Arthur Hanson
Well-known member
The economics, skill set and fabs will make semiconductor companies and the numerous companies that support them the dominant players in the nanotech industry. This is an industry still in its infancy that is going to have a long runway as far as time and breadth of the type of products turned out. Mems, sensors and power sources are going to be more diverse than most can even comprehend or imagine. Fabs as they go obsolete for semis will find a ready market in nanotechnology in numerous areas as different industries discover new uses for nanotechnology to dramatically lower costs and increase performance. The semi companies have had the mind set of working with very rapidly advancing technology at numerous nanotech levels with a broad and deep skill and mind sets.
Medical will be one of the first areas that this will come into play as Mems, sensors and power sources are integrated into the human body. Even compared to the most expensive cell phone, many of these devices will be far more expensive, driving a rapidly increasing market in breadth and scope. Older fabs will become profit machines as they turn out new high value products for medical use. As we age or are injured nanotech parts and devices will more and more replace malfunctioning or non functioning parts of our body. We have seen just the very tip of this market so far and it isn't a stretch to see the average senior, injured or disabled person having tens or thousands or even over a hundred thousand dollars of nanotech parts made by a semi fabrication company. In many cases these devices will be a bargain through being far cheaper than standard medical and vastly increasing the productivity and their useful life dramatically. Many of these devices will be coupled with processors and memory in a single SOC.
There will also be numerous uses for these devices in many industries due to the ability of the semi industries constant mind set of faster, better, cheaper driving everything. All this will continue the geometric growth of the semi companies by giving them whole new frontiers to conquer. It isn't hard to conceive of a twenty percent compound growth rate in this area, since it is so broad and so deep. For tool, material, EDA and others this will prolong and accelerate already increasing growth rates. Packaging will be an ever more important technology as more technologies and functions that we haven't even imagined are incorporated into ever more complex SOCs.
The only problem now with expansion for many companies is in which is the best direction to direct their resources. The problem won't be lack or opportunity, but to many opportunities to chose from due to a constraint on resources. Companies that master working with AI/ML will be the ultimate winners at this game. We are all going to have to have a totally different mind set as a confluence of opportunity and technologies change at a rate I call the "Great Acceleration".
Any opinions on which companies will play and dominate any part of this supply chain solicited and welcome.
Medical will be one of the first areas that this will come into play as Mems, sensors and power sources are integrated into the human body. Even compared to the most expensive cell phone, many of these devices will be far more expensive, driving a rapidly increasing market in breadth and scope. Older fabs will become profit machines as they turn out new high value products for medical use. As we age or are injured nanotech parts and devices will more and more replace malfunctioning or non functioning parts of our body. We have seen just the very tip of this market so far and it isn't a stretch to see the average senior, injured or disabled person having tens or thousands or even over a hundred thousand dollars of nanotech parts made by a semi fabrication company. In many cases these devices will be a bargain through being far cheaper than standard medical and vastly increasing the productivity and their useful life dramatically. Many of these devices will be coupled with processors and memory in a single SOC.
There will also be numerous uses for these devices in many industries due to the ability of the semi industries constant mind set of faster, better, cheaper driving everything. All this will continue the geometric growth of the semi companies by giving them whole new frontiers to conquer. It isn't hard to conceive of a twenty percent compound growth rate in this area, since it is so broad and so deep. For tool, material, EDA and others this will prolong and accelerate already increasing growth rates. Packaging will be an ever more important technology as more technologies and functions that we haven't even imagined are incorporated into ever more complex SOCs.
The only problem now with expansion for many companies is in which is the best direction to direct their resources. The problem won't be lack or opportunity, but to many opportunities to chose from due to a constraint on resources. Companies that master working with AI/ML will be the ultimate winners at this game. We are all going to have to have a totally different mind set as a confluence of opportunity and technologies change at a rate I call the "Great Acceleration".
Any opinions on which companies will play and dominate any part of this supply chain solicited and welcome.
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