Taiwan and TSM now safer

[Arthur Hanson]

Business wise and economic wise the current world conflict has dramatically shown what I have been figuring in my investments for years and that is collaboration and cooperation is far more profitable and safer than conflict. I hope this lesson is fully learned by world leaders. These rules were put forward and embraced by the ecosystem that Morris Chang so carefully built. Samsung lost big when they chose to have a conflict with Apple than be a true, trusted partner.
This lesson for the world I have no doubt will be observed in the case of TSM and Taiwan both.

 

[Daniel Nenni]

It is interesting to note that Apple really changed the foundry business. Had Intel partnered with Apple the world would be a different place. Unfortunately, Ottellini, the Intel CEO at the time, did not see Steve Job's iProduct vision. Which surprises me since Ottellini was a sales person at heart. Instead Apple went to Samsung (had the IDM foundry conflict) then went to TSMC. The rest as we say is semiconductor history.

 

[Portland]

I thought Putin was doing Beijing's bidding. Russian would take the natural resources of Ukraine and then China would annex taiwan. The spike missile performed better than expected and the world is still in shock of Russia's losses. This is a disruption for the world.

Taiwan has the same weapons and likely builds licensed copies and more importantly has air cover. Taiwan won't be annexed by China anytime soon.

 

[count]

Yeah, I think China is going to pull back on it's support of Russia, which was an alliance of convenience. China was counting on the west being weakened and divided by a war with Russia. Instead Russia is imploding while the western world is showing strength and unity. China does not want to risk WW3 and they must be also realizing they can't count on Russia to be a reliable partner and so if anything Russia's failure has set back any plans for China to take Taiwan by 5 years.

 

[Portland]

The world abandoned Ukraine and there was only unity after they won.

It's going to be 15 years at best if at all. Russia's best tanks were destroyed by Ukraine's anti-tank weapons and enough of their aircraft were shot down. This will destabilize the country. What happened went against popular opinion.

 

[soAsian]

there's a 111 miles Taiwan Strait. if China going to invade Taiwan, they better do it now 'cause within 5 years Taiwan will have its own submarine build by themselves. several submarines, deep in Taiwan Strait going to be a problem for China.

 

[Daniel Nenni]

If the world supports Ukraine this time around, like it appears (better late than never), I think other countries will think twice about invading. So let's hope for that. This really is a supply chain issue. In war you always cut the supply chain and this is now a worldwide effort. It is much easier to envision now that COVID has ravaged all supply chains, it is forefront in our minds, absolutely.

 

[VCT]

Massive invasion is unlikely and difficult. "Unlike Normandy, the coastal terrain here is a defender’s dream come true. Taiwan has only 14 small invasion beaches, and they are bordered by cliffs and urban jungles."

China will lost lots of people while landing which will be tough pressure from Chinese people.

However, shooting some missile to force Taiwan to surrender is possible. The chance is still small because most Taiwanese won't surrender.

The most possible scenario is battle ships blocking Taiwan to force Taiwan to surrender. But I still don't think most Taiwanese will surrender.

Why a Taiwan Invasion Would Look Nothing Like D-Day

Our natural impulse when thinking about future amphibious operations is to look to the past. Yet the reality is that no good point of comparison for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan exists.

thediplomat.com

Above article are too optimistic in some points. "Over 2 million young Taiwanese men are in the military’s reserve system" Mostly are too soft. We need more advance weapon and practice/ training. It's the right time to reinforce our defense.

 

[Arthur Hanson]

When Switzerland broke its long famous history of neutrality to support Ukraine, it sent a loud and clear message to tyrannical dictators around the world that their power has limits. Xi has to see that invading another country doesn't always go as planned and the cost of taking over Taiwan has gone up dramatically as dictatorial communism as a political and economic model is proving to be a failure compared to a free and open society compromise and collaboration are the rule. Cell phones with their cameras and the internet(Thank You Elon Musk for your support of Ukraine) have clearly shown there are no secrets anymore and the old rules no longer apply thanks to the changes technology has brought.

The latest off CNBC, Russia is not a major Chinese customer as the countries of the west are and this is now a major factor as China looks at Taiwan.

 

[Daniel Nenni]

Massive invasion is unlikely and difficult. "Unlike Normandy, the coastal terrain here is a defender’s dream come true. Taiwan has only 14 small invasion beaches, and they are bordered by cliffs and urban jungles."
China will lost lots of people while landing which will be tough pressure from Chinese people.
However, shooting some missile to force Taiwan to surrender is possible. The chance is still small because most Taiwanese won't surrender.
The most possible scenario is battle ships blocking Taiwan to force Taiwan to surrender. But I still don't think most Taiwanese will surrender.

Why a Taiwan Invasion Would Look Nothing Like D-Day

Our natural impulse when thinking about future amphibious operations is to look to the past. Yet the reality is that no good point of comparison for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan exists.

thediplomat.com

Above article are too optimistic in some points. "Over 2 million young Taiwanese men are in the military’s reserve system" Mostly are too soft. We need more advance weapon and practice/ training. It's the right time to reinforce our defense.

