Tesla Must Be Protected

[KevinK]

Still, there will be more than enough markets that are shielded by insane tariffs on BYD to maintain competitiveness for their national brands to flourish IMO.

I’m not so sure about that part. If Chinese BEV makers continue to erode ICE and BEV auto sales of EU, US and Japanese model in the rest of world, and a couple decide to become global brands by building factories and tariff-conforming supply chains in places like Mexico, Turkey, Brazil, as BYD is already doing, there’s not going to be much room to prosper. And doubly so if legacy auto makers remain rooted in far more expensive to manufacture ICE’s.

 

[hist78]

I disagree.

Tesla has stagnated. Tesla has milked its success. It was already rapidly losing share to the traditional ICE OEM's before its fearless leader decided to alienate over half of the world by becoming the poster child for right wing politics.

Losing Tesla will do nothing to the US economy. The many other automakers (many of them ALSO U.S. based companies) will pick up the volume (as they already are).

The BYD offerings are quite impressive to be sure. While some of my collogues believe that their incredible prices are wholly due to the Chinese government putting its fingers on the scale, I tend to believe that this is only partially true. BYD has also created a vertically integrated supply chain that is impressive to say the least.

Still, there will be more than enough markets that are shielded by insane tariffs on BYD to maintain competitiveness for their national brands to flourish IMO.

Tesla won't be going away any time soon, but I expect (as do most analyst) that their share of the EV market will settle down around 10-15% in the long run while the traditional OEM's will pick up the rest.

Just my thoughts. YMMV.

A significant change in the automobile industry could be the contract manufacturing business model, similar to the foundry/fabless model in the semiconductor industry. With the maturity of EV technology, what would stop Foxconn from doing what TSMC does?

As far as I know, Foxconn is building its capability for it in the past several years.

 

[KevinK]

A significant change in the automobile industry could be the contract manufacturing business model, similar to the foundry/fabless model in the semiconductor industry. With the maturity of EV technology, what would stop Foxconn from doing what TSMC does?

That seems like a natural course of events. Musk built Tesla vertically integrated because they were producing something very different, at least in a lot of the core systems and body chassis design. But now that Tesla has a few platforms, it’s all about cost reduction and volume with minor redesign and OTA software updates. Maybe sell part interest in the factories to a Foxconn or other, license the platforms (like IP) and disaggregate into design and manufacturing, with many makers leveraging the factory/car foundry and IP.

 

[hist78]

That seems like a natural course of events. Musk built Tesla vertically integrated because they were producing something very different, at least in a lot of the core systems and body chassis design. But now that Tesla has a few platforms, it’s all about cost reduction and volume with minor redesign and OTA software updates. Maybe sell part interest in the factories to a Foxconn or other, license the platforms (like IP) and disaggregate into design and manufacturing, with many makers leveraging the factory/car foundry and IP.

Foxconn Gearing Up To Build Four New EVs, Including Two From Japanese Brands​

• - Foxconn expects to ink contracts with two Japanese brands in the coming months.
• - It is also getting ready to start building its in-house Model B and Model C EVs.
• - The Taiwanese company has expressed interest in purchasing a stake in Nissan.

Taiwanese contract manufacturer Foxconn has revealed it’s close to inking deals with two Japanese car manufacturers to design and manufacture a pair of EVs. While limited details about these new models are known, they will be brought to life alongside two of Foxconn’s in-house EVs, namely the Model C and Model B.

Source:

MSN

 

[XYang2023]

BYD Seal 06 DM-i wagon exposed in China ahead of launch

BYD Seal 06 DM-i wagon is a 4.85-meter family driver that can enter European markets. It has an e-motor for 215 hp and EV range of 83 km.

carnewschina.com

BYD Seal 06 DM-i sedan version - USD13,800, 2.9L/100km (fuel consumption when the battery is depleted), PHEV, electric range of 83 km under CLTC conditions, roughly the same size of an Camry

https://www.orbea.com/au-en/ebikes/road/gain/cat/gain-m30

An electric bicycle costs roughly half of the car.

 

[KevinK]

Foxconn Gearing Up To Build Four New EVs, Including Two From Japanese Brands

Yeah ! I know that Fiskers were also build by a contract manufacture, Magna. We might be on the verge of a number of automakers going “fabless” at least for their EV models. Could this be the end of some IAMs (Integrated Auto Manufacturers) and the beginning of lots of new creative fabless auto design companies ? And is there something we can glean from the rise of fabless chip companies ???

