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SpaceX Prospectus: $26.5T in AI TAM, $7T by 2030

Xebec

Xebec

Well-known member
I think this is an even bigger number than mentioned by Sam Altman?

"We acquired xAI in February 2026, which forms the basis of our AI segment. We expect to allocate substantial
capital to expand our compute infrastructure, and we expect a multi-year investment horizon before these
deployments translate into sustained positive AI Segment Adjusted EBITDA. During this investment period, our
capital expenditures will scale as quickly as we are able to deploy power and compute to address the $26.5 trillion
potential market opportunity for AI."

also, regarding the AI market mid-term:

"
AI Compute
Massive demand for frontier AI models is accelerating the build-out of AI infrastructure at a pace and scale with few
historical precedents. Meeting projected AI needs will require $7 trillion in global data center investment through
2030, with generative AI workloads expected to account for roughly 70% of total data-center power demand by the
end of the decade"


1779312714890.png
 
The lying by this man to prop up the stock market needs to be studied for future generations. How utterly insane to put into an IPO filing. We make dark comedic jokes about companies claiming that every human and joule of energy on earth was their TAM, and Musk just puts it right into an official federal filing document.

But hey at least the thin veil that this isn’t just a giant casino is now totally removed. As if $TSLA or GameStop didn’t already show that.
 
Brady said:
The lying by this man to prop up the stock market needs to be studied for future generations. How utterly insane to put into an IPO filing. We make dark comedic jokes about companies claiming that every human and joule of energy on earth was their TAM, and Musk just puts it right into an official federal filing document.

But hey at least the thin veil that this isn’t just a giant casino is now totally removed. As if $TSLA or GameStop didn’t already show that.
Click to expand...
Luckily, most businesses do not rely on ‘great expectations’ and - arguably - trade at reasonable valuations. But I agree with you here. When it comes to public investment opportunities related to Musk, I have never been able to connect business case, valuation and reality, and this IPO does not change that impression.
 
Xebec said:
I think this is an even bigger number than mentioned by Sam Altman?

"We acquired xAI in February 2026, which forms the basis of our AI segment. We expect to allocate substantial
capital to expand our compute infrastructure, and we expect a multi-year investment horizon before these
deployments translate into sustained positive AI Segment Adjusted EBITDA. During this investment period, our
capital expenditures will scale as quickly as we are able to deploy power and compute to address the $26.5 trillion
potential market opportunity for AI."

also, regarding the AI market mid-term:

"
AI Compute
Massive demand for frontier AI models is accelerating the build-out of AI infrastructure at a pace and scale with few
historical precedents. Meeting projected AI needs will require $7 trillion in global data center investment through
2030, with generative AI workloads expected to account for roughly 70% of total data-center power demand by the
end of the decade"


View attachment 4591
Click to expand...

This is a quick and interesting review of SpaceX IPO .

 
hist78 said:
This is a quick and interesting review of SpaceX IPO .

Click to expand...
Boyle quotes a Bloomberg piece in the end, which states the investment thesis as “you like Elon Musk and want to go for the ride with him”.

It is a very precise description in my eyes, but it astonishes me that something like this can be accepted for public trade. When they launch they will atomatically tap into huge passively managed funds. There should be a quality treshold, or else it starts to look like rich people stealing from small savers.
 
Last edited:
Boyle isn't wrong with this take* -- but look at his entire list of videos -- he doesn't seem to find positiivty in anything he posts on Youtube :). If you want a doomsday version of something, he is your guy.

*A space launch company betting most of it's future on AI .. is a choice.
 
Xebec said:
Boyle isn't wrong with this take* -- but look at his entire list of videos -- he doesn't seem to find positiivty in anything he posts on Youtube :). If you want a doomsday version of something, he is your guy.

*A space launch company betting most of it's future on AI .. is a choice.
Click to expand...

Or, is he a party pooper who likes to share unpleasant truths?
 
some people will buy into Space X IPO because there are few countries/companies able to reach Space. if Rocket Lab, a company that's losing money can get listed then why not SpaceX. Starlink already proven to be a critical tech in Ukraine war.

some people will buy in 'caues as they said Space is the final frontier.
 
Xebec said:
Someone who is 100% negative is .. probably skipping at least one positive thing, occasionally :)

I wouldn't recommend trusting 100% positive sources, either.
Click to expand...
I think Boyle mentions the positives (Starlink and how far they’ve pushed rocket tech).

But I also think he’s right that the positives are minuscule compared to the downsides (extreme valuation, very odd shareholder terms, high tech risk, cash burn etc.)
 
Ole Hoejlund said:
I think Boyle mentions the positives (Starlink and how far they’ve pushed rocket tech).

But I also think he’s right that the positives are minuscule compared to the downsides (extreme valuation, very odd shareholder terms, high tech risk, cash burn etc.)
Click to expand...

That's fair.

I admit I skimmed it and should watch the full thing. I've just watched a number of his other videos - and they were often lopsided negative, regardless of the topic. The world is depressing enough that I avoid 100% negative content creators :).
 
Xebec said:
That's fair.

I admit I skimmed it and should watch the full thing. I've just watched a number of his other videos - and they were often lopsided negative, regardless of the topic. The world is depressing enough that I avoid 100% negative content creators :).
Click to expand...
I totally get you. It’s so easy to end in a very dark rabbit hole these days…
 
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