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Intel’s Pivot: Why It’s Betting on UMC—Not TSMC—in the Legacy Node Wars

XYang2023

Well-known member

Intel’s Pivot: Why It’s Betting on UMC—Not TSMC—in the Legacy Node Wars

Source:CommonWealth Magazine

In a surprising twist, Intel has teamed up with Taiwan’s UMC to develop a 12nm process platform—dodging TSMC while tapping into a unique Taiwanese capability: reverse-engineering TSMC-compatible processes without infringing on patents. As China floods the market with mature-node chips and Intel struggles to fill underused fabs, this partnership offers mutual survival—and maybe something more.

“While most people associate Taiwan’s semiconductor dominance with TSMC, two veteran academics argue that UMC’s story may be even more pivotal.”

That’s the bold thesis put forward by former ITRI (Industrial Technology Research Institute) president and NTHU honorary professor Chin-Tay Shih(史欽泰), along with former CEPD (經建會) minister and NTU economics professor emeritus Tain-Jy Chen(陳添枝).

Their new book, From the Periphery to Innovation: How Taiwan’s Semiconductor Industry Became the Heart of the World (《從邊緣到核心》), offers one of the most in-depth analyses to date on the island’s chip industry. The English edition is expected to be released in the U.S. by the end of the year.

One of the book’s most intriguing arguments is the claim: “No UMC, no TSMC.”
UMC, spun off from ITRI’s Electronics Research and Service Organization in 1980, turned a profit in its very first year by riding the wave of the electronic watch boom. That early success, Shih and Chen argue, gave the government the confidence to back a second, more ambitious semiconductor initiative—the VLSI Project—which directly led to the founding of TSMC.

Semiconductors, by nature, require constant reinvestment in next-generation technologies. While UMC was profitable, it wasn’t generating enough to fund future expansion. Between 1982 and 1987, the company accumulated NT$1.73 billion in profits, far short of what was needed to build a new fab. In 1983, it requested an additional NT$10 billion in capital from its largest shareholder, the government, but the request was denied.

At the time, UMC followed the IDM model, vertically integrating product design, manufacturing, and sales. But as Chen put it, “Because we’re a small country with small companies, we could only focus on niche products like music cards and electronic watch ICs, which didn’t generate much profit.”

That realization prompted a strategic pivot. The government’s NT$10 billion investment ultimately went into a fab that adopted a pure-play foundry model—what would become TSMC. A few years later, UMC also transitioned to a foundry model.

Today, UMC is the world’s fourth-largest contract chipmaker. But it’s once again facing a dilemma not unlike the one it encountered 40 years ago: without continued investment in more advanced nodes, it risks losing its competitive edge.

In 2017, when Jason Wang(王石)and S.C. Chien(簡山傑) took over as co-presidents, UMC announced it would no longer invest in nodes more advanced than 12nm, citing limited customer demand. Since then, its process roadmap has largely plateaued at 28nm.

Avoiding TSMC, Entering the Legacy Node Battlefield

UMC’s strategy was to avoid direct competition with TSMC by pulling resources out of advanced nodes and instead focusing on “making an impact in mature processes,” as Jason Wang stated in media interviews.

For example, UMC became a dominant force in OLED display driver ICs thanks to its early lead in developing 28nm high-voltage processes.
However, the U.S.-China tech war has dramatically upended UMC’s game plan. As China prepares to flood the market with mature-node capacity, the once-safe 28nm-and-below segment is turning into a red ocean.

UMC’s Surprise Alliance with Intel Brings Three Key Advantages

In January 2024, UMC announced a surprise partnership with Intel to develop and manufacture a 12nm process platform—an area where Chinese foundries have struggled to gain traction. The project will be housed in Intel’s Ocotillo campus in Arizona, using Fabs 12, 22, and 32, with foundry services expected to launch in 2027.

For Intel, whose CPUs rely on cutting-edge nodes, these 12nm lines are considered legacy. In the past, such lines were either upgraded or phased out. Now, the UMC partnership offers a way to monetize underutilized assets. “It’s a symbiotic deal,” one foreign equity analyst told me. “Intel needs utilization, UMC needs capacity.”

Over the past year, Taiwanese engineers traveling to Arizona haven’t all come from TSMC. UMC has dispatched some engineers of its own, frequently seen at Intel’s Phoenix-area campuses.

UMC CFO and spokesperson Chi-Tung Liu(劉啟東) confirmed in May that nearly all of the company’s critical R&D efforts are now centered on the 12nm platform, which is currently in the customer onboarding phase.

According to a source familiar with the program, the partnership brings three major advantages.
  1. 12nm is the most advanced node that doesn’t require EUV lithography, making it a sweet spot in terms of price-performance. “Many customers stick with 12nm simply because it’s more cost-efficient,” the source said.

