Semiwiki on LinkedIn Semiwiki on Facebook Semiwiki on Twitter Register / Log in 
Array
(
    [content] => 
    [params] => Array
        (
            [0] => /forum/threads/buying-opportunity-of-tsm.5690/
        )

    [addOns] => Array
        (
            [DL6/MLTP] => 13
            [Hampel/TimeZoneDebug] => 1000070
            [SV/ChangePostDate] => 2010200
            [SemiWiki/Newsletter] => 1000010
            [SemiWiki/WPMenu] => 1000010
            [SemiWiki/XPressExtend] => 1000010
            [ThemeHouse/XLink] => 1000970
            [ThemeHouse/XPress] => 1010570
            [XF] => 2021770
            [XFI] => 1050270
        )

    [wordpress] => /var/www/html
)

Buying opportunity of TSM?

U

user_2013101

Banned
TSM has been in correction for about two weeks. The following media reports do not help.

March 8, 2015
TSMC Has Peaked, Pacific Crest Downs To Sell - Asia Stocks to Watch - Barrons.com

March 10, 2015
TSMC February revenues fall 28% on month
Click to expand...

These negative news are not unusual. Majority of times, TSM has been rated neutral to sell, while its prices doubled in the past 5 years.

Buried in the Digitimes news story: TSMC’s Jan/Feb combined revenue grew 52% y/y. It’s highly likely that 1Q, the traditional slow season, will be flat to slightly better than 4Q, and that, as a result, the entire year may reach 20% growth – better than the 15% projected at Jan conference call.

TSM corrected to the Jan low right before the conference call, amid numerous rumors of losing orders from Apple, QCOM, AMD, to NVDA. And then exploded upward into multiple all time high’s.

History does not repeat exactly, but it may rhythm. Perhaps accumulate TSM now and expect gains after mid April conference call, which is only about 5 weeks away.


[h=4]Disclaimer [/h]
The posters are not licensed financial advisers. The forum posts are an expression of personal opinions, and does not constitute recommendation of investments whatsoever.
 
Last edited:
You would be better to ask your dog than me on stock tips but what I can tell you is that TSMC has the best foundry FinFET process right now in regards to performance and yield. Unfortunately it was a little late but they will make up time in 2016 just as Morris Chang said on the conference call. Seriously, the TSMC 16nmFF+ SoCs will kill the others and the next generation 16nm FinFET process (yet to be named) will be even faster and adopted much wider that 16nm FF+. And that brings us to 10nm in 2017 and my fingers and toes are crossed TSMC's blistering run will continue. I hope that helps. :cool:
 
Last Sunday I read that article "</SPAN>TSMC Has Peaked, Pacific Crest Downs To Sell - Asia Stocks to Watch - Barrons.com</SPAN>" and thought to post a comment on Barrons. I didn't do that because I thought it's waste of time. A reputable publication like Barros should have asked Pacific Crest if they or those customers they advised hold any position in TSMC's stocks or options. Otherwise that Barrons' reporter is no more than an average rumor teller on the street.</SPAN></SPAN>
 
From SA:


  • TSMC (NYSE:TSM) had February revenue of NT$62.65B ($1.99B), -28.1% M/M due to seasonality and three fewer days, but up 33.8% Y/Y.
  • Y/Y growth slowed from January's sky-high 69.4% and December's 39.9%, but remained above the levels seen from January-August 2014. February's numbers suggest the tailwind from Apple A8 CPU orders hasn't dissipated.
  • TSMC's figures come a day after Pac Crest downgraded the foundry giant on a belief major customers are saddled with high inventories, and will be cutting orders. Shares fell 1.7% in regular trading, following both chip stocks and broader equity markets lower.
 
TSM looks good from a technical swing-trader perspective (which is my approach to the markets). Foreign (for US investors) dividend-paying stocks will make your taxes hell, so keep that in mind. Whatever positive or negative news you may or may not pay attention to, it affects the stock price. You can see the market's true judgement in the stock price movement. And this is no weak chart: TSM has several times in the last 12-18 months tested the 200 day moving average and rebounded, which shows the underlying strength. Add to this the current discounted price--more than 5% below the 10 day moving average--and you have a high potential of making + 3-7% on this setup.
 
In the past month, HiSilicon Technologies, the silicon division of China telecom giant Huawei, taped out at TSMC a 16nm quad A72 device with more than 50 million instances. It has a 16nm A57 device also made in the fab and already shipping in systems, said Mary Ann White, director of product marketing for Synopsys’ Galaxy Design Platform.

March 10, 2015
FinFETs Race Toward Silicon | EE Times
 
user_2013101 said:
In the past month, HiSilicon Technologies, the silicon division of China telecom giant Huawei, taped out at TSMC a 16nm quad A72 device with more than 50 million instances. It has a 16nm A57 device also made in the fab and already shipping in systems, said Mary Ann White, director of product marketing for Synopsys’ Galaxy Design Platform.

March 10, 2015
FinFETs Race Toward Silicon | EE Times
Click to expand...

Quoting press releases can be bad for your health. :rolleyes:
 
Full disclosure, I have held a substantial TSM position for years. I have also traded TSM. The future for TSM is also in mems and they are the leader. Morris Chang stated a couple of years ago that MEMS are one of the greatest future opportunities and TSM is the leading producer of MEMS. This will open up huge new opportunities for the semi sector that will be larger than phones. MEMS will penetrate every field and almost every device in the future. TSM will not be or ever has been a get rich quick stock.
 
I put down the telephone to my broker telling him to buy more TSM opened my iPad and clicked on this blog. Thanks guys!
 
