated.
China's progress in EUV lithography technology is indeed nuanced. While EUV is a complex field that requires a deep understanding of physics and chemistry, it's important to recognize that China has been building its technical foundation in these areas for years. The country has invested heavily in research and development, and its educational institutions have been producing a growing number of graduates with expertise in the necessary scientific disciplines.
- 3 Talent Drain: Over the past 4 decades, China has sent(or let go)a huge number (98% maybe) of its brightest scientific minds to study and work in the West, particularly in the United States. Many of these individuals have contributed to advancements in their fields while working for U.S. institutions or have transitioned into different industries. This talent drain means that China has historically lost many of its most capable researchers and engineers, which could impact its ability to innovate and develop complex technologies like EUV lithography independently.
Wen Chang - Applied Materials | LinkedIn
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Guoheng Zhao - KLA | LinkedIn
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Yi Cui - Stanford University | LinkedIn
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Kevin Zhang - TSMC | LinkedIn
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- 4 Confidential Programs: It is reported that China may have secret programs dedicated to the development of EUV technology. These programs are likely to be highly sensitive due to the strategic importance of semiconductor manufacturing and the potential for geopolitical repercussions. The confidentiality surrounding these initiatives makes it difficult to assess their progress or the extent of China's capabilities in EUV lithography. However, the existence of such programs underscores the significance that China places on achieving breakthroughs in this area.
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Asia is a big place , which countries you talking about?
The lack of meaningful jobs is a massive issue for all countries and a global sink and a greater divide between the haves and have nots will only increase.
Maybe some parts of the world will decrease at a slower rate than others so giving the mirage of catching someone up.
As for China and semicon as a stand alone topic , more power to them as they put in massive resources , it is good for all when Govts invest.
China wouldn't limit itself to looking at EUV:
Chinese 2.7 nm wavelength SSMB light source disclosed at FLS2023 in Switzerland
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/373557442_Useful_formulas_and_example_parameters_set_for_the_design_of_SSMB_storage_rings Chinese development of the steady-state microbunching (SSMB) light sources for scientific studies and (presumably) lithography has progressed to the point where...
semiwiki.com
jim_22222
Banned
the ssmb thing a good chance is just a hoax.
Chinese academia, like many other academic systems worldwide, has been criticized for placing excessive emphasis on publication metrics. This pressure to publish can sometimes lead to issues with academic integrity, as researchers may feel compelled to prioritize quantity over quality, or in the worst cases, engage in practices such as data fabrication or plagiarism to meet publication demands.
The "publish or perish" culture is not unique to China; it is a global academic phenomenon. However, the rapid expansion of China's higher education sector and its ambition to become a world leader in science and technology have amplified these pressures. The intense focus on publication metrics is often linked to career advancement, funding, and reputation, which can create an environment where cutting corners becomes tempting for some.
Furthermore, there is a perception that there is a broken link between academia and industry in China. This disconnect can manifest as a lack of practical application for academic research, with innovations and discoveries not being effectively translated into commercial or industrial applications. This gap can be attributed to several factors, including differing incentives and goals between academia and industry, a lack of collaborative infrastructure, and potential misalignments in research focus and market needs.
To address these issues, there have been calls for reform within Chinese academia to foster a culture that values integrity and quality of research over mere publication numbers. Additionally, efforts are being made to strengthen the ties between academic research and industry to ensure that scientific advancements lead to tangible benefits and contribute to economic growth.
The concerns of over-publication have been raised in the West as well.
Rather than a hoax, SSMB is likely just well-hyped, for the sake of publicity. They don't even have to use it for lithography, it could be just a next-gen synchrotron.
jim_22222
Banned
There is some historical background to this. Alex Chao is actually a professor at Stanford. How can a Stanford professor support the Chinese EUV program?
Yeah, this leads into will academic collaborations be scrutinized and controlled the same way as chips.
There is a lot more than measuring area! One must look at product PPA and then break down and normalize to the transistor density.
What can’t be directly followed up even if you have that is yield.
China is actually further behind today than it was 5 or ten years ago. They can and have less access to leading edge tools of all kind to do leading edge silicon and design. Ten years ago HiSilicon was well on the way to parity and one could argue SMIC was too, now they never will catch up.
