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I think that this organizational setup makes the problem even worse.
The problem is that new nodes are becoming exponentially more expensive to develop AND require more processing time per wafer. Intel is trying to write off the same CapEx as TSMC is, but over 8 times fewer wafers.
Intel needed to be making the move to separate IFS and compete head-to-head with TSMC 10 years ago to avoid the current problem.
Of course, the math is simple while resolving the issue is clearly not.
you are 100% correct. The math is clear and has been clear since 2019. There is a reason the world went to a foundry model and then that the foundry model contracted to one successful advanced foundry. math
Excel shows this very simply
The answer is a) do not do IDM2.0 or b) get 15B in external foundry business. everything else is a rationalization about why math and profit doesnt matter. One CEO chose a, One CEO chose b. they both 100% agreed on the options. LBT has figure out how to deal with "what if neither happens?"
Side fun excel spreadsheet experiment "if you are not already making money and you are losing money while trying to grow, you cannot catch up to have a positive return.
Sometimes we forget Brian Kranzich Contribution of destroying the Company which would have made IFS lot easier and product wouldn't be in this mess in the first place cause there wouldn't have been any delays
Market share numbers are in. AMD made record gains in DC CPU share..... and is selling units at higher ASP than Intel. Intel lost almost 5% share in a quarter and had a shortage of units (all DC CPUs are made at Intel Fabs).
The stock price went up 4x because IFS may have significant material revenue in 2029
Market share numbers are in. AMD made record gains in DC CPU share..... and is selling units at higher ASP than Intel. Intel lost almost 5% share in a quarter and had a shortage of units (all DC CPUs are made at Intel Fabs).
The stock price went up 4x because IFS may have significant material revenue in 2029
Intel losing shares to AMD has been going on for a long time, question is has that slowed down in the last couple quarters. Agree IFS optimism is the main driver behind market surge
Intel losing shares to AMD has been going on for a long time, question is has that slowed down in the last couple quarters. Agree IFS optimism is the main driver behind market surge
DC CPU Share loss was higher than expected. Intel gained share in desktop but also lost share in Notebooks.
DC roadmaps can be very slow to change. As an example, Some intel people were predicting 2 years ago that AMD would get 50% of DC CPU revenue share in 2027 (looks like they were correct) . I think the shortage adds noise to this slow erosion (In either direction).
My point since last quarter has been that Intel is losing share in DC CPUs and saying it has a shortage at the same time.... and Q1 DC CPU units were down 5% YoY. it seems odd how this can happen.
On the positive side, I believe this will push Intel customers to Intel 3 and 18A which will simplify Intels roadmap.
DC CPU Share loss was higher than expected. Intel gained share in desktop but also lost share in Notebooks.
DC roadmaps can be very slow to change. As an example, Some intel people were predicting 2 years ago that AMD would get 50% of DC CPU revenue share in 2027 (looks like they were correct) . I think the shortage adds noise to this slow erosion (In either direction).
My point since last quarter has been that Intel is losing share in DC CPUs and saying it has a shortage at the same time.... and Q1 DC CPU units were down 5% YoY. it seems odd how this can happen.
On the positive side, I believe this will push Intel customers to Intel 3 and 18A which will simplify Intels roadmap.
you are 100% correct. The math is clear and has been clear since 2019. There is a reason the world went to a foundry model and then that the foundry model contracted to one successful advanced foundry. math
Excel shows this very simply
The answer is a) do not do IDM2.0 or b) get 15B in external foundry business. everything else is a rationalization about why math and profit doesnt matter. One CEO chose a, One CEO chose b. they both 100% agreed on the options. LBT has figure out how to deal with "what if neither happens?"
Side fun excel spreadsheet experiment "if you are not already making money and you are losing money while trying to grow, you cannot catch up to have a positive return.
LOL. Yea, it doesn't help a company at all to keep changing tracks. Each track change takes time and money to do, and the company is generally losing money throughout the transition.
Market share numbers are in. AMD made record gains in DC CPU share..... and is selling units at higher ASP than Intel. Intel lost almost 5% share in a quarter and had a shortage of units (all DC CPUs are made at Intel Fabs).
The stock price went up 4x because IFS may have significant material revenue in 2029
AMD's "Server First" design decisions are a good strategy IMO. DC is the highest margin market, and the fastest growing market.
For Intel to lose 5% share in a quarter when the market is growing like a weed is a very bad sign IMO.
If you look at things from a technical perspective, the picture for Intel doesn't look great for some time. AMD will release Venice before Intel releases Granite Rapids (Oak Stream) on 18A, but it will be in 2027 (6 or more months behind Venice), and will not include SMT. Intel will release Clearwater Forest with 288 cores. Venice D with 256 cores and 512 threads (and more memory bandwidth) seems like more than a match to me though. Generally speaking in server loads, AMD's SMT has achieved 1.3-1.4x performance per core. A little simple math shows that Venice D is going to be a tough competitor. It also has double (I think) the PCI bandwidth for integration with AI processors (specifically AMD's MI400 stuff).
What I am guessing is that the roadmap would indicate that AMD will retain its advantage with the next generation of DC processors.
Now, I am thinking that Intel's Nova Lake is going to be quite impressive; however, gaining market share in a market that is rapidly declining like desktop or in a commodity market like laptop is a hard living to make when you are paying for premium lithography nodes.
