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Intel Reports Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2024 Financial Results

DaRAGingLunatic said:
Well, I guess the question is how many wafer starts per month can Intel do on 18A and 14A? What portion of those wafers are assigned to Intel, and how many wafers are left for everyone else, and are those wafers enough for a potential client to switch over and use?
Click to expand...
Customer 0 at Intel are its internal product like TSMC customer 0 was Apple, but that may change on N2 with the rise of HPC.
 
DaRAGingLunatic said:
Well, I guess the question is how many wafer starts per month can Intel do on 18A and 14A? What portion of those wafers are assigned to Intel, and how many wafers are left for everyone else, and are those wafers enough for a potential client to switch over and use?
Click to expand...
Intel has plenty of 18A capacity if anyone wants it. Panther lake we not have meaningful volume in 2025. Clearwater forest was pushed and had demand forecast lowered. Fab 52 is being slowly ramped until demand is there. Fab 62 is not being tooled out. Ohio is not ramping. Intel is not expecting meaningful 18A volume from external customers in 2026.
Panther lake and clearwater forest and any possible foundry work will not fill Fab 52 in 2026.

Lets see whether orders come in for 18A external customers. Its looking like 2027 and beyond.

We are a couple years from needing to consider 14A. I wouldn't worry about it.

Intel will go back to having internal and external options according to MJ. If Foundry delivers on cost fine, If not, ramp the external product.

Again Intel is lowering 18A capacity forecast and build out due to lower demand... there is no scenario where there are sold out at this point

We have the modeled WSPM numbers by technology they have been lowered significantly for 2026/2027 based on Intel report out.
 
The customer 0 can always be bitcoin miners companies. Smic 7nm 1st customer is Canaan which is a bitcoin miner company. Smic sticked with Canaan for more than 2 years until the yield got better.

Selling Intel fabs to TSMC is actually a very good idea, as it allows for much quicker technology migration.
The TSMC will no longer be pressured under the US DOC to relocate the supply chain, and it will also have one less competitor.
 
A question for the Intel CFO

What is the projected Operating Margin for 18A wafers in 2025 and 2026? Intel has a chart with the margins by wafer by technology by year that they are reviewing.

Is it positive or negative? Please answer

Then wait for the squirming and "well it depends" and "adjusted non-gaap theoretical operating margin if we hit our opex goals" comments
 
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