Nvidia 10-Q Easter Egg RE $100B OpenAI deal

[Daniel Nenni]

Buried in the NVDA 10-Q:

"There is no assurance that we will enter into definitive agreements with respect to the OpenAI opportunity."

So the $100 billion OpenAI deal announced 8 weeks ago with White House photos may not happen? I wonder how many other multi billion dollar AI deals may not happen? Check the 10-Qs!

'Big Short' investor Michael Burry takes aim at Nvidia after its earnings blowout​

• - Michael Burry of "The Big Short" once again took aim at Nvidia after its earnings beat on Wednesday.
• - He questioned the longevity of its chips, its stock dilution, and the "give-and-take deals" in AI.
• - Nvidia's bosses dismissed talk of an AI bubble and touted their chips' lifespan on an earnings call.

Michael Burry—famous for his bet against the housing bubble and portrayed in the movie The Big Short—has voiced strong skepticism over Nvidia despite the chipmaker’s explosive recent results. Nvidia delivered blow-out earnings and gave a bullish outlook, sending its stock sharply higher. Yet Burry argues the performance masks underlying risks. He claims older Nvidia GPUs are being kept in service longer and that customers are paying higher energy costs for less efficient equipment—pointing out that “just because something is used does not mean it is profitable”.

Beyond hardware lifecycle concerns, Burry questions Nvidia’s accounting and ecosystem deals. He highlights what he views as extensive stock-based compensation dilution (he estimates ~$112 billion since 2018) and a “circular” web of deals among AI firms that may mask true end demand. In short (pun intended): Even as Nvidia is riding the AI wave, Burry sees echoes of past tech bubbles and warns that the underlying fundamentals may not justify the hype.

'Big Short' investor Michael Burry takes aim at Nvidia after its earnings blowout

Michael Burry of "The Big Short" fame once again went after Nvidia over its chips' longevity, its stock dilution, and "give-and-take deals" in AI.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[lefty]

I wonder how many other multi billion dollar AI deals may not happen?

I believe the AMD deal is the same. It depends on OpenAI meeting milestones

 

[Daniel Nenni]

I believe the AMD deal is the same. It depends on OpenAI meeting milestones.

If OpenAI revenue is $13B in 2025 and is not expected to break even until 2030, how are they going to afford all of this announced hardware? Are they all "circular" deals?

 

[hist78]

If OpenAI revenue is $13B in 2025 and is not expected to break even until 2030, how are they going to afford all of this announced hardware? Are they all "circular" deals?

They will be getting support from additional investors from the US and around the world, including but not limited to kings and queens, princesses, sovereign funds, private equity funds, governments, and anyone who is afraid of missing the train.

 

[count]

If OpenAI revenue is $13B in 2025 and is not expected to break even until 2030, how are they going to afford all of this announced hardware? Are they all "circular" deals?

Exclusive: OpenAI lays groundwork for juggernaut IPO at up to $1 trillion valuation

OpenAI is considering filing with securities regulators as soon as the second half of 2026, people familiar with the matter said.

www.reuters.com

 

[Daniel Nenni]

Exclusive: OpenAI lays groundwork for juggernaut IPO at up to $1 trillion valuation​

I forgot about that. $20M in revenue (2026) with break even in 2030 and a $1T valuation? Sounds a bit DotCom ish to me. Especially with all of the competition coming up from Google, AIx, DeepSeek etc... These datacenters should be AI agnostic so swapping software from one AI platform to another should not be too difficult. Maybe Sam Altman has something clever up his sleeve?