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There is little doubt China could take over Taiwan, but there is huge doubt as far as the cost. As Russia is finding out with the Ukraine disaster. It would be far better for China to obtain what it wants by peaceful means through negotiation. With Taiwan's advanced technologies combined with partners in the western world, like Russia, China could see the cost of invading Taiwan raised to an intolerable level especially if it progresses to a war against the western world. War is the last refuge of the incompetent and for all concerned I hope China does not make a mistake of staggering proportions. like Winston Churchill said "to jaw-jaw is better than war-war as Germany found out. China could far better spending its resources to advancement and cooperation to the benefit of all than a risky war that could draw in the major western powers. Any thoughts or comments appreciated, I have no doubt they will make it to the Chinese leadership. A mutual peace and cooperation could be far, far more profitable,
I wouldn't assume Taiwan couldn't defend itself. They have a fairly large military for their size, and islands can be notoriously tricky to invade. There are also reports that Chinese radar in Venezeula completely failed to see American planes; some models of which Taiwan uses or would have access to quickly (even if just for supply drops).
That said, I think even Xi Jinping probably realizes the "prestige" gained within his country* of taking Taiwan will cause permanent economic damage to China and the world.
*(clearly infamy with everyone outside, except maybe 1-2 countries)
That said, I think even Xi Jinping probably realizes the "prestige" gained within his country* of taking Taiwan will cause permanent economic damage to China and the world.
Main economic problem of large scale war is that it ruins domestic consumption, which in case of China is already chronically low, so loses from their perspective will not be that big. Economic activity will transform mainly to war effort and exports to finance war effort.
And there is this perception that trade will collapse, which i think is incorrect because we don't see that in case of Russia. There will be "non-aligned" countries (India, Turkey, post-Soviet republics...) which will continue buying from China. Even EU.. Only US was able to cut Russian imports but only thanks to fact that trade between Russia and US pre-war was virtually nonexistent.
Ukraine is like number 1 priority for EU commission and we are still buying stuff from Russia knowing that these money are going directly to finance that war. So I doubt that we will cut rare earth imports from China for island, Brussels does not even recognizes as a country.
According to the October 1971 joint statement: "The Chinese government reiterates that Taiwan is an inalienable part of the territory of the People's Republic of China. The Belgian government takes note of this statement by the Chinese government. The Belgian government recognizes the Government of the People's Republic of China as the sole legal government of China."
So I believe it is more complicated and China would be able to sustain 20-30 years of pressure. Most probably they will not win, but we should not underestimate.
I do not believe it will happen under the current US administration. My guess is that Taiwan and China will work it out politically and be partners. That is my hope anyway. If Taiwan had to decide between being part of China or part of the US what would they choose?
