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TSMC 3Q25 Earnings Conference Presentation Materials & Press Release

Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
TSMC's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance Amid AI Boom

On October 16, 2025, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) held its third-quarter earnings conference, showcasing robust financial results driven by surging demand for advanced chips, particularly in AI and high-performance computing (HPC). As the world's leading contract chipmaker, TSMC reported net revenue of US$33.10 billion, exceeding its guidance range of US$31.8-33.0 billion. This marked a 10.1% increase quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) from Q2's US$30.07 billion and a impressive 40.8% year-over-year (YoY) growth from Q3 2024's US$23.50 billion. In New Taiwan Dollars (NT$), revenue reached NT$989.92 billion, up 6.0% QoQ and 30.3% YoY, bolstered by a favorable exchange rate of 29.91 NTD/USD.

Gross margin improved to 59.5%, surpassing the 55.5%-57.5% guidance and rising 0.9 percentage points (ppts) QoQ, thanks to higher capacity utilization and cost efficiencies. Operating margin climbed to 50.6%, up 1.0 ppt QoQ, while net profit attributable to shareholders soared to NT$452.30 billion, a 13.6% QoQ and 39.1% YoY jump. Earnings per share (EPS) hit NT$17.44, reflecting strong profitability. Return on equity (ROE) annualized at 37.8%, up 3.0 ppts QoQ. Wafer shipments grew to 4,085 thousand 12-inch equivalents, up 9.9% QoQ and 22.4% YoY, underscoring operational ramp-up.

Breaking down revenue by technology, advanced nodes dominated, with 3nm processes contributing 37%, 5nm at 23%, and 7nm at 14%. Together, 7nm and below accounted for a significant portion, highlighting TSMC's leadership in cutting-edge semiconductors. Legacy nodes like 28nm (8%) and 16/20nm (7%) provided stability, while older technologies made up the remainder.

By platform, HPC led with 57% of revenue, fueled by AI accelerators and data centers, posting +19% QoQ growth. Smartphones held 30% but remained flat QoQ at -0%, amid seasonal softness. IoT and Automotive segments each at 5% saw strong gains of +20% and +18% QoQ, respectively, driven by edge AI and electric vehicles. Digital Consumer Electronics (DCE) at 1% dipped -8%, and Others at 2% fell -20%.

TSMC's balance sheet remains solid, with total assets at NT$7,354.11 billion, up from Q2. Cash and marketable securities rose to NT$2,751.06 billion (37.4% of assets), while net PP&E stood at NT$3,499.34 billion. Current ratio improved to 2.7x, and asset productivity hit 1.2x. Cash flows were healthy, with operating cash at NT$426.83 billion and free cash flow at NT$139.38 billion, despite NT$287.45 billion in capex for fab expansions.

Looking ahead, CFO Wendell Huang provided Q4 guidance, though details were not specified in the presentation. Chairman & CEO C.C. Wei emphasized TSMC's role in unleashing innovation amid global tech demands. The board approved a NT$5.00 cash dividend for Q2 2025, payable January 8, 2026. With AI momentum persisting, TSMC is poised for continued growth, though it cautioned on forward-looking risks in its Safe Harbor notice.
 

Attachments

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AI Transcript:

Jeff Su, Director of Investor Relations
, TSMC: Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to TSMC’s Third Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. This is Jeff Su, TSMC’s Director of Investor Relations and your host for today. TSMC is hosting our earnings conference call via live audio webcast through the company’s website at www.tsmc.com, where you can also download the earnings release materials. If you are joining us through the conference call, your dial in lines are in listen only mode. The format for today’s event will be as follows.

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First, TSMC’s Senior Vice President and CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in the third quarter twenty twenty five, followed by our guidance for the fourth quarter twenty twenty five. Afterwards, Mr. Huang and TSMC’s Chairman and CEO, Doctor. C.

C. Wei, will jointly provide the company’s key messages. Then we will open the line for Q and A. As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today’s discussions may contain forward looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward looking statements. Please refer to the Safe Harbor notice that appears in our press release.

And now I would like to turn the call over to TSMC’s CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, for the summary of operations and the current quarter guidance. Thank you, Jeff. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today.

My presentation will start with financial highlights for the third quarter twenty twenty five. After that, I will provide the guidance for the fourth quarter twenty twenty five. Third quarter revenue increased 6% sequentially in NT as our business was supported by strong demand for our leading edge process technologies. In U. S.

Dollar terms, revenue increased 10.1 sequentially to $33,100,000,000 slightly ahead of our third quarter guidance. Gross margin increased 0.9 percentage points sequentially to 59.5%, primarily due to cost improvement efforts and a higher capacity utilization rate, partially offset by an unfavorable foreign exchange rate and dilution from our overseas fabs. Accordingly, operating margin increased one point zero percentage points sequentially to 50.6%. Overall, our third quarter EPS was dollars up 39% year over year and ROE was 37.8%. Now let’s move on to revenue by technology.

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Three nanometer process technology contributed 23% of wafer revenue in the third quarter, while five nanometer and seven nanometer accounted for 3714% respectively. Advanced technologies defined as seven nanometer and below accounted for 74% of wafer revenue. Moving on to revenue contribution by platform. HPC remained flat quarter over quarter to account for 57% of our third quarter revenue. Smartphone increased 19% to account for 30%.

