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Sometimes I wonder if there is a master plan here that is going on behind the scenes. Then I realize that Elon Musk and other tech titans are just human. The difference being that Elon thinks big and he thinks out loud. While most of us geniuses think before we speak Elon and Sam Altman speak first. Instead of saying "what if we can't make enough wafers" he states it as a fact to get the discussion amongst us professionals started. I guess this is how disruption happens? Has Elon even spoken with TSMC about this? That would have been my first call. Clearly he has already spoken to Samsung and Intel. Save the best for last?
There will be a Q&A at the TSMC event next week. Toss me some Qs and I will ask.
It's all very well to assume that Elon Musk is a genius and that this somehow gives him the right to open his mouth without much thought and brainstorm in public. But not if he's running a publicly listed company and these pronouncements are materially affecting stock prices (whether intentionally or not). There are rules here and we shouldn't be cutting Musk some slack just because he's a "genius". Off topic, DJT exhibits very similar behaviour and no one's accused him of being a genius (at least not that I recall).
Going further, I'm not convinced that Musk says such things with the primary intention started "among us professionals" ! The bloke's got an IPO to push later this year IIRC.
Agree with your comments in general; and you're right, Intel is not in a position of strength right now.
Without TeraFab, Intel gets 0% of SpaceX and Tesla's business, and leaves the door open for TSMC and Samsung to partner and potentially profit from TeraFab. (TSMC and Samsung have been really good at starving Intel of Foundry business.. )
Honestly, any involvement in TeraFab is better than zero involvement for Intel, as long as Intel is smart about how they engage and what they agree to. I hope LBT is looking at all viewpoints, and receiving contrarian feedback to whatever the Board is thinking to make the right decision here.
+ However, AI6 (2028) should start going into an Earth-based datacenter for "next gen Tesla Dojo"
+ Tesla autonomous driving is potentially much higher in just 2-3 years; they sell 2M vehicles currently, and need 4M AI4 chips as of 2025. By 2027 they (should be?) producing a large number of Cybercabs on top of their existing lineup, potential for 4M+ vehicles in 2027, and maybe 8M+ in 2030 if they really get FSD unsupervised working in at least North America and EU.
+ AI5 chip is rumored to be significantly larger than AI4 die-wise
+ TeraFab intends to bundle/fabricate memory for AI chips; with a rumor of "9X AI4" memory per AI5 chip - so something on the order of 128GB or 144GB for each of those AI5 chips. Maybe assume 256GB/288GB for AI6.
+ Tesla sells a non trivial amount of battery storage for infrastructure and home (~ 47 GWh in 2025), and of course vehicles. They could re-use AI chips or make new chips to support/control these products rather than using COTS.
+ With an Intel partnership, Intel could win back Tesla's infotainment business back from AMD -- i.e. 4-5 million Intel SoCs by 2030 could be made at this fab (up from ~ 2M Ryzen today).
+ Tesla's goal is ultimately 10 million robots per year, but I think your numbers are much closer to reality.
