I think Pat Gelsinger (PG) has handled the AI trend poorly (in chronological order to my best knowledge):
1. PVC Designed for HPC and Supported oneAPI
Ponte Vecchio (PVC) was designed for high-performance computing (HPC) and supported Intel's oneAPI framework.
- 2. Reorganization of AXG and Shift in Focus
Intel reorganized its Accelerated Computing Systems and Graphics Group (AXG), led by Raja Koduri, merging it into the Data Center and AI Group (DCAI) under Sandra Rivera. This restructuring led to the cancellation of Rialto Bridge, a data center GPU project, and a shift in focus toward Gaudi accelerators. However, according to PG, Gaudi lacks programming flexibility, making it less suitable for AI training. Furthermore, Gaudi relies on its own API and does not support oneAPI. At an Intel tech event, Sandra Rivera also criticized NVIDIA GPUs for being power-hungry. This reorganization was justified as an effort to improve "organizational efficiency," but it coincided with the rapid rise of generative AI technologies, such as ChatGPT.
- 3. Leadership Changes
Sandra Rivera later transitioned to lead Intel's Altera FPGA business. Intel brought in Justin Hotard, with PG stating that Justin would help drive "GPU" sales.
- 4. Falcon Shores Announcement
Intel announced plans to merge its GPU and Gaudi architectures into a unified product called Falcon Shores, marking yet another strategic shift.
- 5. Warnings from the Board and Establishment of an Acceleration Office
Reports revealed that Intel's Board of Directors had warned PG years ago about the critical importance of generative AI and the competitive threat posed by NVIDIA GPUs. PG responded by establishing an "acceleration office," led by a person reassigned from India for the role. However, this individual was later reassigned again, reflecting a lack of continuity.
- 6. Earnings and Focus on AI Inferencing
Following disappointing earnings, PG announced that Intel would focus more on AI inferencing alongside x86 architectures. However, this announcement lacked clarity, leading to skepticism among analysts about Intel's plans for Falcon Shores and its overall AI roadmap.
- 7. Confirmation of Falcon Shores Timeline
Despite earlier uncertainty, it was later confirmed that Falcon Shores remains on track for a 2025 release, with Jaguar Shores planned to follow.
- 8. Departure of Gaudi Founders
The founders of the Gaudi architecture left Intel.
- 9. Speculation and Confirmation on Arc Desktop GPUs
PG recently mentioned "portfolio optimization," sparking speculation that Intel might cancel its Arc desktop GPU lineup. However, it was later confirmed that Intel plans to release follow-up desktop GPUs.
Under PG's leadership, Intel's AI strategy has appeared inconsistent and reactive. While PG has invested significant time in foundry and CHIPS Act, Intel has fallen behind key competitors like NVIDIA and AMD in the generative AI space. Despite PG's acknowledgment of Intel's missed opportunity in the mobile market under prior leadership, he seemed to be repeating history by failing to effectively capitalize on the generative AI trend. Clear, decisive action and consistent follow-through are needed if Intel hopes to compete with industry leaders such as NVIDIA.
Money wasted under PG:
1. Significant Hiring Followed by Layoffs
Intel spent heavily on hiring only to lay off many employees few years after, reflecting poor workforce planning.
- 2. Failed Tower Semiconductor Acquisition
The attempted acquisition of Tower Semiconductor felt apart, resulting in wasted resources and time and also penalties.
- 3. Discontinued Initiatives
Programs like the RISC-V initiative were started but later discontinued, resulting in sunk costs with no long-term benefit.
- 4. Paused Fab Construction in Israel and Germany
Intel paused its fab construction projects in Israel and Germany, causing wasted investments in planning and initial development.
- 5. Overestimating PC Demand During COVID
Intel anticipated significant PC growth during the COVID-19 pandemic but faced major write-downs recently.
- 6. Failed investments such as Stability AI
I guess there are more to the list.
- Key Point:
The amount of money wasted by Intel under PG appears to rival the scale of rewards expected from the CHIPS Act. Instead of misallocated resources, these funds could have been used to:
1. Fund Rialto Bridge Development:
Continuing the development of their data center GPU could have provided a competitive edge in the generative AI space.
2. Seed Strategic Investments:
Intel could have made early investments in promising AI companies, such as Anthropic, to stay relevant in the AI ecosystem.
