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TSMC has reported July revenue of NT$124.56 billion (US$4.47 billion), down 16.1% from the record high set in June.
TSMC's July revenue represented a 17.5% increase from a year earlier. The foundry's cumulative 2021 revenue through July grew 18.1% from a year ago to NT$859.11 billion.
TSMC expects to post revenue of between US$14.6 billion and US$14.9 billion in the third quarter of 2021, which is an 11% sequential increase at the midpoint. The forecast is based on the exchange rate assumption of US$1 to NT$27.90.
TSMC has revised upward its revenue growth outlook this year to above 20%, as the foundry segment and the overall semiconductor market (excluding memory) are expected to increase 17% and 20%, respectively
TSMC's July revenue represented a 17.5% increase from a year earlier. The foundry's cumulative 2021 revenue through July grew 18.1% from a year ago to NT$859.11 billion.
Maybe I’m missing something, but it seems that sequential QoQ would not be the metric to look at, but instead these YoY metrics. Those point to continued growth, no?
Maybe I’m missing something, but it seems that sequential QoQ would not be the metric to look at, but instead these YoY metrics. Those point to continued growth, no?
You are correct, I'm just wondering why MoM or QOQ would drop if there is a wafer shortage. It should be constant or growing since TSMC is adding capacity and orders are supposed to be backlogged.
On the last call TSMC said customers are carrying higher inventory so instead of JIT (just in time) they are doing JIC (just in case) inventory levels. Which again points to a bubble at some point when customers start using up inventories instead of pre ordering.
TSMC make wafers non stop. But the revenue was recorded when customer actually take them. Apple's shipment timing had great impact for TSMC monthly revenue. TSMC quarterly revenue outlook are very accurate. So one month down means next month will be very good. (For example, Apple pick up those inventory in early Aug.)
End customers (retail channels) know shortage over or not better than Foundries. Most IC design houses will keep their previous orders in TSMC even they sense shortage is close to the end. The reason is that they want to keep their reputation in TSMC at this moment.
Month to month data is choppy due timing of shipments/sales.
I don't think the shortage is quite over yet.
I think it's interesting that TSMC revenue is up "only" 20% year over year. It's clear that the company is prioritizing it's relationships over trying to increase prices and gouge customers. They could have easily pushed through a 15-20% price increase but didn't.
TSMC make wafers non stop. But the revenue was recorded when customer actually take them. Apple's shipment timing had great impact for TSMC monthly revenue. TSMC quarterly revenue outlook are very accurate. So one month down means next month will be very good. (For example, Apple pick up those inventory in early Aug.)
End customers (retail channels) know shortage over or not better than Foundries. Most IC design houses will keep their previous orders in TSMC even they sense shortage is close to the end. The reason is that they want to keep their reputation in TSMC at this moment.
I agree but I would not gauge this year's TSMC monthly numbers versus last year's since there was not a reported shortage last year. I would look at 2021 monthly numbers to better understand TSMC's maximum wafer output. I'm assuming TSMC was at 100% utilization in 1H 2021. So let's see what 2H 2021 brings us from TSMC. Apple is using N4 this year for the iPhone launch so that is separate from > N4 revenues.
From what I understand from the finished chip supply chain there is some hording and price gauging going on which is causing false shortages. Those companies who get packaged chips directly from TSMC (Apple, AMD, etc...) will not have that problem.
I agree but I would not gauge this year's TSMC monthly numbers versus last year's since there was not a reported shortage last year. I would look at 2021 monthly numbers to better understand TSMC's maximum wafer output. I'm assuming TSMC was at 100% utilization in 1H 2021. So let's see what 2H 2021 brings us from TSMC. Apple is using N4 this year for the iPhone launch so that is separate from > N4 revenues.
From what I understand from the finished chip supply chain there is some hording and price gauging going on which is causing false shortages. Those companies who get packaged chips directly from TSMC (Apple, AMD, etc...) will not have that problem.
backlogs for mainstream processes are still 12m+, 24m+ on the extreme end.
The best metric to see is the rate of backlog growth/shrink.
Can't say for sure, but my own gut feeling is that backlogs still keep slowly growing industry-wide, as people now think completely differently about keeping inventories, and importance of microchips in general.
There are 3 different timeframes to the shortage: Today, right now; in 6-12 months; and in 12-36 months. The today, right now: Bitcoin price drop helped, China bitcoin miner crack down helped. Seriously, you can buy a graphics card now, for just $100-$200 more than the list price. So it’s not great but the vice grip has loosened.
In 6-12 months we’ll have to wait and see, but I think it will be more balanced, the US may be slowing down and Europe and other Ex-US becoming growth engines. That’s good, because more capa will be available to handle any spikes or Texas schenanigans. Intel in particular looks like they will have more capa and they have announced aggressive plans that seem realistic but, wait and see. This is Intel’s last chance before a hedge fund gets them and tears them up.
In the 12-36 month timeframe TSMC is the ruler. We could have a recession which is often when Samsung invests. It could be a general recession or a logic chip recession. Today seems a lot like 1998 or 1999, the stock market is euphoric, it could be a bad one eventually.
