TSMC’s CoWoS Capacity Doubles for Two Years, Still Insufficient—Positive Outlook for Suppliers

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At TSMC’s earnings call on the 17th, the company revealed that its CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) capacity will double each year in 2024 and 2025, but demand will continue to outpace supply. According to a report from Money DJ, the CoWoS expansion wave is expected to extend into 2026, promising strong growth for equipment suppliers for at least the next two to three years.

TSMC stated that advanced packaging currently accounts for approximately 7-9% of its revenue, and growth in this segment is expected to outpace the company’s average over the next five years. While the gross margin for advanced packaging is slightly below the company average, it is steadily approaching it. Regarding CoWoS capacity, customer demand significantly exceeds TSMC’s ability to supply, even with production capacity doubling year-on-year in both 2024 and 2025.

According to Money DJ, citing supply chain sources, TSMC has already provided equipment manufacturers with its machine requirements for 2026 and placed orders. Delivery schedules for next year are essentially fully booked, and TSMC is currently working with equipment suppliers to finalize shipment and installation plans for 2026.

The report noted that TSMC’s CoWoS monthly production capacity is expected to reach 35,000 to 40,000 wafers this year, and surge to 80,000 wafers per month next year. Originally, the expansion wave was anticipated to slow somewhat by 2026, with monthly capacity reaching around 100,000 to 120,000 wafers. However, strong and urgent demand from major AI customers continues to drive capacity needs, and with the addition of more equipment, TSMC’s CoWoS capacity could still see significant expansion, potentially reaching 140,000 to 150,000 wafers per month by 2026.

In addition, the report provided an overview of TSMC’s advanced packaging supply chain. Key suppliers for wet process equipment include GPTC and Scientech, which provide automated wet benches and single wafer spin processors. Scientech holds a significant share of CoWoS equipment orders, while GPTC remains a key global supplier for major packaging and testing companies like ASE, Micron, Amkor, and Chinese packaging firms.

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[News] TSMC’s CoWoS Capacity Doubles for Two Years, Still Insufficient—Positive Outlook for Suppliers | TrendForce News

At TSMC’s earnings call on the 17th, the company revealed that its CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) capacity will double each year in 2024 and 2025,...

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[Daniel Nenni]

Why do they measure packaging capacity by wafer? Shouldn't it be per die?

TSMC’s CoWoS monthly production capacity is expected to reach 35,000 to 40,000 wafers this year

 

[DaRAGingLunatic]

Dies change size. Wafers don't. Therefore, wafers will be a consistent measuring tool through time. Just like TSMC wafer capacity for chips. Everything is measured in wafers. Wafers per hour, wafers per minute, wafers per month.

 

[Daniel Nenni]

Dies change size. Wafers don't. Therefore, wafers will be a consistent measuring tool through time. Just like TSMC wafer capacity for chips. Everything is measured in wafers. Wafers per hour, wafers per minute, wafers per month.

I understand that but packaging is a per die technology and should be counted as such. This seems a bit coarse grained to me. Does TSMC also use wafer count to measure CoWas capacity?

From what I was told at the last TSMC symposium CoWas capacity more than doubled this year. The plan was to double but that was exceeded and I expect the same for 2025 and 2026 given TSMC's dominance at N3 and N2.

 

[nyl]

Why do they measure packaging capacity by wafer? Shouldn't it be per die?

TSMC’s CoWoS monthly production capacity is expected to reach 35,000 to 40,000 wafers this year

Same question here: Does this mean that the CoWoS capacity is sufficient to support the production of black well (for example) in quantities of 35K to 40K 12in wfs per month, which would roughly equate to 700K-800K B100 units (if assume 20pcs per wafer)?

 

[chipletguru]

I have had this question for a while. How can you measure die attach steps in wafers? Maybe packaging should be measured in packages/month?