That is one of the challenges Lip-Bu Tan will have to address, Elon's X posts. From what I am told there is not an agreement in place as of yet so this is just exploratory. I do not see any other option for Elon and his Terafab. I doubt TSMC will engage in this manner and Samsung seems to be left behind?
Next step would be for SpaceX to make a multi billion dollar investment in in Intel. Or maybe after a trillion dollar IPO the buy Intel outright?
I am also concerned about Elon's guestimates for the number of wafers his business units will require and when they will be required. Not to mention overall fab capacity.
Bottom line: I think this is a great thing for Intel and could be the Intel Foundry phoenix moment we are all looking for. Exciting times in the semiconductor industry, absolutely!
I tihnk I will wait to see what this really is before concluding. We have a mythical memory and logic fab with packaging. Then we have a twitter of a partnership between the mythical fab and the manufacturing company that loses 8B per year.
My current model is that this will have no positive effect on Intel financials for 2+ years. Lets see if anything is announced at earnings. It can't be a meaningful agreement yet or it would require SEC filing.
No matter what form the Intel–SpaceX–Tesla collaboration ultimately takes, it comes down to two things:
control and
business model.
Intel, as an IDM that also runs a foundry business for both internal and external customers, must retain full control over cost, pricing, scheduling, and capacity allocation for the products and clients served by this TeraFab.
SpaceX and Tesla, on the other hand, want full control of TeraFab as well. Otherwise, they would have no reason to pursue the TeraFab project in the first place.
This creates a major problem:
both sides want and need the full control of TeraFab.
So what exactly is the business model that CEO Li‑Bu Tan envisions for Intel over the next five or ten years?
Does he plan to eventually exit the external foundry business, or even spin out Intel’s manufacturing operations entirely? Will Intel move toward an IBM style model focused on semiconductor design, research, and licensing without the manufacturing component? Or is Intel considering something similar to the IBM–Rapidus arrangement, involving licensing, technology transfer, and joint development?
And if TeraFab is built with Intel’s help, will it eventually become a fierce competitor to Intel?
If Intel had sufficient financial strength, should it simply walk away from this deal instead?
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