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OpenAI won't buy Intel's AI chips says Associate Professor

Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
Tim Derdenger.jpg


Snipets:

OpenAI has been making it rain infrastructure deals. The AI startup just dropped another $38 billion on Amazon Web Services, adding to agreements with Oracle, Microsoft, AMD, and a plethora of other deals that total over $1 trillion this year so far. But there's one company conspicuously missing from the invite list to this very expensive party. Intel, the former belle of the Silicon Valley ball, is now watching everyone else dance.

So when OpenAI came knocking in 2017, hat in hand, asking Intel to invest in their fledgling AI startup, Intel said no thanks. Why would the king of computing need to bet on some nonprofit's sci-fi dreams?

Now, Intel is the one begging for a seat at the table while OpenAI doesn't seem to be interested.

"Why go back to a firm that has an inferior product and also snubbed you?" said Tim Derdenger, an associate professor at Carnegie Mellon's Tepper School of Business.

Derdenger pointed out that OpenAI's strategy mirrors how Microsoft once managed Intel's dominance by cultivating AMD as a second source. The approach allows OpenAI to credibly threaten to shift orders between suppliers rather than being held hostage by a single vendor.

"When you build out a data center, it's not just the chip. You have to have the software that works and communicates with the chip," Derdenger said. "It's the system effect that matters."

 
Tim actually builds a case for Lip-Bu and IFS. Microsoft cultivated a second source (AMD) and when you build a datacenter it is not just the chip it's the system that matters. Intel Foundry is the second source to TSMC and Intel is in the systems business.

One thing Intel and Open AI do have in common is Nvidia and Softbank are both investors. Lip-Bu is not even 1 year into the job so I would not bet against a deal with Sam Altman happening. Or maybe Lip-Bu will team up with Elon Musk instead? Exiting times in the semiconductor industry, absolutely.

Timeline of OpenAI Valuation History​

OpenAI's rise in value tells an amazing story of how a research lab became one of the world's most valuable companies. Let's get into the key financial milestones that shaped this incredible experience.

2015–2018: Non-profit beginnings​

Sam Altman, Elon Musk, Ilya Sutskever, Greg Brockman, and several other tech leaders started OpenAI in December 2015 as a nonprofit organization. The founders and investors like Reid Hoffman, Jessica Livingston, Peter Thiel, Amazon Web Services, Infosys, and YC Research pledged $1 billion in capital.

The company collected only $130 million until 2019. OpenAI stayed true to its nonprofit status during these early years. Its mission focused on making AI development beneficial for everyone.

2019: Microsoft's $1B investment​

The company made a big change in 2019 by moving from a pure nonprofit to a "capped" for-profit model. This move helped OpenAI attract venture funding and give employees equity stakes. The company needed this to compete with tech giants like Google and Facebook for talent.

Microsoft invested $1 billion in OpenAI in July 2019 and became its exclusive computing partner. They worked together to build new Azure AI supercomputing technologies. Microsoft became OpenAI's only cloud provider. Their collaborative effort created the foundation for AI advances while following shared ethics and trust principles.

2021: GPT-3 and $20B valuation​

OpenAI's value reached about $14 billion by April 2021 after launching DALL-E, their specialized deep learning model that creates images from text descriptions. GPT-3's unprecedented natural language processing capabilities marked the start of OpenAI's commercial success.

2023: $86B valuation post GPT-4​

Microsoft added another $10 billion investment in January 2023. This deal gave Microsoft rights to 75% of OpenAI's profits until they got their investment back, plus a 49% stake in the company.

The company's value grew faster in 2023 – from $29 billion in January to $86 billion by February. GPT-4's release and ChatGPT's viral growth drove this increase. ChatGPT became the fastest-growing consumer software app ever, getting over 100 million users in just two months.

2024: $157B after $6.6B raise​

OpenAI raised $6.6 billion in October 2024, pushing its value to $157 billion. This became the second-largest private funding round at that time. Microsoft, Nvidia, and SoftBank led the investment, showing OpenAI's growing importance in the tech industry.