IoT increased 20% to account for 5%. Automotive increased 18% to account for 5%. And TCE decreased 20% to account for 1%. Moving on to the balance sheet. We ended the third quarter with cash and marketable securities of NT2.8 trillion dollars or US90 billion dollars On the liability side, current liability decreased by NT101 billion dollars quarter over quarter, mainly due to the decrease of billion dollars in accrued liabilities and others as we paid out 2025 provisional tax of billion dollars In terms of financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days increased two days to twenty five days.

Days of inventory decreased two days to seventy four days due to strong shipment in N3 and N5. Regarding cash flow and CapEx, during the third quarter, we generated about NT427 billion in cash from operations, spent NT287 billion dollars in CapEx and distributed NT117 billion dollars for fourth quarter ’twenty four cash dividend. Overall, our cash balance increased billion dollars to NT2.5 trillion dollars at the end of the quarter. In U. S.

Dollar terms, our third quarter capital expenditures totaled NT9.7 billion I have finished my financial summary. Now let’s turn to our current quarter guidance. Based on the current business outlook, we expect our fourth quarter revenue to be between $32,200,000,000 and $33,400,000,000 which represents a 1% sequential decrease or a 22% year over year increase at the midpoint. Based on the exchange rate assumption of US1 dollars to dollars margin is expected to be between 5961%, operating margin between 4951%. This concludes my financial presentation.

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Now let me turn to our key messages. I will start by talking about our third quarter ’twenty five and fourth quarter ’twenty five profitability. Compared to second quarter, our third quarter gross margin increased by 90 basis points sequentially to 59.5%, primarily due to cost improvement efforts and a higher overall capacity utilization rate, partially offset by margin dilution from our overseas fabs and an unfavorable foreign exchange rate. Compared to our third quarter guidance, our actual gross margin exceeded the high end of the range provided three months ago by 200 basis points, mainly as the actual third quarter exchange rate was compared to our guidance of $1 to NT29. In addition, we also delivered better than expected cost improvement efforts.

We have just guided our fourth quarter gross margin to increase by 50 basis points to 60% at the midpoint, primarily driven by a more favorable foreign exchange rate, partially offset by continued dilution from our overseas fabs. While the cost of overseas fabs remain higher, thanks to the company’s overall larger scale, we now expect the gross margin dilution from the ramp up of our overseas fabs to be closer to 2% in the 2025. For the full year 2025, we now expect it to be between one percent to 2% as compared to 2% to 3% previously. Looking ahead, we continue to forecast the gross margin dilution from the ramp up of our overseas fabs in the next several years to be 2% to 3% in the early stages and widen to 3% to 4% in the latter stages. We will leverage our increasing size in Arizona and work on our operations to improve the cost structure.

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We will also continue to work closely with our customers and suppliers to manage the impact. Overall, with our fundamental competitive advantages of manufacturing technology leadership and large scale production base, we expect TSMC to be the most efficient and cost effective manufacturer in every region that we operate. Now let me make some comments on our 2025 CapEx. As the structured AI related demand continues to be very strong, we continue to invest to support our customers’ growth. We are narrowing the range of our twenty twenty five CapEx to be between US40 billion and US42 billion dollars as compared to US38 billion to US42 billion dollars previously.

About 70% of the capital budget will be allocated for advanced process technologies, about 10% to 20% will be spent for specialty technologies and about 10% to 20% will be spent for advanced packaging, testing, mask making and others. At TSMC, a higher level of capital expenditures is always correlated with higher growth opportunities in the following years. Even as we invest for the future growth with this higher level of CapEx spending in 2025, we remain committed to delivering profitable growth to our shareholders. We also remain committed to a sustainable and steadily increasing cash dividend per share on both an annual and quarterly basis. Now let me turn the microphone over to C.C.

C.C. Wei, Chairman and CEO, TSMC:
Thank you, Wendell. Good afternoon, everyone. First, let me start with our near term demand outlook. We concluded our third quarter with revenue of 33,100,000,000.0 slightly above our guidance in U. S.

Dollar terms, mainly due to the strong demand for our leading edge process technologies. Moving into fourth quarter twenty twenty five, we expect our business to be supported by continued strong demand for our leading edge process technologies. We continue to observe robust AI related demands throughout 2025, while non AI end market segment have bottomed out and are seeing a mild recovery. Supported by our strong technology differentiation and broad customer base, we now expect our full year 2025 revenue to increase by close to mid-30s percent year over year in U. S.

Dollar term. While we have not observed any change in our customers’ behavior so far, we understand there are uncertainties and risk from the potential impact of tariff policies, especially in consumer related and price sensitive end market segment. As such, we will remain mindful of the potential impact and be prudent in our business planning going into 2026 while continuing to invest for the future megatrend. Amidst the uncertainty, we will also continue to focus on the fundamentals of our business, that is technology leadership, manufacturing excellence and customer trust to further strengthen our competitive position. Next, let me talk about the AI demand outlook and TSMC’s capacity planning process disciplines.

Recent developments in AI market continue to be very positive. The explosive growth in token volume demonstrated increasing consumer AI model adoption, which means more and more computation is needed leading to more leading edge silicon demand. Companies such as TSMC, we are leveraging AI internally to drive greater productivity and efficiency to create more value. As such, enterprise AI is another source of demand. In addition, we continue to observe the rising emergence of sovereign AI.

We are also happy to see continued strong outlook from our customers. In addition, we directly receive very strong signals from our customers’ customers requesting the capacity to support their business. Thus, our conviction in the AI megatrend is strengthening, and we believe the demand for semiconductor will continue to be very fundamental. As a key enabler of AI applications, TSMC’s biggest responsibility is to prepare the most advanced technologies and necessary capacity to support our customers’ growth to address the structural increase in the long term market demand profile, TSMC employs a disciplined and robust capacity planning system. Externally, we work closely with our customer and our customers’ customer to plan our capacity.