 

[XYang2023]

CATL chassis platform

SDV

Revolutionizing automotive software development with Intel and AWS | Amazon Web Services

The move to software-defined vehicles (SDV) opens the door to shorten OEM vehicle design cycles by at least 6 months, enabling innovation for new tools and processes for automotive software development. To help stay competitive on a global scale, OEMs are adopting cloud-based development...

aws.amazon.com

Autonomous driving

Polestar selects Mobileye to bring autonomous technology to Polestar 4 | Mobileye News

Mobileye Chauffeur™ technology platform to be integrated into Polestar 4

www.mobileye.com

Maybe some car manufacturers can transform to contract manufacturers.

A car company can a build a dedicated brand targeting a specific group of customers based on the above components and supply chain.

 

[hist78]

Yeah ! I know that Fiskers were also build by a contract manufacture, Magna. We might be on the verge of a number of automakers going “fabless” at least for their EV models. Could this be the end of some IAMs (Integrated Auto Manufacturers) and the beginning of lots of new creative fabless auto design companies ? And is there something we can glean from the rise of fabless chip companies ???

Nowadays, the prices of new cars (both EVs and gasoline powered) are quite high, and affordable models are often unavailable in dealers' inventories. This creates a great opportunity for new, inexpensive, and good quality EV brands to enter the market. These EV brands could come from either incumbent players or new companies adopting a contract manufacturing business model.

 

[Jumper]

The funny thing about Tesla is that it allowed not only chinese manufacturers but also traditional manufacturers to catch up. Maybe not completely but in lot of ways. Now they will have to bring lot of new innovations to the table and also live through Elon's venture into politics.

 

[XYang2023]

I think for Tesla, not having a PHEV option is not ideal. For example, in Australia, we don't have a fully established charging network.

'"I feel that the size of Australia, geographically, is so large that I think that the PHEV is definitely a more logical choice for a lot of people," Mr Smitherman says.'

'A proliferation of product': BYD bets big on Australia as Chinese brand details new-model tsunami that will take the fight to Toyota, Mazda and Kia - Car News

BYD says it's just getting warmed up in Australia, promising a "proliferation of product" with a focus on "utes and SUVs" as it seeks to make good on its promise to dethrone Toyota at the top of the new-car sales charts. The brand currently has six models in Australia – the Dolphin, Atto 3...

www.carsguide.com.au

 

[chihwei]

So sad to see the only competitive US EV maker is in the political trouble. All others are incapable to compete with Chinese EV and robotic companies.

 

[Barnsley]

The funny thing about Tesla is that it allowed not only chinese manufacturers but also traditional manufacturers to catch up. Maybe not completely but in lot of ways. Now they will have to bring lot of new innovations to the table and also live through Elon's venture into politics.

Didnt musk offer up Tesla designs to all in order to increase EV adoption and also push the industry standard being the Tesla standard?

 

[benb]

TSLA at least partly benefits from the same China effects as BYD. I wonder if the forum knows you can't just buy an ICE car and get a license plate in China; most license plates are reserved for BEVs. China's infrastructure, 240 V outlets in the home is double the US standard 120 V 15 A. They can build chargers where needed because the CCP owns the land and state and local governments are under the CCP.

All this to say, property rights, older electrical infrastructure, state and local governments not under federal control, all make business harder for TSLA outside of China. If I was TSLA I would be looking to expand in China, not the US.

TSLA runs toward problems that Apple and most every other kind of technology company stays clear of. Apple has little to no manufacturing in the US apart from high end low volume desktops. Cynical window dressing for political effect. And they are loved because of it, and their stock price is high.

There is a path of least resistance that nearly everyone follows--design in the US, build outside the US. The path forward for BEVs most likely will follow that script. But it's a bad deal for the US, since most of the value added is not in the US, and that is why the model exists--it benefits Taiwan, it benefits China. It's the Dellification of the USA.

 

[Arthur Hanson]

Well, you can buy Tesla stock or car to show your support. And I believe in most region, they are doing great still. Same statement can be made towards any American company. And it's backfiring Tesla badly since you've got a close association between its brand and Elon.

If I buy a car, the Tesla will be my first choice, by then Tesla should have a far better battery for I keep my cars about twenty years and my current vehicle is a Honda CRV 2015 with about 36K miles. I hardly drive since everything is close where I live in Nevada.

 

[KevinK]

240 V outlets in the home is double the US standard 120 V 15 A.

You do know that pretty much every residential unit in the US has either 240V split-phase service or 208V three phase (two phases) ? The bigger issue is service amperage/power from the grid.

TSLA runs toward problems that Apple and most every other kind of technology company stays clear of. Apple has little to no manufacturing in the US apart from high end low volume desktops.