I think the US was in the same position when we called up reserves for Iraq, certainly not hardened soldiers. I think the best strategy is to keep invading forces out of the country so land forces will not be needed. It is strange to read that there is a 40 mile Russian convoy making its way through Ukraine. Seems like an easy target for drones. War seems like a big game of poker. Did everyone think Putin was bluffing? He does not seem like the bluffing type.

 

[Portland]

I think the US was in the same position when we called up reserves for Iraq, certainly not hardened soldiers. I think the best strategy is to keep invading forces out of the country so land forces will not be needed. It is strange to read that there is a 40 mile Russian convoy making its way through Ukraine. Seems like an easy target for drones. War seems like a big game of poker. Did everyone think Putin was bluffing? He does not seem like the bluffing type.

Ukraine's reserves saved their country.

 

[lilo777]

Ukraine's reserves saved their country.

I am not sure this is the case. It looks more like the Russians decided not to attack the cities directly (Kharkov, Kiev) and stopped at the city borders. The cities without much of a defense (like Kherson) were taken though (without fighting). BTW, Russia said they were not using the conscripts in this invasion. They only use professional forces. I am not sure what category the reserves belong to. There are probably reserves that used to be professional militaries and those that were conscripts.

 

[lilo777]

I think the US was in the same position when we called up reserves for Iraq, certainly not hardened soldiers. I think the best strategy is to keep invading forces out of the country so land forces will not be needed. It is strange to read that there is a 40 mile Russian convoy making its way through Ukraine. Seems like an easy target for drones. War seems like a big game of poker. Did everyone think Putin was bluffing? He does not seem like the bluffing type.

That's probably because the Russians established air superiority by the second day of fighting. The Ukrainian new sources did report that their Turkey built drones destroyed some Russian convoys but those were probably small. The report mentioned just one drone and these drones probably can't destroy more than one or two vehicles (they are small). The Russians used missiles to attack the drone base at the Western Ukraine.

 

[count]

BTW, Russia said they were not using the conscripts in this invasion. They only use professional forces. I am not sure what category the reserves belong to. There are probably reserves that used to be professional militaries and those that were conscripts.

There are lots of captured Russian soldiers, intercepted communications, and intelligence from the ground indicating that a significant portion of the Russian invasion force are poorly trained conscripts. If these are Russia's professional forces then the Russian military is truly a joke.

 

[VCT]

That's probably because the Russians established air superiority by the second day of fighting. The Ukrainian new sources did report that their Turkey built drones destroyed some Russian convoys but those were probably small. The report mentioned just one drone and these drones probably can't destroy more than one or two vehicles (they are small). The Russians used missiles to attack the drone base at the Western Ukraine.

Russian can take over those cities. But it's very difficult to maintain it for a long time. Just like USA army in middle east. Enemy attack could be anywhere, anytime.

Unless Russian burn the whole city and kill most of the people which I hope it won't happen.

 

[lilo777]

There are lots of captured Russian soldiers, intercepted communications, and intelligence from the ground indicating that a significant portion of the Russian invasion force are poorly trained conscripts. If these are Russia's professional forces then the Russian military is truly a joke.

There is a lot of noise and propaganda going on on both sides so it's really hard to know what is true and what is not. Just like any other war.

 

[coldsolder215]

No one is safer because of this and I wouldn't equate Ukraine/Russia with China/Taiwan, although I agree this will make China's dream of reunification much trickier.

As far they're concerned, Ukraine was given independence by Lenin because he believed in a people's right to self-determination, while Taiwan is "the Alamo" for the losers of a civil war, ones who would later provide a convenient staging ground for the hot wars against communism in Korea and Vietnam.

Ukraines reserves saved their country.

There are lots of captured Russian soldiers, intercepted communications, and intelligence from the ground indicating that a significant portion of the Russian invasion force are poorly trained conscripts. If these are Russia's professional forces then the Russian military is truly a joke.

There is a lot of noise and propaganda going on on both sides so it's really hard to know what is true and what is not. Just like any other war.

Yeah I wouldn't get worked up by media from either side for another few weeks, too much misinformation and fog of war. If Georgia was any indicator, they sent newbies to absorb the initial resistance and gain experience, while Spetsnaz and the Chechens will follow on to clean up the insurgency.

Troop and materiel numbers suggest that Russia has allocated slightly greater than the 3:1 ratio that is historically recommended for a decisive victory. That they didn't immediately destroy all of Ukraine's air force has raised a lot of eyebrows, perhaps they screwed up but maybe they are holding back. Baghdad, a logistically tougher objective than Kiev, still took three weeks for the US to conquer and at the time people criticized that it was too fast and intense, and we should all know how that panned out.

