Pete Hegseth: US will go to war to stop China from taking Taiwan

[Barnsley]

Not completely that - Legally, Britain couldn't actually do anything because they'd be in the wrong if they didn't hand back the portion of Hong Kong that was leased to them for 99 years - Taiwan seems a different case, because they interpret themselves as the "One China", while with the British they actually acknowledged the 99 year lease (China's military strength definitely played a role, especially when they informed Britain they would not renew the lease - but legally, the British had no true recourse and everyone knew it). They really tried to see if it was possible to hold onto only the land that was ceded to them permanently, but ultimately it was too difficult and unfeasible (and also, China could simply roll in with its military - as they did allude to at the start of negotiations - but we never reached that point, and I believe would have created a situation similar to one we would see if China invaded Taiwan). China did not yet have the economic strength. Military strength, yes, they had enough bodies (and nukes) to take back Hong Kong. Ultimately, everyone realized that splitting Hong Kong in two was not possible and China had every right to take Hong Kong back - but China wanted to make sure to do this in a way that showed the world they were developing and moving forward - otherwise it would have spooked foreign investment.

China during the 90s was still a rising superpower and Hong Kong equated to 10-15% of its total GDP - and the sanctions that the rest of the world could wield upon them could have definitely blocked their industry expansion. The meteoric, exponential growth was only just beginning - and would have been stopped right in its tracks. The world would go somewhere else for cheap labor - China had not moved up the value chain yet at that time, so the possibility for sanctions and the end of all foreign investment in China was very real and would have had massive impacts. (Not saying sanctions on China wouldn't work today, but they would hurt the countries doing the sanctioning a lot more)

Nominal GDP of different countries by year: (look at 1997)
View attachment 3253

The other SAR, Macau, was ceded indefinitely, but China used a grey tactic - starting riots during the Cultural Revolution that the Portuguese were unable to control, which forced them to negotiate secretly and gave China de-facto control, and it was eventually returned (the Portuguese also wanted to return it earlier, but that's another story).

The Taiwan question has different interpretations of the One-China policy, that allows for legal ambiguity. The Hong Kong problem was very clear and laid out. Everyone agreed that you had a 99 year lease that was expiring. The British even acknowledged it when they first went to Beijing to get an extension. The ROC and PRC claim different things about who is the "One China".

We still have 11 countries and the Holy See recognizing Taiwan as the "One China". It certainly helps that there is a large strait between Taiwan and China, that Taiwan has a military that would fight back, Taiwan is the center of semiconductor manufacturing, and the US have a defense treaty with them.

I do wonder how things would have played out if Hong Kong had a 150 year lease - would China try to take it back early? I do think so, though they would try to use different justification (false flag attack, maybe), and be forced to use military and economic means - but it definitely could leave a bad taste in everyone's mouth (Hong Kong before the 90s was partially free, but not democratic - though the people there appreciated the additional freedoms they had over China - and I do wonder whether and when the UK would have actually initiated a democratic transition if there was a 150 year lease) and cause a whole lot of headaches - and in this universe, I think it would completely prevent them from taking Taiwan, who would invest even more heavily in their military after seeing what happened.

New Terrortories was 99yr Lease.

Hong Kong Island was forever.

It was returned as what was the point of keeping it?

The UK Taxpayer wasnt gonna support funding it thats for sure.

 

[Barnsley]

Agree that legally HK had to be returned and it's not an exact parallel to the Taiwan issue. But I'd argue that the big boys (US, China, Russia etc.) always re-write the "legal" rules when they don't like it. HK was taken in by the British Empire and returned by a much weakened UK.

Latest example of re-writing the rules is Ukraine - Russia, US and a few others guaranteed its borders in a 1994 agreement if only it de-nuclearized (Ukraine had the 3rd largest nuclear arsenal in the world at the time - ex-Soviet nukes). It did and now the agreement is nowhere to be found.

Again Hong Kong Island did not need to be returned.

As per usual no talk on the land taken by the Russians.

Can change the record or not.

 

[Daniel Nenni]

Peace is the absence of war; countries exist in a delicate balance-of-power.

As long as TSMC stays ahead of Intel, my take is that there will be no war between China and the US over Taiwan. TSMC staying ahead means our way-of-life in the West remains within China's grasp.

Ultimately I think Taiwan will be re-united with China just like Hong Kong was. Chinese military and economic strength became so overwhelming that for Britain, after 156 years, Hong Kong simply wasn't worth defending any more.

If not for the semiconductor industry I agree. Unfortunately Intel will never have the scale of TSMC so Taiwan will be independent for the foreseeable future. The Taiwan Government and citizens are 100% behind TSMC for this reason. The Silicon Shield gets stronger with every new TSMC fab built no matter what country it is in.

 

[XYang2023]

A lot of people in Taiwan do not believe US will assist Taiwan and the gap in terms of military capabilities is too large for Taiwan to defence itself. What they want is peaceful resolution. I don't think TSM is helping here.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1932987210632138866

 

[sonchoy]

A lot of people in Taiwan do not believe US will assist Taiwan and the gap in terms of military capabilities is too large for Taiwan to defence itself. What they want is peaceful resolution. I don't think TSM is helping here.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1932987210632138866

This is correct; Taiwan's defense spending has been below even some of the NATO members for a while. This is not a state that is preparing to fight back the Goliath.

 

[hist78]

A lot of people in Taiwan do not believe US will assist Taiwan and the gap in terms of military capabilities is too large for Taiwan to defence itself. What they want is peaceful resolution. I don't think TSM is helping here.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1932987210632138866

@XYang2023, before recommending something to the readers here, could you please take the time to seriously review both the content and the blogger yourself?

