You are currently viewing SemiWiki as a guest which gives you limited access to the site. To view blog comments and experience other SemiWiki features you must be a registered member. Registration is fast, simple, and absolutely free so please, join our community today!
Thanks Daniel for the MECE list. Within the list, my eyes are on the R&D investment levels and in that particularly the rising cost of fabs and therefore the chips - the chips will never be expensive as their is a strong 'buyer force' driving it. So, How will the industry respond? Two things come into my mind - the breaking up of the value chain or more consolidation. Is that the case or am i just way offline?
I think the rising invesement cost is limited to some specific areas of semiconcudor industry (more precisely traditional ASIC design). There are other areas where the investment requirement is much lower, but there is headroom to make the difference.
For example SiP design (or 2.5D IC) does not need so much investment both from design as well as manufacturing point of view. But the technology has huge potential due to need of integration of multiple dies manufactured in different processes in single package. If any system has RF, memory and digital SoC and one is looking for smaller system size, faster sysmtem performance and low power consumption SiP or 2.5D can be potential solution instead of having a new SoC having all the three functionalities. Off course there are challenges like power dissipation low yield etc. But with continuous research those challenge will go.
Another promising areas where the investment requirement is lower is MEMS and sensor. Intelligent sensors are catching market and one can enter in that area with a lower fund.
That was good one Michael , of course that is absolutely true.
I do agree with gposner that future is impossible to predict and taking this one step ahead, the dilemma for the industry players is that what strategy to adopt in such situation when the cost of fabs is rising and the chips costs are being driven down.
Another answer might be "The ITRS 2011 Executive Summary of the technology roadmap" But by now they probably all ignore forecasts, just wait and see and try to acquire or merge with the winners.