  2. The node falls under U.S. export controls, making it significantly harder for Chinese foundries like SMIC to obtain the necessary equipment and EDA tools. This allows 12nm to act as a defensive buffer as China scales its mature-node output.

  3. While UMC publicly positions the Intel collaboration as a hedge against China, “deep down, it’s about grabbing market share from TSMC,” the source said. “TSMC essentially owns the 12nm space. GlobalFoundries doesn’t offer T-like (TSMC-compatible) processes, so its only 12nm customer is AMD.”
He added, “How much UMC can take from TSMC will be the key indicator of whether this 12nm strategy succeeds.”

The first batch of customer products will be critical. If they succeed, others still on the fence may follow. And if demand grows, Intel has placed no cap on the fab capacity UMC can use.

Why Did Intel Choose UMC?

Why would Intel risk IP leakage by effectively leasing its legacy fabs to a Taiwanese partner?

The answer: Intel wants to learn how to build “T-like”processes, and UMC knows how to do it.

 
He added, “How much UMC can take from TSMC will be the key indicator of whether this 12nm strategy succeeds.”

UMC has 30% margins and TSMC will be close to 60% this year? The math does not workout unless TSMC is okay with UMC getting some "T Like" legacy business. I remember working with UMC a while back and they were not allowed to say TSMC. They have been saying T Like for 20+ years. If TSMC did have a problem with UMC they could have sued for IP theft. Process design rules are IP.

The other thing to consider is that UMC does not have T Like FinFET experience. They failed at 14nm.
 
The other thing to consider is that UMC does not have T Like FinFET experience. They failed at 14nm.
But Intel was the first to introduce FinFET and should know a thing or two about how to adapt that. If this is a true joint venture and not just UMC essentially renting fab space then I see a huge potential for both players here. Intel loses nothing by sharing FinFET know-how at this point as they move to gate-all-around transistors, while UMC can teach Intel a great deal about how to run a foundry and develop a process for a wide user base.
 
UMC joint venture with Intel in AZ has a geopolitically purpose as well: TW-only fabs have a certain risk from the CCP, while diversified TW + one has lower risk. "One" could be US, Singapore, or Japan.
 
He added, “How much UMC can take from TSMC will be the key indicator of whether this 12nm strategy succeeds.”

UMC has 30% margins and TSMC will be close to 60% this year? The math does not workout unless TSMC is okay with UMC getting some "T Like" legacy business. I remember working with UMC a while back and they were not allowed to say TSMC. They have been saying T Like for 20+ years. If TSMC did have a problem with UMC they could have sued for IP theft. Process design rules are IP.

The other thing to consider is that UMC does not have T Like FinFET experience. They failed at 14nm.

The UMC-Intel partnership on 12nm needs to overcome a serious financial obstacle: how to price 12nm foundry services low enough to attract customers, and how to split the profits between UMC and Intel.

If the partnership prices its services only slightly lower than TSMC’s, customers won’t come. They won’t switch from TSMC to Intel either.

On the other hand, given the already depressed profit margins, a 50-50 profit split between UMC and Intel would make it a low-margin business.

To make matters more difficult, most of the fab equipment and R&D expenses for TSMC’s 7nm, 10nm, and 12nm nodes have already been fully depreciated. We should expect TSMC to continue lowering prices to keep those fabs' utilization high. How can UMC and Intel respond to this challenge?
 
The UMC-Intel partnership on 12nm needs to overcome a serious financial obstacle: how to price 12nm foundry services low enough to attract customers, and how to split the profits between UMC and Intel.

If the partnership prices its services only slightly lower than TSMC’s, customers won’t come. They won’t switch from TSMC to Intel either.

On the other hand, given the already depressed profit margins, a 50-50 profit split between UMC and Intel would make it a low-margin business.

To make matters more difficult, most of the fab equipment and R&D expenses for TSMC’s 7nm, 10nm, and 12nm nodes have already been fully depreciated. We should expect TSMC to continue lowering prices to keep those fabs' utilization high. How can UMC and Intel respond to this challenge?
Is there a thing called tariffs?
 
Maybe it is better to wait for 1/8 to make those claims.

You can definitely wait until August 1, or September 1, or one day in the 2026, or 2027. Who knows 🙂

Taiwan and US has long and strong economic, political and military relationships that benefits both countries. It's very hard to change it negatively.
 
You can definitely wait until August 1, or September 1, or one day in the 2026, or 2027. Who knows 🙂

Taiwan and US has long and strong economic, political and military relationships that benefits both countries. It's very hard to change it negatively.
Then it is your guess.
 
