you need to treat Musk's words like you would to China's CCP. you need to see TeraFab in operation and produce real chip before you believe it.
Terafab 21 March 2026
- Thread starter user nl
- Start date
Xebec
Well-known member
Of course - I'm not posting this because I "believe it", but just pointing out - they're building the hype for it.
That said, I trust China's CCP when they talk about introducing new social control measures.
user nl
Well-known member
https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20260330PD217/elon-musk-wafer-fab-ic-manufacturing.html?chid=12
Elon Musk recently announced the launch of the "Terafab" project, aiming to expand compute production capacity to 1 TW per year, which is about 50 times the current global compute supply of around 20 GW. He plans to build advanced wafer fabs first in Austin, Texas. However, with the 1 TW scale revealed, market reactions have been relatively cautious.
With a typical fab producing 50,000 wafers per month, this would require 140-360 new fabs, and at US$35 billion per fab, total investment could reach US$5-13 trillion. This is arguably more difficult than landing on Mars. As a result, Terafab is viewed by some as largely conceptual or speculative at present.
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Elon Musk recently announced the launch of the "Terafab" project, aiming to expand compute production capacity to 1 TW per year, which is about 50 times the current global compute supply of around 20 GW. He plans to build advanced wafer fabs first in Austin, Texas. However, with the 1 TW scale revealed, market reactions have been relatively cautious.
Skepticism over unrealistic scale
Such a capacity would recreate the global semiconductor industry, and its immediate impact on the foundry market is likely limited. Bernstein analysts point out that, based on current compute architectures like Nvidia racks, the wafer demand for 1 TW of compute equals nearly the entire existing global semiconductor production, which is around 16 million 12-inch wafers per month.With a typical fab producing 50,000 wafers per month, this would require 140-360 new fabs, and at US$35 billion per fab, total investment could reach US$5-13 trillion. This is arguably more difficult than landing on Mars. As a result, Terafab is viewed by some as largely conceptual or speculative at present.
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