If China takes TSM?

[Arthur Hanson]

First, it would be far cheaper than war for China to buy TSM if allowed, which I doubt the powers that be would allow. War/conflict would be a looser option for all. China would have to pay a hefty premium, but it would be far cheaper than the damage a war would cause. The cheapest option would be for China to develop alternative technologies. War is not even really an option with so many countries dependent on TSM and their manufacturing technologies. It is in the world's interest to get creative and come up with the best options. I am soliciting possible options and outcomes from the Semiwiki readers who are worldwide and might have some creative options and outcomes. War is the last refuge of the incompetent on all sides. What is needed is a creative solution that is win/win rather than lose/lose. Any thoughts and comments sought and welcome. Maybe this is the best place to come up with creative alternatives and solutions. I hope the collective intelligence of the SemiWiki community can come up with solutions or at least less destructive ones than war, that last refuge ot incompetent. If handled right, it could be a huge win for all and just as horrible wrong outcome if handled wrong. This challenge will become even far more important as we go into the quantum chips and level of AI most can't even imagine. I have no doubt the Semiwiki community can offer some real solutions if given careful thought. As Winston Cjhurchill said talk, talk, talk is better than war, war, war.

 

[Maximus]

First, it would be far cheaper than war for China to buy TSM if allowed, which I doubt the powers that be would allow. War/conflict would be a looser option for all. China would have to pay a hefty premium, but it would be far cheaper than the damage a war would cause. The cheapest option would be for China to develop alternative technologies. War is not even really an option with so many countries dependent on TSM and their manufacturing technologies. It is in the world's interest to get creative and come up with the best options. I am soliciting possible options and outcomes from the Semiwiki readers who are worldwide and might have some creative options and outcomes. War is the last refuge of the incompetent on all sides. What is needed is a creative solution that is win/win rather than lose/lose. Any thoughts and comments sought and welcome. Maybe this is the best place to come up with creative alternatives and solutions. I hope the collective intelligence of the SemiWiki community can come up with solutions or at least less destructive ones than war, that last refuge ot incompetent. If handled right, it could be a huge win for all and just as horrible wrong outcome if handled wrong.

In 2015, former Tsinghua Unigroup chairman Zhao Weiguo publicly expressed interest in acquiring a 25% stake in TSMC and even proposed a merger with MediaTek.

A decade later, he received a suspended death sentence in a high-profile corruption and embezzlement case.

Former chairman of China's chipmaking champion gets suspended death sentence in corruption and embezzlement case

Zhao Weiguo stepped down as chairman in 2022 after being placed under investigation.

www.tomshardware.com

 

[benb]

This is an interesting concept, following the rule of law. It should be suggested to the CCP. You never know.

Beside the fact Taiwan would never hand over TSMC to CCP, nor the USA, nor Korea.

It is nevertheless time to think about lifting the embargo on basic EUV so SMIC and other China mainland organizations can advance to N3 (the last EUV node). US policy for generations has been to maintain an “offset” of about 2.5 generations. N7 to N3 is approximately 2.5 G. Lifting the embargo may be part of the discussions going on around the tariffs. I wouldn’t be surprised if 0.55 EUV remains embargoed though.

Lifting the embargo would strand and damage China’s R&D into replacing ASML since it would be easier to just buy from ASML. So it isn’t a “soft on China” policy. The way to prevent China from developing their domestic equipment is to sell it to them. Just as the way China prevents the US from developing rare earths production is to sell it to us.

 

[Xebec]

This is an interesting concept, following the rule of law. It should be suggested to the CCP. You never know.

Beside the fact Taiwan would never hand over TSMC to CCP, nor the USA, nor Korea.

It is nevertheless time to think about lifting the embargo on basic EUV so SMIC and other China mainland organizations can advance to N3 (the last EUV node). US policy for generations has been to maintain an “offset” of about 2.5 generations. N7 to N3 is approximately 2.5 G. Lifting the embargo may be part of the discussions going on around the tariffs. I wouldn’t be surprised if 0.55 EUV remains embargoed though.

Lifting the embargo would strand and damage China’s R&D into replacing ASML since it would be easier to just buy from ASML. So it isn’t a “soft on China” policy. The way to prevent China from developing their domestic equipment is to sell it to them.

FWIW, TSMC will be making N2 and A14 nodes without High NA.