We have more than 500 different customers across all the end market segments. In addition, as process technology complexity increases, the engagement lead time with customer is now at least two to three years in new turbines. Therefore, we probably get the deepest in why these look possible in the industry. Internally, our planning system involve multiple teams across several functions to assess and evaluate the market demand from both top down and bottom up approach to determine the appropriate CapEx to build. This is especially important when we have such high forecasted demand from AI related business.

As a world’s most reliable and effective capacity provider, we are continuing to work closely with our customer to invest in leading edge specialty and advanced packaging technologies to support their growth. We will also remain disciplined and derived in our capacity planning approach to ensure we deliver profitable growth for our shareholder. Now let me talk about TSMC’s global manufacturing footprint update. All our overseas decisions are based on our customers’ need as they value some geographic flexibility and necessary level of government support. This is also to maximize the value for our shareholders.

With a strong collaboration and support from our leading U. S. Customers and The U. S. Federal, state and city governments, we continue to speed up our capacity expansion in Arizona.

We are making tangible progress and executing well to our plan. In addition, we are preparing to upgrade our technologies faster to N2 and more advanced process technologies in Arizona, given the strong AI related demand from our customers. Furthermore, we are close to securing a second large piece of land nearby to support our current expansion plans and provide more flexibility in response to the very strong multiyear AI related demand. Our plan will enable TSMC to scale up to an independent gigabyte cluster in Arizona to support the needs of our leading edge customers in smartphone, AI and HPC applications. Next, in Japan, thanks to the strong support from the Japan Central, Prefectural and Local Government, our first specialty fab in Kuma model has already started volume production in late twenty twenty four with very good yield.

The construction of our second fab has begun and the ramp schedule will be based on our customers’ need and market conditions. In Europe, we have received strong commitment from European Commission and the German federal, state and city governments. Construction of our specialty fab in Dresden, Germany has also started and we are progressing smoothly with our plans. The ramp schedule will be based on our customers’ need and market conditions. In Taiwan, with support from the Taiwan government, we are preparing for multiple phases of N2 fabs in both Xinzhou and Kaohsiung Science Park.

We will continue to invest in leading edge and advanced packaging facilities in Taiwan over the next several years. By expanding our global footprint, we are continuing to invest in Taiwan. TSMC can continue to be the trusted technology and capacity provider of the global larger IC industry for years to come. Finally, let me talk about our N2 and S16 status. Our two nanometer and S16 technologies lead the industry in addressing a sizable demand for energy efficient computing and almost all innovators are working with TSMC.

N2 is well on track for volume production later this quarter. With good year, we expect a faster ramp in 2026 fueled by both smartphone and HPC AI applications. With our strategy of continuous enhancement, we also introduced N2P as an extension of our N2 family. N2P feature further performance and power benefits on top of N2 and volume production scheduled for second half twenty twenty six. We also introduced A16 featuring our best in class Superpower rail or SPR.

A16 is best suited for specific HPC product with complex signal routes and dense power delivery networks. Volume production is on track for second half ’twenty six. We believe N2 and its derivatives will prepare our N2 family to be another large and long lasting node for TSMC. This concludes our key message, and thank you for your attention.

Jeff Su, Director of Investor Relations, TSMC: Thank you, C. This concludes our prepared statements. Before we begin the Q and A session, I would like to remind everybody to please limit your questions to two at a time to allow all the participants an opportunity to ask their questions. Should you wish to raise your question in Chinese, I will translate it to English before our management answers your question. For those of you on the call, if you would like to ask a question, please press star then one on the telephone keypad now.
 
Now let’s begin the Q and A session. Operator, can we please proceed with the first caller on the line? Thank you.

Wendell Huang, Senior Vice President and CFO, TSMC: Yes. First one, Goku Hariharan, JPMorgan. Go ahead, please. Yes. Thanks.

Gokul Hariharan, Analyst, JPMorgan: C, Will and Jeff. Great results again. So on the AI front, C. C, I think you have met with pretty much everybody who is driving the Gen AI revolution over the last couple of months. And as you said, everybody seems to be a lot more positive.

I think we gave a guidance of mid-40s data center AI growth CAGR earlier this year until 2029. Anything that you see which should kind of change that number definitely feels like the growth today seems to be much stronger. And related to that, you did talk about the very detailed capacity expansion planning that TSMC does. In past technology cycles, TSMC CapEx has gone up significantly to prepare for the next upgrade or next leading node. But in this cycle, TSMC revenues have grown 50% from the previous peak in ’twenty two.

CapEx has only grown about 10%. So how should we think about the CapEx over the next couple of years? I know that you’re not giving numerical guidance yet, but just wanted to understand, like, are we looking at much higher CapEx in the next couple of years given all these conversations you’ve had? And Alex will follow-up on that. Okay.

Jeff Su, Director of Investor Relations, TSMC: first question sorry, Gokul, let me summarize for everyone’s benefit. So again, he wants to know firstly related to the AI related demand, if not everyone who is doing AI and many of the customers seem to be even more positive today. So I guess you would like to ask C. C. Sort of what are we seeing or hearing from our customers?

And then we had previously said that the next five years from 2024 to ’twenty nine, we expect AI Accelerator to grow at a mid-40s CAGR. Is there any update to this? I think this is the first part, then I’ll get to the second part on CapEx.