On the other hand, given the already depressed profit margins, a 50-50 profit split between UMC and Intel would make it a low-margin business.
Doesn't this also imply a 50-50 split of the costs? I don't see how this would drop the margins if you cost drop proportionally to your profits, doesn't your profit margin stay the same? Or is there some financial voodoo going on here that a poor dumb engineer like me who prefers rational math wouldn't see?

To make matters more difficult, most of the fab equipment and R&D expenses for TSMC’s 7nm, 10nm, and 12nm nodes have already been fully depreciated. We should expect TSMC to continue lowering prices to keep those fabs' utilization high. How can UMC and Intel respond to this challenge?
This Intel/UMC joint-venture may have it's challenges, but this isn't one of them. The fabs being used here are F12, F22 and F32. F32 is the newest of the lot and came online in 2007. All these fabs and all this equipment is already fully depreciated.

As to R&D costs, compared to a cutting edge node, I would expect these to be minimal. Don't forget that Intel spent 5 long years refining their 14nm process while they fumbled around with their 10nm process fiasco. 14nm yields extremely well and Intel has explored the solution space pretty thoroughly.
 
Doesn't this also imply a 50-50 split of the costs? I don't see how this would drop the margins if you cost drop proportionally to your profits, doesn't your profit margin stay the same? Or is there some financial voodoo going on here that a poor dumb engineer like me who prefers rational math wouldn't see?


This Intel/UMC joint-venture may have it's challenges, but this isn't one of them. The fabs being used here are F12, F22 and F32. F32 is the newest of the lot and came online in 2007. All these fabs and all this equipment is already fully depreciated.

As to R&D costs, compared to a cutting edge node, I would expect these to be minimal. Don't forget that Intel spent 5 long years refining their 14nm process while they fumbled around with their 10nm process fiasco. 14nm yields extremely well and Intel has explored the solution space pretty thoroughly.

For simplicity, let’s focus on net profit margin, which already reflects all major costs, such as equipment depreciation, materials, labor, administration, marketing, and taxes.

Assume the UMC–Intel 12nm joint venture prices its services at the same level as TSMC and achieves the same 40% net profit margin.

For every $100 of revenue from the 12nm-class foundry services:

TSMC: net profit = $40

Assuming a 50-50 profit split between UMC and Intel:
  • Intel: net profit = $20
  • UMC: net profit = $20

However, in a real world scenario, the UMC–Intel foundry venture would likely need to offer significantly lower pricing and accept thinner profit margins than TSMC to compete in the mature 12nm market, even before accounting for generally higher manufacturing costs in the US. Moreover, neither Intel nor UMC has the financial strength to subsidize this 12nm node's customers.

2024 Net Profit Margins:
  • TSMC: 40.5%
  • UMC: 21%
  • Intel: –35.3%

Intel’s business model is fundamentally built on high margin operations. So, how long can this joint venture sustain depressed profit margins? Sooner or later, Intel’s executives and board may determine that their time, resources, and capital would be better allocated to projects with higher return potential.

Don't forget, Samsung foundry is there to compete too.
 
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A lion share of fabless cannot pull a high-end FINFET project, a lot will prefer to stay at dry litho for the cheapness of masks for low volumes.

The lion share of all chips will never use FINFET nodes for near zero benefit for low speed, small die size, utilitarian ICs.
 
Taiwan and US has long and strong economic, political and military relationships that benefits both countries. It's very hard to change it negatively.

We have just finished negotiating our new Ipod factory with communists, it's a very good deal, just your sovereignty, and no expense at our side.
Except for economic side, the relationship between US and Taiwan are bad, and always were. It's an enormously long story of backstabbing, and US trying to bargaining something out of PRC at ROC's expense. For all intents, and purposes, in a normal, logical view of the world, Taiwan and the US are economic opposites, but are forced allies in politics, and war, but the reality is the opposite: US is surrendering its life insurance for a want of electronic toys.


Why ROC even went with USA after the monumental backstabbing after WW2 to begin with, and not played its own game? Taiwan needed American nukes, and bomber force, that's all to it.

If PRC will attack ROC, ROK, or Japan, and USA will chicken out of nuclear war, then Taiwan doesn't need USA.

The older generation of politicians are very venal, and cynical about returning the favour to USA, but US is very fortunate that the current ruling party simply doesn't have that many octogenarian leaders.
 
There are no punitive tariffs imposed on semiconductors imported from Taiwan. The people around Trump are probably smart enough to know that such tariffs would be self-destructive to US' interest.

Not being self-harming would be logical, but the politics is not. Engineers have hard time understanding people not driven by logic.

Smarter people know how to achieve goals rationally, but the rationality of the goals is never a given. Substance abusers are capable of absolutely incredible ingenuity in getting their next dose. And some countries can be very ingenious in satisfying their craving for electronic toys too.
 
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