This X/Twitter account is filled with praise for the Chinese Communist Party and consistently attacks individuals who oppose the CCP.

In other words, this account serves as a propaganda outlet for the Chinese Communist Party. Do you truly believe you are obligated to act as their messenger or promoter?

 

[Daniel Nenni]

A lot of people in Taiwan do not believe US will assist Taiwan and the gap in terms of military capabilities is too large for Taiwan to defend itself. What they want is peaceful resolution. I don't think TSM is helping here.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1932987210632138866

Remember, CC Wei is friends with Trump now. As are Jensen Huang, Lisa Hsu, Tim Cook etc... Anyone that can invest billions of dollars in the US economy. I really think Taiwan has the president's ear. The only concern is that if China makes the US a better offer.

 

[XYang2023]

Remember, CC Wei is friends with Trump now. As are Jensen Huang, Lisa Hsu, Tim Cook etc... Anyone that can invest billions of dollars in the US economy. I really think Taiwan has the president's ear. The only concern is that if China makes the US a better offer.

The simple fact is that people in Taiwan want a peaceful resolution. For China, reunification is not-negotiable. Hence what TSM is doing (holding the world at hostage) is not aligning with the interest of the people and the opposite side.

 

[XYang2023]

@XYang2023, before recommending something to the readers here, could you please take the time to seriously review both the content and the blogger yourself?

This X/Twitter account is filled with praise for the Chinese Communist Party and consistently attacks individuals who oppose the CCP.

In other words, this account serves as a propaganda outlet for the Chinese Communist Party. Do you truly believe you are obligated to act as their messenger or promoter?

If you are from Taiwan, you should know the person being interviewed. It is not about the twitter account.

 

[Daniel Nenni]

The simple fact is that people in Taiwan want a peaceful resolution. For China, reunification is not-negotiable. Hence what TSM is doing (holding the world at hostage) is not aligning with the interest of the people and the opposite side.

I have not been to Taiwan recently but Hsinchu was my second home for many years and I have a lot of friends there. At no time did I ever get the indication that the Taiwanese people were open to being taken over by China. The complete opposite in fact. Will Taiwan go to war against China? Probably not unless it is a drone only battle. Will Taiwan go to war with China backed by a coalition of countries including the US? Absolutely, that is what the Silicon Shield is all about and it has been developing for many years. This is not a half assed defensive attempt.

The other thing Taiwan has going for itself is the experience of the Ukraine and Israel war. Military strategies and technology are no longer a secret. Whoever has the best drone technology will win and Taiwan is working hard on it. War is no longer about boots on the ground. If the US and allies put a no fly zone around Taiwan, like they should have in Ukraine, war can be averted, my opinion.

 

[XYang2023]

I have not been to Taiwan recently but Hsinchu was my second home for many years and I have a lot of friends there. At no time did I ever get the indication that the Taiwanese people were open to being taken over by China. The complete opposite in fact. Will Taiwan go to war against China? Probably not unless it is a drone only battle. Will Taiwan go to war with China backed by a coalition of countries including the US? Absolutely, that is what the Silicon Shield is all about and it has been developing for many years. This is not a half assed defensive attempt.

The other thing Taiwan has going for itself is the experience of the Ukraine and Israel war. Military strategies and technology are no longer a secret. Whoever has the best drone technology will win and Taiwan is working hard on it. War is no longer about boots on the ground. If the US and allies put a no fly zone around Taiwan, like they should have in Ukraine, war can be averted, my opinion.

I think the gap is too large. Also, China is the leading producer of drones and robotics.


If TSMC were relocated, defense spending could instead be used to improve people's lives and reduce power bills. These are costs that aren’t factored into TSMC’s wafer prices.


There are many other industries worth exploring beyond semiconductors. Taiwan could also focus on biotech and other sectors.

 

[Daniel Nenni]

I think the gap is too large. Also, China is the leading producer of drones and robotics.
If TSMC were relocated, defense spending could instead be used to improve people's lives and reduce power bills. These are costs that aren’t factored into TSMC’s wafer prices.
There are many other industries worth exploring beyond semiconductors. Taiwan could also focus on biotech and other sectors.

I think it would be easier for China to leave Taiwan alone rather than relocating TSMC. Just from a logistical standpoint. Have you heard much about China and drone defense? A lot of R&D is now focused on drone defense technology. The semiconductor industry is really stepping up here, absolutely.

 

[kevin01]

Remember, CC Wei is friends with Trump now. As are Jensen Huang, Lisa Hsu, Tim Cook etc... Anyone that can invest billions of dollars in the US economy. I really think Taiwan has the president's ear. The only concern is that if China makes the US a better offer.

The calculation, from the U.S. side, won't be about whose offers are bigger or more beautiful. It will be about, in U.S. perception, whether the U.S. military can win or not, especially in an area so close to China. China has advanced its military capabilities in the last 20-30 years, so much so that the above question is a very valid one now. Thirty years ago, that was not a question.

That said, I would not speculate if or when the 'unification' would happen, as China has serious internal issues to deal with, too.

 

[soAsian]

If you are from Taiwan, you should know the person being interviewed. It is not about the twitter account.

If you're from Taiwan, you should know that person switches party colors like the wind. He used to be all for pan-blue, then pan-green.

Heck, that guy even organized an anti-red media (China) rally.

This is him at the "anti-red media" rally: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fGbQNyOFVA

This is him being anti-China:

For English speakers, here's his Wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holger_Chen

If you want to know more about the person XYang2023 posted, the Wikipedia page is a good start. However, it's a waste of your time, in my opinion.