Oh the easiest way to catch is rather simple just embargo their rogue province
Yeah I wish they had shown some cross-sections for example. I think the company was claiming there was parity with performance and area, but not mentioning the the other P (power), or maybe that information is already known?
Laughable for a mobile that power and performance are the two most important things. Die size to first order is yield/cost and a challenge for the vendor. For the consumer all about performance and battery life.
My personal MacBook lasts a day, my work laptop is always going room to room with a charger
When I visited colleges kids with Macs all untethered and the poor windows x86 all plugged in.
jim_22222
Banned
again, politics could play an important role in this. the Chinese govt might prefer stability over tech superiority.
If they put US govt in a too embarrassing situation and lead to some sort of repercussions it could bring bigger trouble to themselves.
If they manage to keep or bring back some of their oversea talents and lure some foreign experts with a few billion dollar.
It won't be very difficult to overcome the tech problems they encounter.
Wen Chang - Applied Materials | LinkedIn
Summary:<br>18 years of semiconductor industry experience.<br>4 years of solar power… · Experience: Applied Materials · Location: Sunnyvale · 487 connections on LinkedIn. View Wen Chang’s profile on LinkedIn, a professional community of 1 billion members.
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Guoheng Zhao - KLA | LinkedIn
Innovative solutions to challenging problems in optical inspection and metrology for… · Experience: KLA · Education: Rochester Institute of Technology · Location: Palo Alto · 500+ connections on LinkedIn. View Guoheng Zhao’s profile on LinkedIn, a professional community of 1 billion members.
www.linkedin.com
Yi Cui - Stanford University | LinkedIn
I am running a research lab at Stanford University. My research includes nanotechnology… · Experience: Stanford University · Location: Stanford · 500+ connections on LinkedIn. View Yi Cui’s profile on LinkedIn, a professional community of 1 billion members.
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Kevin Zhang - TSMC | LinkedIn
Experience: TSMC · Location: Taiwan · 500+ connections on LinkedIn. View Kevin Zhang’s profile on LinkedIn, a professional community of 1 billion members.
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China has multiple research efforts into making an EUV lithography machine. These are fairly well documented. The work is not secret just because people in the West cannot read publications written in Chinese.
China has a strong talent and industry in lasers. So they can definitively make a machine given enough time and resources.
This is a presentation from 2015 for example.
You can tell for how long they have been working on this.
China has a strong talent and industry in lasers. So they can definitively make a machine given enough time and resources.
This is a presentation from 2015 for example.
You can tell for how long they have been working on this.
jim_22222
Banned
2015 was still under Obama.
recent development is much more sensitive. any leakage could lead some institutions being added to the entity list.
hist78
Well-known member
again, politics could play an important role in this. the Chinese govt might prefer stability over tech superiority.
If they put US govt in a too embarrassing situation and lead to some sort of repercussions it could bring bigger trouble to themselves.
If they manage to keep or bring back some of their oversea talents and lure some foreign experts with a few billion dollar.
It won't be very difficult to overcome the tech problems they encounter.
Wen Chang - Applied Materials | LinkedIn
Summary:<br>18 years of semiconductor industry experience.<br>4 years of solar power… · Experience: Applied Materials · Location: Sunnyvale · 487 connections on LinkedIn. View Wen Chang’s profile on LinkedIn, a professional community of 1 billion members.
Guoheng Zhao - KLA | LinkedIn
Innovative solutions to challenging problems in optical inspection and metrology for… · Experience: KLA · Education: Rochester Institute of Technology · Location: Palo Alto · 500+ connections on LinkedIn. View Guoheng Zhao’s profile on LinkedIn, a professional community of 1 billion members.
Yi Cui - Stanford University | LinkedIn
I am running a research lab at Stanford University. My research includes nanotechnology… · Experience: Stanford University · Location: Stanford · 500+ connections on LinkedIn. View Yi Cui’s profile on LinkedIn, a professional community of 1 billion members.
Kevin Zhang - TSMC | LinkedIn
Experience: TSMC · Location: Taiwan · 500+ connections on LinkedIn. View Kevin Zhang’s profile on LinkedIn, a professional community of 1 billion members.
A true engineer, especially those great engineers, like the freedom to think. They love truth and prefer the environment that encourages them to constantly explore and innovate without boundaries and limitations.
This type of environment is harder to come by these days in mainland China.
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