C.C. Wei, Chairman and CEO, TSMC: Wow. That’s a long question easily. Goku, the AI demand actually continue to be very strong, is more stronger than we saw three months ago, okay? So in today’s situation, we have talked to customer and then we talk to customers and customer. So the CAGR we previously we announced is about mid-40s.

But it’s still it’s a little bit better than that. We will update you probably in beginning of next year. So we have more clear picture. Today, the number are in Xian.

Jeff Su, Director of Investor Relations, TSMC: And then the second part of Gokul’s question related to CapEx. He notes that in the past when TSMC sees opportunities for higher growth, past cycles or past instances, we would step up the CapEx significantly to prepare to drive the future growth. But he knows this cycle actually, though while CapEx is increasing, the revenue is increasing even faster. So his question really, I think, how do we see this playing out over the next few years, both in terms of the CapEx spend and the growth relative to the revenue Wei:] growth? Okay.

Goku, every year we spend the CapEx based on the business opportunity in the following few years. As long as we believe there are business opportunities, we will not hesitate to invest. And if we do our job right, the growth of our business, of our revenue should outpace the growth of the CapEx. And that’s what we have been delivering in the past few years. Now going forward, assuming we’re doing a very good job, then we will continue to see that happening again.

So a company of our size, the CapEx number, it’s unlikely to suddenly drop significantly in any given year. When we continue to invest and our growth is outpacing our CapEx growth, then you will see the growth like what we have done in the past few years.

Gokul Hariharan, Analyst, JPMorgan: Understood. I know that it is unlikely to drop, but it is also likely to grow quite a bit given what Siti mentioned in terms of every customer asking you and every customer requesting you for capacity addition, right?

Jeff Su, Director of Investor Relations, TSMC: Yes. As I said, a higher level of CapEx is always going to be correlated with a higher growth opportunity. So as C. C. Said, next year looks to be a healthy year and we are confident on the megatrend that we’ll continue to invest.

Okay. Go ahead. Yes.

Gokul Hariharan, Analyst, JPMorgan: Maybe one more follow-up question from me. Sisi, I think last year also you gave us indication of how much co op capacity you would be building. I think you talked about 2x of doubling the co op capacity. It clearly feels like even that is not enough. Could you give us some idea about how much capacity would you be building next year just to get some idea about what you are seeing in terms of AI demand?

And also just to get some understanding of TSMC’s data center AI exposure up, I think last year, we talked about mid teens revenues.

Jeff Su, Director of Investor Relations, TSMC: Where do we end up this year? Do we end up close to like 30% of revenues coming from AI? So Okay. So Gokul, your second question, really, he wants to understand, can we provide any detail or colors on the CoWoS capacity plan for 2026 in terms of year on year increase? And also in terms of our definition of AI accelerator revenue, the narrow definition, how much will it contribute for 2025 revenue?

Is it 30%?

C.C. Wei, Chairman and CEO, TSMC: Welcome, this is C. C. Wei again. Talking about the cohorts capacity, all I can say is continue the three months ago, we are working very hard to narrow the gap between the demand and supply. We are still working to increase the capacity in 2026.

The real number, we probably update you next year. Today, all I want to say about AI everything related like front end and back end capacity is very tight. We are working very hard to make sure that the gap will be narrowed, but all I can say is we are working very hard.

Jeff Su, Director of Investor Relations, TSMC: Okay. Thank you, Gokul. I think we need to move on in the interest of time. So operator, can

Charlie Chan, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: we move to the next participant, please? Yes. Next one, Charlie Chan, Morgan Stanley. Go ahead, please.

Wendell Huang, Senior Vice President and CFO, TSMC: Thanks for taking my question. And again, congratulations for a very strong results, C. C. Wendell and Jeff. So my first question is really about your D niche demand.

As Siri just mentioned, your front end demand is also very strong into next year. But one of your major customers said that more so is that. I think his point is that by doing maybe system label innovation in the thermal, etcetera, can boost up more kind of performers. So just a kind of dumb question, how do you reconcile your very, very strong leading edge demand and the customer continue to migrate to your most advanced nodes and also you continue to recycle value, whereas the customer continue to think that more so is that can we get some clarification from TSMC? C.

Jeff Su, Director of Investor Relations, TSMC: All right. So Charlie’s question is very specific, although he wants us to comment on a customer saying Moore’s Law is dead, but how do we reconcile this with a very strong leading edge demand into 2026 and also with system level innovations?

C.C. Wei, Chairman and CEO, TSMC: Okay. Charlie, this is Xisi Wei. Yes, one of my customer, very important customer say, most of all is that, but what it means is it’s not only rely on the chip technology anymore. Now we have to focus on the whole systems of performance. So he wanted to he want to emphasize the whole systems of performance rather than just talking about the Moore’s Law, which is not enough to meet his requirement.

So again, we work very closely with his people and to design our technology both in front end and back end and also in all the packages to meet his requirement. That’s all I can say.

Jeff Su, Director of Investor Relations, TSMC: Thank you, C. C. H. Charlie. C.

Do you have a second question, Charlie?

Wendell Huang, Senior Vice President and CFO, TSMC: Yes, I do. It’s answering, Jeff. Yes. So anyway, I would interpret it as so called it more so two point zero that your co COO, Mr. Cliff Ho also comes here during the Semicon in Taiwan.

But anyway, thanks, C.C. For your commentary. And my second question is actually a follow-up from last quarter’s same question. Back then, I consulted you about the China AI GPU demand, right, whether you can seize the market opportunity because China sales video is extending their AI infrastructure very rapidly. But given the recent kind of back and forth between U.S. And China, whether China can really impose NVIDIA GPU, would that kind of discount your potential long term growth of the AI CAGR? Is that something that TSMC would worry about?

