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There is little doubt China could take over Taiwan, but there is huge doubt as far as the cost. As Russia is finding out with the Ukraine disaster. It would be far better for China to obtain what it wants by peaceful means through negotiation. With Taiwan's advanced technologies combined with partners in the western world, like Russia, China could see the cost of invading Taiwan raised to an intolerable level especially if it progresses to a war against the western world. War is the last refuge of the incompetent and for all concerned I hope China does not make a mistake of staggering proportions. like Winston Churchill said "to jaw-jaw is better than war-war as Germany found out. China could far better spending its resources to advancement and cooperation to the benefit of all than a risky war that could draw in the major western powers. Any thoughts or comments appreciated, I have no doubt they will make it to the Chinese leadership. A mutual peace and cooperation could be far, far more profitable,
I wouldn't assume Taiwan couldn't defend itself. They have a fairly large military for their size, and islands can be notoriously tricky to invade. There are also reports that Chinese radar in Venezeula completely failed to see American planes; some models of which Taiwan uses or would have access to quickly (even if just for supply drops).
That said, I think even Xi Jinping probably realizes the "prestige" gained within his country* of taking Taiwan will cause permanent economic damage to China and the world.
*(clearly infamy with everyone outside, except maybe 1-2 countries)
That said, I think even Xi Jinping probably realizes the "prestige" gained within his country* of taking Taiwan will cause permanent economic damage to China and the world.
Main economic problem of large scale war is that it ruins domestic consumption, which in case of China is already chronically low, so loses from their perspective will not be that big. Economic activity will transform mainly to war effort and exports to finance war effort.
And there is this perception that trade will collapse, which i think is incorrect because we don't see that in case of Russia. There will be "non-aligned" countries (India, Turkey, post-Soviet republics...) which will continue buying from China. Even EU.. Only US was able to cut Russian imports but only thanks to fact that trade between Russia and US pre-war was virtually nonexistent.
Ukraine is like number 1 priority for EU commission and we are still buying stuff from Russia knowing that these money are going directly to finance that war. So I doubt that we will cut rare earth imports from China for island, Brussels does not even recognizes as a country.
According to the October 1971 joint statement: "The Chinese government reiterates that Taiwan is an inalienable part of the territory of the People's Republic of China. The Belgian government takes note of this statement by the Chinese government. The Belgian government recognizes the Government of the People's Republic of China as the sole legal government of China."
So I believe it is more complicated and China would be able to sustain 20-30 years of pressure. Most probably they will not win, but we should not underestimate.
I do not believe it will happen under the current US administration. My guess is that Taiwan and China will work it out politically and be partners. That is my hope anyway. If Taiwan had to decide between being part of China or part of the US what would they choose?
And there is this perception that trade will collapse, which i think is incorrect because we don't see that in case of Russia. There will be "non-aligned" countries (India, Turkey, post-Soviet republics...) which will continue buying from China. Even EU.. Only US was able to cut Russian imports but only thanks to fact that trade between Russia and US pre-war was virtually nonexistent.
Compare to Russia, where it's major partners before 2022 were countries like China, Iran, Turkey, Belarus, and Germany. Only 1 out of those could be counted on to do something (Germany imo made major strategic mistakes to greatly increase it's dependency on Russian oil over the last 10+ years - they really should have known better based on the history of German/central European-Russian relations of the past 300 years).
I think China's economic exposure is MUCH higher than Russia's, though China is a lot more self-sufficient than Russia.
I don't get it if we are so worried about China taking over Taiwan, why don't we sell a few nukes to Taiwan, so Taiwan can bomb Beijing or Shanghai if they got invaded. Everyone in that corner of the world has nukes anyway. China has nukes, N.Korea has nukes, India has nukes, Pakistan has nukes. Why don't our allies also have nukes too?
I don't get it if we are so worried about China taking over Taiwan, why don't we sell a few nukes to Taiwan, so Taiwan can bomb Beijing or Shanghai if they got invaded. Everyone in that corner of the world has nukes anyway. China has nukes, N.Korea has nukes, India has nukes, Pakistan has nukes. Why don't our allies also have nukes too?
