SpaceX Prospectus: $26.5T in AI TAM, $7T by 2030

[Xebec]

I think this is an even bigger number than mentioned by Sam Altman?

"We acquired xAI in February 2026, which forms the basis of our AI segment. We expect to allocate substantial
capital to expand our compute infrastructure, and we expect a multi-year investment horizon before these
deployments translate into sustained positive AI Segment Adjusted EBITDA. During this investment period, our
capital expenditures will scale as quickly as we are able to deploy power and compute to address the $26.5 trillion
potential market opportunity for AI."

also, regarding the AI market mid-term:

"
AI Compute
Massive demand for frontier AI models is accelerating the build-out of AI infrastructure at a pace and scale with few
historical precedents. Meeting projected AI needs will require $7 trillion in global data center investment through
2030, with generative AI workloads expected to account for roughly 70% of total data-center power demand by the
end of the decade"

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm

 

[Xebec]

I definitely didn't expect SpaceX to lean 71X as hard on AI as .. Space for their addressable market..

 

[lefty]

The full details are here: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm
They lost $5 billion in 2025. Most of the losses are due to xAI.
Edit - something I just noticed:
They are currently spending $16 billion per quarter and they only have $15 billion in cash. They had to do the IPO, or it would have gone bankrupt.

 

[Barnsley]

The full details are here: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm
They lost $5 billion in 2025. Most of the losses are due to xAI.
Edit - something I just noticed:
They are currently spending $16 billion per quarter and they only have $15 billion in cash. They had to do the IPO, or it would have gone bankrupt.

Surely not!

 

[Brady]

The lying by this man to prop up the stock market needs to be studied for future generations. How utterly insane to put into an IPO filing. We make dark comedic jokes about companies claiming that every human and joule of energy on earth was their TAM, and Musk just puts it right into an official federal filing document.

But hey at least the thin veil that this isn’t just a giant casino is now totally removed. As if $TSLA or GameStop didn’t already show that.

 

[Ole Hoejlund]

The lying by this man to prop up the stock market needs to be studied for future generations. How utterly insane to put into an IPO filing. We make dark comedic jokes about companies claiming that every human and joule of energy on earth was their TAM, and Musk just puts it right into an official federal filing document.

But hey at least the thin veil that this isn’t just a giant casino is now totally removed. As if $TSLA or GameStop didn’t already show that.

Luckily, most businesses do not rely on ‘great expectations’ and - arguably - trade at reasonable valuations. But I agree with you here. When it comes to public investment opportunities related to Musk, I have never been able to connect business case, valuation and reality, and this IPO does not change that impression.