Jeff Su, Director of Investor Relations, TSMC: Okay. So Charlie’s second question is related around AI demand and specific to China with the sort of the export control and restriction. His question is, does that impact our ability to address the market Wei:] opportunity? And will this impact our AI CAGR growth if we are not allowed to

Wendell Huang, Senior Vice President and CFO, TSMC: fully Well,

Jeff Su, Director of Investor Relations, TSMC: serve China?

Wendell Huang, Senior Vice President and CFO, TSMC: Yes, I think it will be both sides, meaning restriction from The U. S. But also China government’s kind of discouragement to procure U. S. Chip.

Sorry for interruption.

C.C. Wei, Chairman and CEO, TSMC: Well, Charlie, those bigger tools, I have a confidence on my customers, both in graphic or in ASIC. They all performed very well. And so if the China market is not available, but I still think the AIs growth will be very dramatically. And as I said, very positive. And I have confidence that our customers’ performance and they will continue to grow and we will support them.

Wendell Huang, Senior Vice President and CFO, TSMC: So even with limited opportunity from China for the time being, you are still confident that a 40% CAGR or even higher can be achieved in coming years? You are right.

Jeff Su, Director of Investor Relations, TSMC: Great. Thank you. Thanks, gentlemen. Yes. Thank you, Charlie.

Operator, can we move on to the next participant, please?

Wendell Huang, Senior Vice President and CFO, TSMC: Yes. Next one, Sunny Lin, UBS. Go ahead, please.

Sunny Lin, Analyst, UBS: Congrats on the very strong gross margin. So my first question is how should we think about 2026? I understand we should get better color maybe into January, But just want to get some directional major puts and takes for gross margin trending going to 2026. Especially, how should we think about the gross margin impact from two nanometer ramp for 2026?

Jeff Su, Director of Investor Relations, TSMC: Okay. So Sunny’s first question is regarding gross margin. She would like to know directionally how do we see the gross margin for next year 2026 in terms of certain puts and takes and also if Wendell is able to comment specifically. Sunny,

Jeff Su, Director of Investor Relations, TSMC: I heard you right on the N2 dilution impact, correct? Yes, that’s right. Thank you. Okay. That’s her first question.

Okay. Sunny, yes, it’s too early to talk about 2026. But you already mentioned about the N2 dilution. And as all the new node when they just come out, the N2 will have dilution in our gross margin in 2026. But at the same time, the N3 dilution is gradually coming down and we expect the N3 to catch up to the corporate average sometimes in 2026.

The other factors includes like overseas fabs dilution, which will continue and which we said that it will be about 2% to 3% dilution in the early stage of the next several years. That will also be there. And also, we all saw the dramatic foreign exchange rate movement in the earlier part of this year. There’s no control. We don’t know where that will be.

But every percentage move of dollar against NT will affect our gross margin by 40 basis points. So that just give you some rough idea.

Sunny Lin, Analyst, UBS: You. Sorry, if I may. Yes, a very quick follow-up. And so on two nanometer, on the typical 2% to 6% dilution by new node for the first seven to eight quarters of mass production being a good reference for two nanometer as well for 2026?

Jeff Su, Director of Investor Relations, TSMC: Okay. So Sunny, a quick follow-up. She wants to know for the two nanometer dilution, if we’re able to provide any detail. And should can she still think about it in terms of seven to eight quarters or six to eight quarters dilution to reach the time, sorry, to reach the corporate average. Yes.

Sunny, let me share with you. N2 structure profitability is better than N3, okay? Now secondly, it’s less meaningful nowadays to talk about how long it will take for a new node to reach the corporate average in terms of profitability. And that’s because the corporate profitability, the corporate gross margin moves And generally, it has been moving upwards. So less meaningful to talk about that.

Okay?

Sunny Lin, Analyst, UBS: Got it. No problem. That’s very helpful. My second question, thank you for C. C.

A lot for sharing with us the details on how you think about the capacity expansions and planning. And so my question is now, call.ai is ramping a lot faster than the prior opportunities like smartphones and PCs. Yes, I think the demand for call.ai is also maybe harder to forecast. So just want to maybe get some more color from you that now versus the prior rounds of capacity expansions, what is TSMC doing differently versus before? And how do you ensure that while you are ramping up the capacities more quickly, while still having a good risk control?

Jeff Su, Director of Investor Relations, TSMC: Okay. Thank you, Sunny. So Sunny’s second question is regarding capacity planning and expansion in a capital intensive business. She knows this is very important. But in the past, smartphone and PC megatrends.

Today, it’s AI and cloud AI. She’s wondering, does that make this planning process more difficult to forecast? And what are we doing differently? Or how do we forecast this to make sure that we are investing appropriately? Sandeep, indeed,

C.C. Wei, Chairman and CEO, TSMC: right now because of I believe we are just in the early stage of the AI application. So very hard to make the right forecast at this moment. What do we do differently? We there’s a big difference because right now we pay a lot of attention to our customers as a customer. We talk to and then discuss with them and look at their applications, be it in the search engine or in social media’s application.

We talk with them and see how they view the AI application to those functions. And then we make a judgment about what the AI going to grow. And so this is quite different as compared with before we already talked to our customers and have an internal study. This is different. Did I answer your question?

Sunny Lin, Analyst, UBS: Got it. Thank you very much, D. C. Yes, yes, yes. And looking forward to the CapEx guide in January.