The battle Tesla faces in China is battling scores of BEV competitors who are subsidized, and barely profitable (except BYD). Musk sadly decided to retreat from the 20K Model 2 to make the POS CyberTruck instead.

https://www.marketplace.org/2024/09/09/how-can-china-make-evs-that-sell-for-less-than-20000/

 

[DepthFirst]

Tesla is in trouble because of mismanagement by Elon which frankly is in direct violation of the fiduciary duty’s of a CEO. Elon’s childish insults and extreme political stances have completely killed Tesla’s sales in Europe, and it’s destroying its market even in the US. It is on track to become a shell of its former self all because of ego and mania.

 

[rgrindley]

Tesla used to have a technological advantage. Not any more. Batteries, low-cost, self-driving, charging infrastructure, there are comparable or better competitors in all of these both domestic and Chinese.

What Tesla had in spades was only-mover advantage. They were the only company trying to innovate when nobody else was interested. There was no competition, and Tesla *was* innovating and gaining a massive lead. No longer. Plenty of competition in all areas and Tesla no longer has the sandbox all to itself.

Robotaxis and robots are the new hope? Check out Waymo. While Tesla continues with the "vision" to do self-driving on the cheap and only use cameras to achieve human-level driving, the rest of the industry knows that radar and (maybe) lidar are needed to achieve better-than-human driving.

And for robots, you can buy a Unitree today in the US.

Look, Tesla used to be great. Now there is competition and I would argue it is ahead. But competition is good, and the last thing we need is the government trying to pick winners or protect companies for political reasons. If the government feels it needs to protect a segment (batteries, rare earth minerals), that may be necessary. But a specific company? Never.

 

[Xebec]

That seems like a natural course of events. Musk built Tesla vertically integrated because they were producing something very different, at least in a lot of the core systems and body chassis design. But now that Tesla has a few platforms, it’s all about cost reduction and volume with minor redesign and OTA software updates. Maybe sell part interest in the factories to a Foxconn or other, license the platforms (like IP) and disaggregate into design and manufacturing, with many makers leveraging the factory/car foundry and IP.

Tesla (automotive) is arguably a hybrid already as the largest single expense of the car (battery cells) are sourced three ways:

- Inhouse manufacturing (4680 cells - Cybertruck/Semi)​

- Joint agreement with Panasonic for 2170/4680 cells (Gigafab Nevada is co-owned between Panasonic and Tesla) (All models)​

- Purchase as a customer" LFP batteries from CATL (some Model 3/Y)​

​

They also source a lot of 12V parts from others; it's why the Cybertruck is a hybrid of 48V and 12V architectures. Accessories are also mostly third party; example the "Tesla" floor mats are rebranded WeatherTech. However, the motors (much smaller expense than the battery) are built in-house.

On the solar side, they're "fabless" -- they use LFP batteries now in PowerWall 3 (purely outsourced), and the solar panels are from third party OEMs such as QCell.

Of course the software for everything is internally developed, but that's what makes Tesla's infotainment and electronics systems years ahead of legacy carmakers.

I don't think outsourcing any part of manufacturing would make any sense just yet. They're able to make EVs for a much lower cost than any other maker except the Chinese; adding more hands will just increase complexity and cost. Example: "VW about 30 hours to produce one of their new ID. 3 EVs, whereas Tesla needs just 10 hours to make a single Model 3." (Note that this is the older Model 3 while the newer 3/Y take substantially less time).

 

[Xebec]

Tesla used to have a technological advantage. Not any more. Batteries, low-cost, self-driving, charging infrastructure, there are comparable or better competitors in all of these both domestic and Chinese.

Who can build an EV for even similar cost to Tesla other than the Chinese?

Also which OEM self-driving system can compete with FSD? (Most magazines that rate Tesla "Self driving" lowly are actually using Autopilot - which is a 7 year old software stack, and not FSD).

 

[OneEng]

A significant change in the automobile industry could be the contract manufacturing business model, similar to the foundry/fabless model in the semiconductor industry. With the maturity of EV technology, what would stop Foxconn from doing what TSMC does?

As far as I know, Foxconn is building its capability for it in the past several years.

It's my home turf .

Automotive, unlike electronic boards, has much of its IP in building the vehicle in mass. Building boards is filled with standardized rules that are common across manufacturers. If you walk the assembly line in an automotive plant, you find lots of custom automation. If you look at the equipment suppliers and interfaces across different OEM's (or even plants within an OEM), they are not at all common.

GM is likely the most uniform. Toyota is the most simplistic (which isn't the worst idea by the way ... but they also don't offer as many options as GM by a long shot).

Another issue I see with this is that people generally like having a dealership near to them that they can go to when something is wrong with their car. Also, after warranty is over, people expect to be able to buy a new part at AutoZone.

My point is that Automotive is quite a different animal from electronic boards.