Brianhayes, TSM has solid financials, a good dividend and solid growth. Like many stocks it follows the sentiment of the market, correlation is the term used. My personal opinion is that it has solid upside and limited downside at this point.
 
[h=4]Island reversal? [/h]

Yesterday, March 10, TSM gapped down below the 50 day moving average; today, it gapped up above. In term of chart pattern, it’s called island reversal. Maybe, we have seen the correction bottom yesterday. See the linked chart.

TSM - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

However, don’t expect TSM to move straight up, especially when the broader market is currently somewhat under pressure.

P.S.
INTC also rebounded today. I posted on INTC yesterday too, but it seems to attract little interests.
 
Daniel Nenni said:
From SA:


  • TSMC (NYSE:TSM) had February revenue of NT$62.65B ($1.99B), -28.1% M/M due to seasonality and three fewer days, but up 33.8% Y/Y.
Click to expand...

In addition to February has 3 less calendar days than January, TSMC and all factories in Taiwan observed 6 days of Chinese New Year holidays. Also Feb 27 is Taiwan's memorial day. That means 25% of February were holidays in Taiwan. This is a significant impact to any factories (including TSMC) operate in Taiwan.
 
Last edited:
Daniel Nenni said:
You would be better to ask your dog than me on stock tips but what I can tell you is that TSMC has the best foundry FinFET process right now in regards to performance and yield. Unfortunately it was a little late but they will make up time in 2016 just as Morris Chang said on the conference call. Seriously, the TSMC 16nmFF+ SoCs will kill the others and the next generation 16nm FinFET process (yet to be named) will be even faster and adopted much wider that 16nm FF+. And that brings us to 10nm in 2017 and my fingers and toes are crossed TSMC's blistering run will continue. I hope that helps. :cool:
Click to expand...

When you say "foundry", are you including Intel, or viewing them outside of this context since they primarily make their own chips, and do very little work for other companies at the moment?

If so, if you had to make a guess, how much better would you say Intel's 14nm is in performance. Density doesn't seem to be very strong, and cost is probably high. Power use hasn't been as good as expected either, particularly since Broadwell was designed to work well at lower power scenarios.

I'm thinking of jumping in on TSMC, and I always base my purchases on technology (and it's worked great for me), so I'd appreciate your opinion vis-a-vis Intel's 14nm process. Of course, I'd understand it's just an opinion, and do my due diligence (which this is actually part of).
 
Intel is not yet a "real" foundry.
14nm Intel has a density advantage over TSMC 16nmFF+ and SAM/GF 14nmLPP, but so far, while the foundries already showed a serious performance and power reduction boost over 20nm and 28nm (see the galaxy s6 exynos 7420 SoC at 14nm), Intel only managed to improve the power consumption (core M). On top of that, Intel process is more complicated than the foundry one, and that could be a problem for the customers. They shape their process for their own CPU business, so it is less flexible, from a design point of view, for generic or customized SoC applications.
 
There are a lot of smart people on SemiWiki and there has been a lot of debate on process technologies but the bottom line is the end product. The Apple A8 and A8x set new records turning traditional SoC leaders into followers @ 20nm. The Apple A9 and A9x will be more of the same.

See: Intel Versus TSMC 14nm Processes

One thing I can tell you about TSMC is that they have the best ecosystem for fabless semiconductor design. They also have excellent customer skills. TSMC 28nm and 20nm dominated the fabless industry. Samsung beat TSMC to FinFET and they will be rewarded for that and it is a good lesson for TSMC to learn. The next version of TSMC 16nm will again dominate the industry in 2016 (my opinion). It is too soon to tell for 10nm but I can assure you TSMC is working night and day to make it happen.

My personal view of the current foundry landscape and all of the people throwing rocks at TSMC:

"I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve."

D.A.N.
 
Last edited:
Personally, I don’t think TSMC’s 16nm is late. It is scheduled right in time for its customers. Perhaps Samsung will produce more 14nm chips in 2Q15 than TSMC’s 16nm chips. That may be all the “leads” that Samsung will ever have.

By the end of the year, TSMC is likely to produce more 16nm chips than Samsung’s 14nm chips. Several times more next year.

In addition, TSMC’s 16nm achieved better performances and yields.

At 10nm, Samsung will fall behind TSMC by a wide margin, in all aspects – time-to-market, performance, yield, density, versatility, etc.
 
user_2013101 said:
Personally, I don’t think TSMC’s 16nm is late. It is scheduled right in time for its customers. Perhaps Samsung will produce more 14nm chips in 2Q15 than TSMC’s 16nm chips. That may be all the “leads” that Samsung will ever have.

By the end of the year, TSMC is likely to produce more 16nm chips than Samsung’s 14nm chips. Several times more next year.

In addition, TSMC’s 16nm achieved better performances and yields.

At 10nm, Samsung will fall behind TSMC by a wide margin, in all aspects – time-to-market, performance, yield, density, versatility, etc.
Click to expand...



I read two online articles (in Chinese) last night.

First article: Rumor Alert!! Please Don't get too angry for whatever reasons!!

��電逆轉，��蘋果部分次世代 A9 處�器訂單 | TechNews 科技新報
It claimed Apple in February reviewed TSMC A9 production yield and quality. Afterwards Apple decided to move a significant amount of A9 orders from Samsung to TSMC due to TSMC's surprising high yield rate.

Second article:
http://money.chinatimes.com/news/news-content.aspx?id=20150312000231&cid=1204
Deutsche Bank analyst raised the TSMC's target stock price to NT$191 a share in TWSE (around NT146 ~ 148 now).
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top