C.C. Wei, Chairman and CEO, TSMC: You’re welcome. All

Jeff Su, Director of Investor Relations, TSMC: right. Thank you, Sunny. Operator, can we move on to the next participant, please? Next one, Bruce Lu, Goldman Sachs. Go ahead, please.

Thank you for taking my question. I think Jensen talked about like $3,000,000,000,000 to $4,000,000,000,000 AI infrastructure opportunity by 02/1930, right? This compared to like $600,000,000,000 CapEx reason for this year implies for about 40% CAGR. This is similar to TSMC’s guidance for the AI growth, right? But for me, first of all, what I want to know is what’s the TSMC’s view for the AI infrastructure growth for the next five years?

And what’s TSMC’s forecast for the token growth rate in the next few years? TSMC used to provide like same industry growth, foundry growth and how much TSMC can outperform the industry, right? Given the context, can we assume like TSMC AI related revenue can track will track with the CapEx growth of AI or the major cloud service provider? Or should we expect even higher growth rate for TSMC considering you’re potentially getting Wei:] more value out of it? Okay.

Let me try to summarize your question, Bruce. He notes that one of our customers has highlighted a 3,000,000,000,000 to 4,000,000,000,000 infrastructure opportunity over the next few years compared to 600,000,000,000 yen current CapEx, implying a 40 something percent CAGR growth rate, which is similar to ours. Bruce’s question is he wants to know what is TSMC’s forecast or view for AI infrastructure growth. He would also like to know what is TSMC’s forecast or view for the token growth? And then what is TSMC’s AI related revenue growth?

Can it track that of the cloud service providers? And his question is, should it be even higher? Shouldn’t it be even higher given the value that we capture?

C.C. Wei, Chairman and CEO, TSMC: That’s actually several questions, but is that correct, Bruce? That’s right. Thank you. Well, Bruce, essentially just want to know that how accurate that we can predict that AI is a demand. We give you a number roughly in the mid-40s is a CAGR, not including all the infrastructures of Europe and also aligned with our major customers forecast or their view.

But more than that, I think if we are talking about the tokens, the number of tokens increase is exponential. And I believe that almost every three months will be exponentially increased. And that’s why we are still very comfortable that the demand on leading edge semiconductor is real. And as I continue to say that we look at all the demand and look at our capacity expansion, we need TSMC need to work very hard to narrow the gap. That’s what we are doing right now.

Existing number that we probably will share with you in next year, so that when we have a very better clear picture.

Jeff Su, Director of Investor Relations, TSMC: I think the no, I just have a quick follow-up. I’ll use that as my second question anyway. I think the question is that the token growth seems to be substantially higher than the AI related revenue guidance on TSMC, right? So the gap is actually enlarging if you compound in the outer years, right? That’s why that’s the differences between the what we see for the current TSMC outlook and the potential token consumptions, right?

So the gap is continuing to see an enlarging. How do we solve this? And do we really see that as a major issue as well? Okay. So Bruce’s second question, which is a follow on for Numis first, is that the token growth is growing at a much higher rate or exponentially than TSMC’s AI revenue growth, And this gap will only enlarge and widen in the next few years.

So he wants to know sorry, Bruce, basically what’s the implication Wei:] to TSMC or how do we see this? Is that correct?

C.C. Wei, Chairman and CEO, TSMC: Okay. Bruce, You are right. You are right. The tokens and the number of tokens increased exponentially is much, much higher than TSMC’s CAGR as we forecasted. But let me tell you that first, our technology continue to improve.

And so our customer moving from one node to the next node so that they can handle much more tokens number in their basic fundamental calculation. So that’s one thing. We progress very well from one node to the other node. And our customer working with TSMC to continuously to improve their performance. And that’s why when we say that we have about forty, forty five CAGR, but then the total number are exponentially increased because of our customer and TSMC’s technology combined that can handle much more or much efficient than before.

Did I answer your question?

Jeff Su, Director of Investor Relations, TSMC: I see. So you believe your no migration Wei:] plus your customer design change can fulfill or can meet the explain your growth for the token consumption? Exactly. Is that the conclusion? Yes.

Understand. Okay. Sorry, Bruce, that was your second question. Operator, Yes. We need to move on.

Thank you,

Wendell Huang, Senior Vice President and CFO, TSMC: Next one, Laura Chen, Citi. Go ahead, please.

Bruce Lu, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Yes. Thank you very much for taking my questions. I appreciate Citi sharing your view on TSMC’s strategy on the AI capacity planning. I think along with very strong advanced node demand, I believe that advanced packaging like the Kokoa is also one of the focus for your AI clients they are now looking for. I recall that TSMC previously also planned to expand advanced packaging in Arizona.

So can you give us updates here? And also, I mean, for the time being, there’s very stretched demand at the moment. So with TSMC, we’ll work more closely with your own sales partner to fulfill the strong demand at the same time. That’s my first question. Thank you.

Jeff Su, Director of Investor Relations, TSMC: Okay. Thank you, Laura. So her first question is on capacity planning. We have talked earlier on the call about the planning for leading nodes. She wants to understand also on the co op capacity and specifically, I guess, packaging in Arizona and how do we work with our OSAT partners?

C.C. Wei, Chairman and CEO, TSMC: Okay. We have announced our plan to build two advanced packaging fab in Arizona and to support our customers. But at the same time, actually, right now we are working with the one OSAT, a big company and our good partner and they are going to build their fab in Arizona and we are working with them because they already breaking ground and the schedule is earlier than TSMC’s two advanced packaging fab and we are working with them. And our main purpose is to support our customer and so we can marry in The U. S.

