I think Substrate is a $1 Billion Fraud: Part 1

[hist78]

Every dollar lost becomes tuition for the most expensive MBA program in the world, the one where the classroom is the market and the professors are your failures.

I like it too, after all it’s not my money. Those investors are essentially funding my wonderful learning experience.

 

[Xebec]

After all, it would be strange if a company CEO or even the US President invited a journalist for an interview but simultaneously required the journalist to sign an NDA that restricts what he/she can report.

Unfortunately, this type of situation is surprisingly common: https://www.techspot.com/news/107962-nvidia-rtx-5060-launch-erosion-independent-gpu-reviews.html

Reviewers are required to sign NDAs for NVidia GPUs (normal), but they're also given requirements on how the reviews should be conducted. For example, reviewers were told they were not allowed to compare the 50 series vs the previous gen 40 series... to avoid showing how small performance gains were this generation.

..

Nvidia also banned a few reviewers (later reversed after public outcry) for not posting positive reviews/strictly following this "guidance" about their products: www.reddit.com/r/hardware/comments/kbylt3/nvidia_apologizes_reverses_decision_to_ban

You're very right to point out the issues here; Substrate + Semianalysis feels a bit like this conflict.

 

[count]

It's so interesting.

>But here's what most people don't understand about failure at this scale: it teaches you things success never could. Every burned bridge becomes a lesson in structural engineering. Every wrong turn becomes a data point. Every dollar lost becomes tuition for the most expensive MBA program in the world, the one where the classroom is the market and the professors are your failures.
Source: https://www.longjourney.vc/news/cyans-substrate-tattoo

But, Billionaire Peter Thiel: ‘Failure is massively overrated’
PayPal co-founder and billionaire investor Peter Thiel has a different opinion. “I think failure is massively overrated,” he tells author Tim Ferriss in ″Tools of Titans.″ “I think people actually do not learn very much from failure.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/25/paypal-billionaire-peter-thiel-failure-is-massively-overrated.html

I'd contend that Intel knows a thing or two about failure.

Kidding aside there is a massive target on the back of ASML right now, and if there was a quick path to 2nm without EUV China would be there already.

 

[lefty]

The Substrate story is becoming even more interesting. Below is an article from one of the Substrate's investors, a venture capital firm called Long Journey:


"And you know what? That's exactly why it might work. Because James Proud has something ASML's executives don't have, something TSMC's board doesn't have: the bone-deep knowledge of what it's like to fail, to rebuild, and to come back with a chip on your shoulder the size of Texas.

He's not trying to build a better mousetrap. He's trying to build the mousetrap factory that saves Western civilization. The stakes couldn't be higher, and the founder couldn't be more battle-tested."

Talking about the tattoo:

"Well, ultimately it's a symbol. A symbol of belief in James Proud and his team. He was forged in fire and came out unbroken."

Source: https://www.longjourney.vc/news/cyans-substrate-tattoo

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It beggers belief that people this naive are left in charge of millions of venture capital funds

 

[EganVector]

Are Adam Neumann and Elizabeth Holmes on the board of directors for Substrate?

 

[hist78]

Unfortunately, this type of situation is surprisingly common: https://www.techspot.com/news/107962-nvidia-rtx-5060-launch-erosion-independent-gpu-reviews.html

Reviewers are required to sign NDAs for NVidia GPUs (normal), but they're also given requirements on how the reviews should be conducted. For example, reviewers were told they were not allowed to compare the 50 series vs the previous gen 40 series... to avoid showing how small performance gains were this generation.

..

Nvidia also banned a few reviewers (later reversed after public outcry) for not posting positive reviews/strictly following this "guidance" about their products: www.reddit.com/r/hardware/comments/kbylt3/nvidia_apologizes_reverses_decision_to_ban

You're very right to point out the issues here; Substrate + Semianalysis feels a bit like this conflict.

It’s common for companies or individuals to try to influence the tone and direction of reporting. But ultimately, the authors must put integrity above everything else.

Take the SemiAnalysis' Substrate report as an example. On one hand, they claim authority because they have access to Substrate’s internal information. On the other hand, they also can disclaim responsibility for any inaccuracies by pointing to NDAs signed by some members of the author team.

In the same report, they wrote:

“Note we have worked with Substrate since as far back as 2022, but the technical analysis here was by team members who did not have access to that NDA information.”

Does this imply that Substrate has been paying SemiAnalysis for services since 2022? If so, that introduces a clear business relationship that readers deserve to understand up front.

I don’t expect the rigor of a PhD dissertation from this type of industry report, but at least we should know whether the analysis is an objective technical evaluation or something closer to marketing material.