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Morris Chang was on the TSMC Q4 2015 Earnings Call!

Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
It is good to see him back on the call. I will do a more detailed analysis of the call this weekend but lets talk about it here in preparation:

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's (TSM) CEO Mark Liu on Q4 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha

TSMC (TSM +4.1%) is above $21 after beating Q4 EPS estimates (revenue was already known via monthly sales reports) and guiding for Q1 revenue of NT$198B-NT$201B ($5.94B-$6.03B), in-line with an NT$200.2B consensus. Soft smartphone demand and reports of iPhone sales weakness/order cuts had led to low expectations - TSMC is both directly exposed to Apple via A-series CPU manufacturing, and indirectly exposed via manufacturing work for Apple chip suppliers.

The world's biggest chip foundry also set a 2016 capex budget of $9B-$10B, higher than 2015 capex of $8.12B. TSMC plans to ramp production for its 16nm FinFET process this year, and begin volume production for its 10nm process by year's end.

Q4 details: Gross margin fell rose 40 bps Q/Q and fell 110 bps Y/Y to 48.6%, and was in-line with guidance of 47.5%-49.5%. Q1 GM guidance is at 47%-49%. 16/20nm chips were 24% of wafer revenue, and 28nm chips 25%. That respectively compares with 21% and 27% in Q3.

TSMC's commentary remains subdued. Chairman Morris Chang: "I had expected the first quarter to be stronger than what we’re forecasting now. I am not repeating my pledge, my prediction, that ’17, ’18, ’19 will continue to grow at 10 percent." CFO Lora Ho: "While China's smartphone market shows signs of recovery, customers remain cautious in general."
Smaller rival UMC (UMC +2.7%) is also up.

TSMC's Q4 results, earnings release

 
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Based on what I heard last week TSMC has started 5nm without EUV. And I'm wondering if EUV will ever have the capacity for Apple? Their dies are getting bigger and more complex and will require more wafers even if demand is constant, which it is not.

Frits van Hout, ASML Chief Program Officer, did a presentation last week:

EUV benefits confirmed as volume production becomes visible on the horizon

Most of the specific test data was for DRAM but here is the most interesting slide:

View attachment 16341
 
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