TSMC Is Reportedly Skipping High-NA EUV For The A14 (1.4nm) Process; Prioritizing Cost-Efficiency Over Performance

It seems like the Taiwan giant won't be jumping onto the High-NA EUV bandwagon anytime soon. It has been revealed that the firm will skip the lithography for the A14 process. TSMC Now Gets Behind The Likes of Intel Foundry When It Comes To High-NA EUV Adoption, Will Rely On Older Technologies...

semiwiki.com

(though N2 to A14 is not a 'full node', despite what TSMC marketing says. 23% logic density increase)

 

[Maximus]

It is nevertheless time to think about lifting the embargo on basic EUV so SMIC and other China mainland organizations can advance to N3 (the last EUV node). US policy for generations has been to maintain an “offset” of about 2.5 generations. N7 to N3 is approximately 2.5 G. Lifting the embargo may be part of the discussions going on around the tariffs. I wouldn’t be surprised if 0.55 EUV remains embargoed though.

Lifting the embargo would strand and damage China’s R&D into replacing ASML since it would be easier to just buy from ASML. So it isn’t a “soft on China” policy. The way to prevent China from developing their domestic equipment is to sell it to them. Just as the way China prevents the US from developing rare earths production is to sell it to us.

The idea that "making products accessible can hinder a country's own R&D" only holds true prior to an embargo. Once an embargo is in place, research and development are elevated to a matter of national security, where cost becomes a secondary concern. Even if the embargo is later lifted, the Chinese government is likely to continue pursuing the development of its own EUV technology—since the risk of future restrictions always looms.

 

[Jert]

First, it would be far cheaper than war for China to buy TSM if allowed, which I doubt the powers that be would allow. War/conflict would be a looser option for all. China would have to pay a hefty premium, but it would be far cheaper than the damage a war would cause. The cheapest option would be for China to develop alternative technologies. War is not even really an option with so many countries dependent on TSM and their manufacturing technologies. It is in the world's interest to get creative and come up with the best options. I am soliciting possible options and outcomes from the Semiwiki readers who are worldwide and might have some creative options and outcomes. War is the last refuge of the incompetent on all sides. What is needed is a creative solution that is win/win rather than lose/lose. Any thoughts and comments sought and welcome. Maybe this is the best place to come up with creative alternatives and solutions. I hope the collective intelligence of the SemiWiki community can come up with solutions or at least less destructive ones than war, that last refuge ot incompetent. If handled right, it could be a huge win for all and just as horrible wrong outcome if handled wrong. This challenge will become even far more important as we go into the quantum chips and level of AI most can't even imagine. I have no doubt the Semiwiki community can offer some real solutions if given careful thought. As Winston Cjhurchill said talk, talk, talk is better than war, war, war.

Mr. Hanson you had it all backwards.

China is not going after Taiwan to get TSMC. Xi couldn't care less about TSMC. TSMC or semiconductor just happens to be Taiwan's main industrial strength and thus being constantly talked about in the media.

Xi wants to conquer Taiwan for 2 main objectives: one is to solidify and strengthen CCP's legitimacy of ruling China by killing off the last voice of objection or resistance (Taiwan); Two is to forever etch his name and greatness into the Chinese history book (or even the world's book) that him and him alone, after many generations of CCP leaders lots of talking but no action, was able to complete the monumental achievement.

If TSMC, or Taiwan, or even world economy get to be destroyed as collateral damages, as long as CCP lives and continues in power, he couldn't care less.

 

[soAsian]

This is an interesting concept, following the rule of law. It should be suggested to the CCP. You never know.

Beside the fact Taiwan would never hand over TSMC to CCP, nor the USA, nor Korea.

It is nevertheless time to think about lifting the embargo on basic EUV so SMIC and other China mainland organizations can advance to N3 (the last EUV node). US policy for generations has been to maintain an “offset” of about 2.5 generations. N7 to N3 is approximately 2.5 G. Lifting the embargo may be part of the discussions going on around the tariffs. I wouldn’t be surprised if 0.55 EUV remains embargoed though.

Lifting the embargo would strand and damage China’s R&D into replacing ASML since it would be easier to just buy from ASML. So it isn’t a “soft on China” policy. The way to prevent China from developing their domestic equipment is to sell it to them. Just as the way China prevents the US from developing rare earths production is to sell it to us.

The problem I see with lifting the embargo on EUV is that once China masters the technology, they can flood the market with cheaper prices that are good enough. We've already seen this with smartphones, EV cars, solar panels, etc. The Chinese government will also give out subsidies to help corner key industries.

as a consumer, i'm not complaining regarding good enough cheap Chinese goods but it will kill off US companies or other companies around the world for that matter.

 

[ai268]

Do you guys believe/see that two birds quarrel each other? Do not waste your time to contemplate the win-win solutions. There is NONE. Do you wanna pass the promotion to your incompetent colleagues? It's just animal nature.