Many job losses from advancing tech, not recession

[Arthur Hanson]

Many of the jobs being lost are from the recession, but a significant amount of from advancing technologies in platforms enabled by better communications, memory and processing power all at ever lower costs. Much of the job loss is from dislocation caused by advancing technologies and the recession. Just like in many past economic downturns, technology is changing all the rules of society and businesses, creating new markets and opportunities while destroying others. One aspect you can count on is new types of businesses that will be created by the people that see new opportunities created by technology at an ever increasing rate. AI/ML can be counted on to create much more dislocations in everything as they both increase the use of automation in everything from the physical to the professions. Fields for the law, accounting, advertising, marketing, design of all types are going through ever accelerating change. Code readers of all types for everything from data systems, to cars, trucks, airplanes and others have radically changed trouble shooting time and show no signs of slowing down. Those companies and individuals that have the talents to constantly innovate and adapt will be the winners.

 

[blueone]

Much of the job loss is from dislocation caused by advancing technologies

I can't see any evidence for this in the USG labor statistics.

Table 5. Layoffs and discharges levels and rates by industry and region, seasonally adjusted - 2025 M03 Results

www.bls.gov

The biggest reductions occurred in business services, which are cyclical, and they over-hired during the pandemic. Many tech companies are having an over-hiring party hangover. Startups are being directed to reduce spending, so thousands of little companies are cutting back. None of the sectors where the biggest reductions occurred are being grossly affected by technology. One substantial change that has occurred is that the work from home movement is reducing investments and value in commercial office space, but that really isn't due to advancing technology, unless you think video conferencing is a fundamental breakthrough. It isn't. The breakthrough is that the pandemic made distributed meetings more normal. A good example is the US legal system, as now many depositions and even trials happen over video conferencing. But big companies were using video conferencing in the 1990s. Teaming software, like Slack, MS Teams, etc. have enhanced teamwork, but haven't caused personnel reductions.

 

[Arthur Hanson]

I can't see any evidence for this in the USG labor statistics.

Table 5. Layoffs and discharges levels and rates by industry and region, seasonally adjusted - 2025 M03 Results

www.bls.gov

The biggest reductions occurred in business services, which are cyclical, and they over-hired during the pandemic. Many tech companies are having an over-hiring party hangover. Startups are being directed to reduce spending, so thousands of little companies are cutting back. None of the sectors where the biggest reductions occurred are being grossly affected by technology. One substantial change that has occurred is that the work from home movement is reducing investments and value in commercial office space, but that really isn't due to advancing technology, unless you think video conferencing is a fundamental breakthrough. It isn't. The breakthrough is that the pandemic made distributed meetings more normal. A good example is the US legal system, as now many depositions and even trials happen over video conferencing. But big companies were using video conferencing in the 1990s. Teaming software, like Slack, MS Teams, etc. have enhanced teamwork, but haven't caused personnel reductions.

I'm seeing in many sectors tech vastly leveraging the amount of work that can be completed and the quality by advancing tech of all types. This is having an impact as fewer people are required to do much more work in shorter amounts of time by a considerable margin. I would say a good ten percent and more in many areas from personal observation and experience. In many cases over twenty percent. Advancing technologies and productivity increases that were previously thought unimaginable are now reality. From robotics for manual labor to platforms for professions, productivity is climbing in everything. In oil drilling sensors put down the hole and many other technologies have totally changed the game and vastly improved productivity. This trend is only going to accelerate as time goes on. Even in our houses, automated vacuums and floor cleaners are increasing their penetration and this will only increase not only in the home, but commercial buildings. Advances in everything are also reducing maintenance requirements in everything from cars to trucks to airliners, even ships. This is creating accelerating dislocations and labor requirements. This trend is taking place in everything at all levels and will have to be taken into account in not only business, but one's career. This trend is accelerating and there is no going back.

 

[Xebec]

A few other considerations that make determining any employment rates and transitions, muddy.

At least for the US Government, 1 person having two jobs can potentially count as 200% employment. The way jobs are counted is to contact employers and ask how many employees they have -- not the other way around. Also, a part time job can count as 'employed'.

COVID has reduced our available working population globally a little quicker than 'usual attrition'. It's hard to tell by how much this is affecting employment/unemployment.

The great inflationary events are causing people to change what they outsource and what they do themselves. This may mean more embracing of technology, but also may just mean economic reality.

A large portion of the world's population is aging out of the workforce, our total # of 'employed' people should be lower as the population ages. (Population aging has two effects- retirement, and more expensive labor. more expensive labor also means reduced jobs hired/filled).

Arthur - I think long term you're right, in the advanced economies we'll see more automation taking away certain types of jobs, but at least since the industrial revolution - new and different jobs pop up. It's going to take a while..

 

[tonyget]

but at least since the industrial revolution - new and different jobs pop up. It's going to take a while..

Yes，there will always be new types of jobs poping up as the society develops. Nowadys you have people playing games and streaming live eating as job，unthinkable 20 years ago