Jeff Su, Director of Investor Relations, TSMC: Do you have a second question?

Bruce Lu, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Yes. Certainly. Mean, obviously, we see that the advanced now advanced packaging is quite strong. And also, at the same time, we are also seeing that the migration is also happening for N2 and N3. So just wondering that from the revenue growth perspective, I know it’s still early to predict next year based on your guidance.

But I’m just wondering will it be more driven by the ASP increase because of the technology migration? TSMC will be able to sell your value or more that will be driven by the capacity or volume growth on both end to ramp up? And also, C. D, you mentioned some of the mild cyclical recovery. So that may also drive some of the volume growth into next year.

So just wondering like if you look at the growth outlook, that would be more driven by the technology upgrade ASP increase or also more like a volume? That’s my second question. Okay.

Jeff Su, Director of Investor Relations, TSMC: So Laura, again, second question is looking at 2026. She would like to understand what will be the key drivers of the growth. Is it more from the technology mix migration, things like N2? Is it more from ASP upgrade? Or is it more from just pure wafer volume growth?

Wendell Huang, Senior Vice President and CFO, TSMC: All right. Okay. Okay. You knew it, right?

Bruce Lu, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: It’s good. May I also follow-up that because we see that actually N3 is very tight. And at the same time, we are also kind of expanding on N2. And CT, you previously mentioned that you will migrate some of the even N7 and N6 and also N5 to N6. But specifically on N3, do we also need to add more capacity into next year on newly added capacity?

Jeff Su, Director of Investor Relations, TSMC: Sorry, Laura is saying that will next year, will we continue sorry, Laura, if I understand correctly, will we need to add new capacity? Will we continue to do conversion? What will we do to support the very strong demand

C.C. Wei, Chairman and CEO, TSMC: we see at leading edge next year? J. Well, let me answer that question. We continue to optimize N5, N3 capacity to support our customer. For the new building for the N3 capacity to expand, we put the new building for the N2 technology. That’s today’s plan. Okay.

Charlie Chan, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Thank

Jeff Su, Director of Investor Relations, TSMC: you, Laura. Operator, in the interest of time, we’ll take the questions from the last two participants, please. Thank you.

Wendell Huang, Senior Vice President and CFO, TSMC: It’s one for Sankar, T. D. Cowen. Go ahead, please. Yes.

Laura Chen, Analyst, Citi: taking my question. My first one is, C. C, about ten years ago, back in the smartphone days, TSMC would talk about the revenue opportunity for TSMC per phone. So was wondering in today’s world, can you talk about how much one gigawatt of AI data center capacity could transfer in terms

Jeff Su, Director of Investor Relations, TSMC: of wafer demand or revenue for TSMC? And then I have a follow-up. Okay. So Krish’s first question, you noted in the past in the smartphone megatrend, we talked about the content per phone opportunity for TSMC. So now with AI, is there a way to frame or quantify We one gigawatt of data center capacity?

Is the revenue opportunity for TSMC?

C.C. Wei, Chairman and CEO, TSMC: Recently, as I said, AI demand continue to increase. And then my customers say that one gigawatt, they need about invest about RMB50 billion. Dollars How much of TSMC’s wafer inside? We are not ready to share with you yet because of a different approach. For two Got it.

No worries. And then a quick follow-up. Yeah. Excuse me. I just want to say that, you know, right now, it’s not only one chip.

Actually, it’s a many chip together to form a system. Right?

Laura Chen, Analyst, Citi: Got it. Got it. Very helpful for that. A little quick follow-up. Obviously, you first forecast long term trends and then build capacity towards that.

I’m kind of curious, when you look at the AI demand over the next several years, from a TSMC angle, does it matter whether it’s that demand is coming through a GPU or an ASIC? Does it have an impact on your revenue or gross margin mix?

Jeff Su, Director of Investor Relations, TSMC: Okay. Thank you, Krish. So his second question is, again, with our business outlook. Again, we forecast the long term trends. We plan our capacity, as Hishee said, in a thorough and disciplined manner.

His question is, what are the implications, for example, of I believe you said GPU versus ASIC in terms of the AI market? Do we have a preference or what is there a difference for TSMC? Is that correct, Krish?

Laura Chen, Analyst, Citi: C. That’s right. The impact to revenue and gross margin, whether it’s a GPU or ASIC.

C.C. Wei, Chairman and CEO, TSMC: Right. Okay. So Well, Krish, no matter with GPU or is that ASIC, it’s all using that our leading edge technologies. And from our perspective, we are working with our customer, and we all know that they are going to grow strongly in the next several years. So no differentiation in front of TSMC.

We support all kinds of types. Thank you

Jeff Su, Director of Investor Relations, TSMC: very much. Operator, can we take thank you, Krish. So we’ll take the question from the final participant, please.

Wendell Huang, Senior Vice President and CFO, TSMC: Yes. Last one off the line for Macquarie. Go ahead, please.

Charlie Chan, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Sigee, Wingo and Jeff. Congrats on strong outlook. Asalai from Macquarie. So my question is about competition. So since you define the Foundry two point zero market and I wonder what’s the strategic initiative TSMC undertaking to further strengthening your competitive landscape and also in this broader ecosystem.

So some context, I got a question from a U. S. Investor as your clients have announced they invest in Intel. Okay.