The only certainty is that the people of Ukraine and Russia, and definitely not America, will suffer for this massive failure of diplomacy. We'll happily flood the country with munitions while continuing to smother Russia economically, leaving them no recourse but to double down. You'd think when it came time to dismantle the USSR we would've applied a learning or two from the Treaty of Versailles, but alas.

 

[hist78]

No one is safer because of this and I wouldn't equate Ukraine/Russia with China/Taiwan, although I agree this will make China's dream of reunification much trickier.

As far they're concerned, Ukraine was given independence by Lenin because he believed in a people's right to self-determination, while Taiwan is "the Alamo" for the losers of a civil war, ones who would later provide a convenient staging ground for the hot wars against communism in Korea and Vietnam.





Yeah I wouldn't get worked up by media from either side for another few weeks, too much misinformation and fog of war. If Georgia was any indicator, they sent newbies to absorb the initial resistance and gain experience, while Spetsnaz and the Chechens will follow on to clean up the insurgency.

Troop and materiel numbers suggest that Russia has allocated slightly greater than the 3:1 ratio that is historically recommended for a decisive victory. That they didn't immediately destroy all of Ukraine's air force has raised a lot of eyebrows, perhaps they screwed up but maybe they are holding back. Baghdad, a logistically tougher objective than Kiev, still took three weeks for the US to conquer and at the time people criticized that it was too fast and intense, and we should all know how that panned out.

The only certainty is that the people of Ukraine and Russia, and definitely not America, will suffer for this massive failure of diplomacy. We'll happily flood the country with munitions while continuing to smother Russia economically, leaving them no recourse but to double down. You'd think when it came time to dismantle the USSR we would've applied a learning or two from the Treaty of Versailles, but alas.

"Troop and materiel numbers suggest that Russia has allocated slightly greater than the 3:1 ratio that is historically recommended for a decisive victory. "

Your estimate about Russian troop strength is at 3 to 1 against Ukraine's. But I believe it is probably off quite a bit.

Ukraine arm force is at about 200,000. Three times of that should be 600,000. But Russian invasion force is estimated only at 190,000 to 200,000 by British and US intelligence agencies. It's way too small than the 3:1 ratio traditionally suggested for an invasion force.

Additionally Ukraine is only second to Russia in terms of land area in Europe and is bigger than Germany and UK combined. Knowing Ukraine's population of 43 million, Putin sent 200,000 soldiers into killing field. It's brutal and it's sad.

 

[hist78]

Russian can take over those cities. But it's very difficult to maintain it for a long time. Just like USA army in middle east. Enemy attack could be anywhere, anytime.

Unless Russian burn the whole city and kill most of the people which I hope it won't happen.

Russia is the largest country in Europe in terms of land area. But Ukraine is large too and is only second to Russia. Actually Ukraine's land area is larger than Germany and UK combine. Ukraine population is 43 million and population density is 75 persons per square km. Russian 200,000 invasion force is < 0.4 person per square km in Ukraine. Considering the fierce resistance from Ukrainian people and the unprecedented support provided by NATO and EU for Ukraine, there isn't too much hope for Putin's victory.

This war is causing and will cause a lot casualties on both sides. And Putin's purpose is to rebuild the glory of Russia Empire?! It's crazy. It's a 21st century human tragedy made by a former KGB officer's fantasy.

 

[coldsolder215]

"Troop and materiel numbers suggest that Russia has allocated slightly greater than the 3:1 ratio that is historically recommended for a decisive victory. "

Your estimate about Russian troop strength is at 3 to 1 against Ukraine's. But I believe it is probably off quite a bit.

Ukraine arm force is at about 200,000. Three times of that should be 600,000. But Russian invasion force is estimated only at 190,000 to 200,000 by British and US intelligence agencies. It's way too small than the 3:1 ratio traditionally suggested for an invasion force.

Additionally Ukraine is only second to Russia in terms of land area in Europe and is bigger than Germany and UK combined. Knowing Ukraine's population of 43 million, Putin sent 200,000 soldiers into killing field. It's brutal and it's sad.

Dangit see I did a misinformation thinking the numbers I saw referred to the invasion force but were probably referring to the whole active military. Then I definitely don't see how Putin "demilitarizes" things without escalation and occupation, and at this point Ukraine probably has a stronger Gladio stay-behind network than the whole of Europe in the 50s.

And Putin's purpose is to rebuild the glory of Russia Empire?! It's crazy. It's a 21st century human tragedy made by a former KGB officer's fantasy.

All of these former KGB oligarchs have to do incredible mental gymnastics to reconcile how taking down the USSR has made Russia incredibly weak on the global stage. Sure they weren't driving Mercs but at least with the Warsaw Pact the west was forced to respect the balance of power. Even the original architects of Cold War containment were incredibly unsettled by the NATO expansions in the 90s, and now we have a wounded nationalist autocrat lashing out to do something about by hearkening to a bygone golden age.. which never really existed for most of the former Tsarist Empire given that it was the prison house of Eurasia.