How hard will materials shortages hit the semi/battery industry?

[Arthur Hanson]

Any thoughts on this would be appreciated. How much substitution is possible? Why would suppliers stop shipments?

 

[count]

On batteries and EVs:
-In the short term, LFP batteries are the way forward. No nickel or cobalt required. There are shortages of other materials that go into these, like copper and aluminum, but they are less critical.
-There is some movement to "thick" electrodes, which could cut copper and aluminum down substantially. This shift could happen in the medium term.
-I don't expect solid state to make an impact in the near term.
-Lithium supply chain needs to catch up. Fortunately there is plenty of supply in friendly jurisdictions.
-Bigger challenge is probably rare earth metals, which are used in EV motors. Inductive motors could alleviate this.

I think in the short term, the cure for supply shortages is going to be a recession and associated demand destruction. I think recession will probably start next quarter and will be officially declared by summer. I think it's going to be a U-shaped recession lasting 18-36 months. Prepare yourselves now.

 

[Paul2]

Nickel for batteries is not that responsive for input cost. It's the nanopowders used for cathode slurry making which are expensive.

Cathode chemicals manufacturing is highly cartelised, both NCM, and LFP, except there is a bit more competition in LFP, and this is what keep prices for LFP low.