Taiwan was developing nukes in the 1970s and 1980s but the US opposed it. We probably regret that now. Taiwan having nukes could give China a reason to attack though.
Taiwan was developing nukes in the 1970s and 1980s but the US opposed it. We probably regret that now. Taiwan having nukes could give China a reason to attack though.
On the opposite, Republic's and mainlands relationship were never of a dialogue, but a very precarious ceasefire with some trade, and cooperation, but with readiness to restart knife fighting at a blink of an eye. Two tigers staring down each other, one blinks, other pounces the same moment.
A plea with the mainland, or concession on any front will be a trigger for a new strait crisis, not the other way around. Cornering Hsi, and exposing his weakness, and a small round of hostility is certainly better than tempting him to try a full on war.
It is the lack of resolve for a real war with millions dead is what is tempting them. They can afford millions dead, they slay gazillion of innocents every year anyway. Their bet is to wait when we wouldn't. If Ukraine's Zelensky's ever provoked Putin, it was with his insistence on concessions with the dictatorship, and sheepish attitude. His biggest sell to Ukrainians during his election was literally trading political concessions for peace.
Taiwan was developing nukes in the 1970s and 1980s but the US opposed it. We probably regret that now. Taiwan having nukes could give China a reason to attack though.
Taiwan having nukes in seventies would've led to the resolute victory against the opponent who simply didn't have much of radars, jet aviation, or rocketry at the time.
I set New Year resolution to invest more time into technology and less time into geopolitics, so I envy you for doing that already.
But commenting on geopolitics, while being so terribly ill informed about it, seems weird.
-As Russia is finding out with the Ukraine disaster. -a risky war that could draw in the major western powers. Any thoughts...
Russia is winning, hands down, and disaster is solely owned by our western world. Just a fact.
Major western powers?? Can you name a single one beside USA, I mean it should be clear to everyone by now.
"-Germany made mistakes to increase it's dependency on Russian oil."
Doing trade and buying reliable and cheapest energy was a mistake??
Only through the eyes of some very biased ideology. I call that good business.
Trade is how the world works best, share ideas and goods, and by all means buy cheap energy if you can.
Btw, USA buys Russian oil, and Germany buys too but only through Indian middleman. How is that smarter??
-"Analysis" that use of nukes will be solution to anything, is a strange consideration for smart tech guys.
-I have no idea about China politics and their leaders and their plans.
But I envy their engineers for being able to go down the street and buy Lidar ready to use for 7$,
and find, check and use any new technology, readily available all over the place at affordable prices.
That's what we should be doing.
Just read an arthicle on Ukraine using cheap drones to take out expensive targets, producing a hundred drones a day at low cost Taiwan could devestate China at very low cost. The Ukraine war has definitly changed the rules of war thanks to cheap chips and other changes. The rules of war have changed. Taking out the Three gorges dam could be accomplished I have no doubt, just as many high value targets at the same time by overwhelming defensive measures by sheer numbers.
Just read an arthicle on Ukraine using cheap drones to take out expensive targets, producing a hundred drones a day at low cost Taiwan could devestate China at very low cost. The Ukraine war has definitly changed the rules of war thanks to cheap chips and other changes. The rules of war have changed. Taking out the Three gorges dam could be accomplished I have no doubt, just as many high value targets at the same time by overwhelming defensive measures by sheer numbers.
It certainly has. War is much more like a video game everyday and who has the most talented video gamers in the world? China. Who has the most electronics manufacturing capacity? China. And these drones do not require leading edge process technology so China can make their own drone chips as well.
It certainly has. War is much more like a video game everyday and who has the most talented video gamers in the world? China. Who has the most electronics manufacturing capacity? China. And these drones do not require leading edge process technology so China can make their own drone chips as well.
But AI has changed this. If a single person can launch 100 or even 1,000 drones with autonomous, coordinated target search and attack capabilities, the number of available human operators becomes far less important.
(Germany imo made major strategic mistakes to greatly increase it's dependency on Russian oil over the last 10+ years - they really should have known better based on the history of German/central European-Russian relations of the past 300 years). 