2025: $300B after $40B round​

The company achieved its biggest fundraising success in March 2025 with a $40 billion round that valued it at $300 billion. SoftBank led this historic raise with a $30 billion commitment. This became the largest private tech funding round ever.

Previous investors Microsoft, Thrive Capital, Altimeter, and Coatue joined the round. The company needs to become a Delaware Public Benefit Corporation by December 2025 to get half of this funding.

ChatGPT now has 500 million weekly active users. OpenAI expects its revenue to triple to $12.7 billion by 2025's end. The company aims to reach $100 billion in revenue by 2029. This goal requires 93% yearly growth for five years - something only a few companies have ever achieved.

Major OpenAI Funding Rounds and Investors​

OpenAI's incredible rise in value comes from several big-name investors whose major investments shaped the company's path. Their money didn't just help with funding - it completely changed how the company grew and what it aimed to achieve.

Early funding and Elon Musk's role​

OpenAI started in late 2015 with plans to raise $100 million. Elon Musk wanted something bigger and said: "We need to go with a much bigger number than $100M to avoid sounding hopeless... I think we should say that we are starting with a $1B funding commitment". The public heard about this $1 billion pledge, but the company only collected $130 million by 2019.

Nobody knows exactly how much Musk gave personally. OpenAI says he put in less than $45 million, and TechCrunch dug up proof of about $15 million in donations from him. He backed the company at first but ended up leaving the board in 2018 after disagreeing about where OpenAI was headed.

Microsoft's multi-round investments​

Microsoft stepped up as OpenAI's biggest supporter with a crucial $1 billion investment in 2019. This deal made Microsoft OpenAI's only cloud provider, and all AI systems now run on Azure infrastructure.

Microsoft doubled down in January 2023 with $10 billion more, bringing their total support to around $13 billion. The tech giant added another $750 million in October 2024 as part of OpenAI's $6.6 billion funding round.

SoftBank's $30B commitment​

SoftBank made waves in 2025 by promising $30 billion to OpenAI. They led a massive $40 billion funding round - the biggest private tech investment anyone has ever seen. The catch? SoftBank wants OpenAI to become a for-profit company by December 31, 2025.

Other key investors: NVIDIA, Thrive, Sequoia​

OpenAI's appeal extends beyond these major players. Josh Kushner's Thrive Capital put in $1.3 billion during the October 2024 funding round. NVIDIA joined with $100 million, which gives the chipmaker a strategic spot in OpenAI's world.

The 2024 round brought in other big names too. Tiger Global Management added $350 million, Altimeter Capital invested $250 million, and SoftBank Group contributed $500 million. Sequoia Capital backed OpenAI early on but sat out the latest big funding rounds.

All these investments add up to roughly $63.92 billion since OpenAI started. This funding story stands out as one of tech's most remarkable.
 
View attachment 3843

Snipets:

OpenAI has been making it rain infrastructure deals. The AI startup just dropped another $38 billion on Amazon Web Services, adding to agreements with Oracle, Microsoft, AMD, and a plethora of other deals that total over $1 trillion this year so far. But there's one company conspicuously missing from the invite list to this very expensive party. Intel, the former belle of the Silicon Valley ball, is now watching everyone else dance.

So when OpenAI came knocking in 2017, hat in hand, asking Intel to invest in their fledgling AI startup, Intel said no thanks. Why would the king of computing need to bet on some nonprofit's sci-fi dreams?

Now, Intel is the one begging for a seat at the table while OpenAI doesn't seem to be interested.

"Why go back to a firm that has an inferior product and also snubbed you?" said Tim Derdenger, an associate professor at Carnegie Mellon's Tepper School of Business.

Derdenger pointed out that OpenAI's strategy mirrors how Microsoft once managed Intel's dominance by cultivating AMD as a second source. The approach allows OpenAI to credibly threaten to shift orders between suppliers rather than being held hostage by a single vendor.

"When you build out a data center, it's not just the chip. You have to have the software that works and communicates with the chip," Derdenger said. "It's the system effect that matters."

While I happen to agree with the professor, why is an associate professor in a business school considered an expert in what AI chips OpenAI would choose?
 
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