Jeff Su, Director of Investor Relations, TSMC: So Arthur’s question is around competition. In the Foundry two point zero landscape, what strategic initiatives, what things are TSMC focusing on to further strengthen our competitive advantage? I think the last part, Arthur, you’re asking in the environment where one of our competitors in The U. S, how do we focus

C.C. Wei, Chairman and CEO, TSMC: on the competition? Is that correct? Yes. You, Keith. Okay.

Let me answer that one. When we introduce our foundry two point zero, we set the purpose that as I said one of my customers say that system performance is very important in these days, not only a single chip. And also let me share with you that our advanced packaging’s revenue is approaching close to 10% and is significant in our revenue and it’s important for our customer. So that’s why we introduced Foundry two point zero to capitalize this Foundry business. Now as usual, previously, we only look at the front end portion.

Now it’s the whole thing, the front end, the back end and also important for our customer. That’s why we introduced two point zero. Talking about our competition in The U. S, well, that competitor is happened to be our customer, very good customer. So in fact, we are working with them to for their both advanced product. Other than that, I don’t want to make any more comment.

Charlie Chan, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: You, G. Can I ask the one more question? Yes, you have two. So your second question, sure. Yes.

My second question is very quick on the end demand. So recall, since you last time mentioned that we should also monitor and worry about the prelude, especially in the consumer electronics. And then this quarter, our number suggests that there’s a Q o Q 19% growth in the smartphone. So my question is, do you still worry about the pre build? Thank you.

Okay. So Arthur, second question is on smartphone. Do we are we concerned about prebuild or sort

C.C. Wei, Chairman and CEO, TSMC: of I guess pulling prebuild from customers in that regard? No, we don’t worry about the prebuild because of when you have a prebuild, you have inventory. In these days, the inventory already go to that very seasonal level and very healthy. So no preview.

Jeff Su, Director of Investor Relations, TSMC: Thank you very much. Okay. Thank you, C. C. Thank you, Arthur.

Thank you, everyone. So this concludes our Q and A session. Before we conclude today’s conference, please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within thirty minutes from now. The transcript will become available twenty four hours from now and both are going to be available through TSMC’s website at www.tsmc.com. So thank you everyone for joining us today.

We hope you all continue to stay well and we hope you will join us again next quarter in early twenty twenty six. Thank you and have a good day.
 
TSMC's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance Amid AI Boom

On October 16, 2025, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) held its third-quarter earnings conference, showcasing robust financial results driven by surging demand for advanced chips, particularly in AI and high-performance computing (HPC). As the world's leading contract chipmaker, TSMC reported net revenue of US$33.10 billion, exceeding its guidance range of US$31.8-33.0 billion. This marked a 10.1% increase quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) from Q2's US$30.07 billion and a impressive 40.8% year-over-year (YoY) growth from Q3 2024's US$23.50 billion. In New Taiwan Dollars (NT$), revenue reached NT$989.92 billion, up 6.0% QoQ and 30.3% YoY, bolstered by a favorable exchange rate of 29.91 NTD/USD.

Gross margin improved to 59.5%, surpassing the 55.5%-57.5% guidance and rising 0.9 percentage points (ppts) QoQ, thanks to higher capacity utilization and cost efficiencies. Operating margin climbed to 50.6%, up 1.0 ppt QoQ, while net profit attributable to shareholders soared to NT$452.30 billion, a 13.6% QoQ and 39.1% YoY jump. Earnings per share (EPS) hit NT$17.44, reflecting strong profitability. Return on equity (ROE) annualized at 37.8%, up 3.0 ppts QoQ. Wafer shipments grew to 4,085 thousand 12-inch equivalents, up 9.9% QoQ and 22.4% YoY, underscoring operational ramp-up.

Breaking down revenue by technology, advanced nodes dominated, with 3nm processes contributing 37%, 5nm at 23%, and 7nm at 14%. Together, 7nm and below accounted for a significant portion, highlighting TSMC's leadership in cutting-edge semiconductors. Legacy nodes like 28nm (8%) and 16/20nm (7%) provided stability, while older technologies made up the remainder.

By platform, HPC led with 57% of revenue, fueled by AI accelerators and data centers, posting +19% QoQ growth. Smartphones held 30% but remained flat QoQ at -0%, amid seasonal softness. IoT and Automotive segments each at 5% saw strong gains of +20% and +18% QoQ, respectively, driven by edge AI and electric vehicles. Digital Consumer Electronics (DCE) at 1% dipped -8%, and Others at 2% fell -20%.

TSMC's balance sheet remains solid, with total assets at NT$7,354.11 billion, up from Q2. Cash and marketable securities rose to NT$2,751.06 billion (37.4% of assets), while net PP&E stood at NT$3,499.34 billion. Current ratio improved to 2.7x, and asset productivity hit 1.2x. Cash flows were healthy, with operating cash at NT$426.83 billion and free cash flow at NT$139.38 billion, despite NT$287.45 billion in capex for fab expansions.

Looking ahead, CFO Wendell Huang provided Q4 guidance, though details were not specified in the presentation. Chairman & CEO C.C. Wei emphasized TSMC's role in unleashing innovation amid global tech demands. The board approved a NT$5.00 cash dividend for Q2 2025, payable January 8, 2026. With AI momentum persisting, TSMC is poised for continued growth, though it cautioned on forward-looking risks in its Safe Harbor notice.

Here is a short 5:40 video overview of TSMC Q3 2025 earnings generated by Google NotebookLM AI.

Source: https://notebooklm.google.com/noteb...tifactId=837eebec-4316-4c46-ba75-d8628757a260
 
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