Is Taiwan's Silicon Shield a Security Guarantee or a Target?

[Fred Chen]

if we count Intels Internal volume it's not Samsung count Internal volume in it's revenue as well

This may be shocking (it was to me) but actually the billions in loss is with the Intel products included, see https://www.nextplatform.com/2024/04/04/intels-chips-no-longer-pay-more-than-their-fair-share-of-foundry-costs/#:~:text=But for now, Intel Foundry,his vitamins and keep running.

The "New" Method is with the Intel internal volume (calculated per group), while the "Old" Method is only external volume (much lower).

 

[Jert]

I came across this video when someone posted the link on WeChat.

I found the content interesting because I am interested in net-zero initiatives, and the video focuses on electrification.

My perspective centers on efficiency and competitiveness in general. I shared this here because many people do not fully understand China's progress. Without a balanced view, it could lead to misjudgments.

For some perspective, in Australia, we have abundant renewable energy resources. However, the most habitable areas of the country are coastal cities. Modernizing the electricity grid is necessary to achieve net-zero, but I am skeptical because progress here is extremely slow. For instance, even a simple project like redeveloping a pier can take several years to complete:
https://www.parks.vic.gov.au/projects/melbourne-region/st-kilda-pier-redevelopment

In addition to the slow pace, human capital costs in Australia are significantly higher than in China. I can imagine that a maintainer like those shown in the video could cost around $1,000 per hour here. Meanwhile, in China, $1,000 to $2,000 could cover an entire month's salary for a similar worker.

A true admirer of the "efficient" and "impressive" CCP China should simply move (back) to China to enjoy its full benefits....

I could be wrong, but Taiwan's silicon shield has always been a total myth to me.

The continued and further concentration of the bleeding edge advanced nodes mfg in Taiwan that powers today's global economy, IMHO, actually further induces CCP China's wild motivation to attack, because these nodes are exclusively available to the free world not China. TSMC needs to accelerate the diversification of more of its adv node mfg to relatively safer countries like the US, Japan and Western Europe, and thus reduces the interruption impact to the world economy and thus less incentives for China to attack.

 

[cliff]

Exploring this scenario... if TSMC is destroyed, the chip-making equipment industry will be severely weakened. They'll become financially unviable at their current spending levels, so massive layoffs and perhaps closures will follow soon after TSMC stops buying equipment and paying for support. The disaster won't just be the loss of TSMC's production, it'll be a disaster for the entire ecosystem, and all of the fabless chip companies that won't be able to get their chips manufactured. Apple will lose trillions in market capitalization, so will Nvidia - it'll be a financial disaster, and a cascading disaster for the much of the rest of the economy. I think the loss of TSMC will still be the end of the world as we know it, and Intel won't be a significant factor in stopping it.

How much does it cost to stamp out 16nm fabs and a nuclear facility in our 52nd state (Greenland)? They don't have unions there.

 

[blueone]

A true admirer of the "efficient" and "impressive" CCP China should simply move (back) to China to enjoy its full benefits....

I could be wrong, but Taiwan's silicon shield has always been a total myth to me.

The continued and further concentration of the bleeding edge advanced nodes mfg in Taiwan that powers today's global economy, IMHO, actually further induces CCP China's wild motivation to attack, because these nodes are exclusively available to the free world not China. TSMC needs to accelerate the diversification of more of its adv node mfg to relatively safer countries like the US, Japan and Western Europe, and thus reduces the interruption impact to the world economy and thus less incentives for China to attack.

I've heard this theory from several people I know in the industry, but I don't believe it. Even the biggest advocates of taking Taiwan in China knows that there's no way the US just stands by and let's China attack, so war ensues. China has an export-driven economy, and trade is halted, so the Chinese economy collapses and hundreds of millions are unemployed. It makes no sense no matter how you look at it.

A while back I hypothesized on this forum that if people really want something to worry about, it's China making a deal with Taiwan and Taiwan goes willingly. It's an understatement to say many here said "no way". Perhaps not. The heartening thing is that China's behavior with Hong Kong is getting nothing but worse, dismantling most freedoms in Hong Kong, so even I have to admit my scenario is trending less likely lately.

I think all indicators are pointing to this clumsy status quo stays in place for a long time, and that's probably because of the silicon shield.

 

[blueone]

How much does it cost to stamp out 16nm fabs and a nuclear facility in our 52nd state (Greenland)? They don't have unions there.

But Greenland only has 57,000 people total... how are you going to run the fabs? Mass migration? Robots?

 

[cliff]

Greenland will be our version of Siberia. We will send the illegals to Greenland, and keep them there until the fabs are completed with yield of 90% on an example design. Greenland is the perfect prison. Where else can they go? After the yield hits 90%, they can be exported to Cuba after we take them over. That should be enough incentive. It is much warmer in Cuba.

Apple and Nvidia can pay off some of the Danish bureaucrats. This seems straightforward to me. Mr. Blue, I am surprised that you didn't think of this first.

 

[soAsian]

A true admirer of the "efficient" and "impressive" CCP China should simply move (back) to China to enjoy its full benefits....

His comments/posts are typical of 'Little Pink.' It's weird that Chinese people living outside of China are constantly talking about how great China is. You often come across this type of post on the Internet and why not go back to China if China is so "efficient" and "impressive" make no sense to me.

 

[Barnsley]

His comments/posts are typical of 'Little Pink.' It's weird that Chinese people living outside of China are constantly talking about how great China is. You often come across this type of post on the Internet and why not go back to China if China is so "efficient" and "impressive" make no sense to me.

Not many Foreign Talents of the larger nations are particularly critical of the countries they are from.

Though having come from a country that was never said to be the best during my lifetime , maybe I can have some objectivity of the UK without fear of reprisals for anything I say.

With respect to China most of the folk I know here who are former Chinese Citizens seem very attached still.

 

[Daniel Nenni]

His comments/posts are typical of 'Little Pink.' It's weird that Chinese people living outside of China are constantly talking about how great China is. You often come across this type of post on the Internet and why not go back to China if China is so "efficient" and "impressive" make no sense to me.

The people who I know that live in China have a much different view. The CCP is getting stronger and more restrictive. As the younger generations rise there will be a revolution. I do believe military action against Taiwan, Japan, Philippines, South Korea, etc.... will accelerate the fall of the CCP.

The shutting down of Taiwan based semiconductors will start a world wide war, believe it.

 

[XYang2023]

His comments/posts are typical of 'Little Pink.' It's weird that Chinese people living outside of China are constantly talking about how great China is. You often come across this type of post on the Internet and why not go back to China if China is so "efficient" and "impressive" make no sense to me.

I don't admire anyone, and I certainly don't admire your comment or the way you think about things. I admire facts.

Last year was the warmest year in recorded history. In Tasmania, animal behavior is changing—adult penguins have stopped returning to their nests to care for their young. Researchers believe this is due to extreme warm weather, which has led to behavioral changes driven by self-preservation.

What China has achieved in electrification is impressive—a reduction in carbon emissions is a fact.

If you admire Taiwan so much that it gives you a biased view, then, by your logic, you should go live in Taiwan and defend it as you mean it. That would be better than defending Taiwan on Internet forums.

 

[XYang2023]

Tours cancelled as adult penguins fail to return to young at seaside town

A sudden drop in adult little penguin numbers at Bicheno on Tasmania's east coast has led to alarm for the fate of the colony as penguin chicks reliant on parents are seen dying.

www.abc.net.au