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Foundry Monopoly in leading-edge Manufacturing: is it a real problem?

Natural monopolies are only problematic if they use their sole source of supply to maximize profits and revenues. If that happens, governments will typically step in to either control pricing (utilities), or reduce barriers to entry for competitors (AMD vs Intel). Natural monopolies have a tendency to misallocate investments vs what the market actually wants if they do get caught up in revenue maximization. Natural monopolies are also prone to self-destruction due to failure failure to adapt to market substitutes and changing market conditions.
Well said.
Intel is an example of a natural monopoly, I always thought they were a fab with CPU business.
If Intel had been broken up into a fab and a design house 20-30 years ago, the fab would have had a significant advantage.
Now that the fab technology has fallen behind, it's clear that the design house is not strong as everyone thought.
 
55-60% is a huge profit margin.
...............

Not sure, it depends on the value proposition to its leading customers. NVIDEA has a current gross margin of 70-75% and its CEO has publicly supported the price increases of TSMC for its leading edge wafers. Apple also has always been willing to fund the ramping of TSMC's latest nodes. Google (gross margin Alphabet 58%) has transitioned to TSMC now also completely and is probably able to pay these margins as well. Broadcom has gross margin of some 64%.

I know that that another monopolist (in litho), ASML, aims for gross margin of close to 60% as well. Unfortunately for them, ASML's largest (low NA-EUV) customer, TSMC, doesn't like the sticker price of the new high-NA EUV tools (that Intel Foundry bought already some 6 units of without even knowing when it will use them). So here it seems that ASML needs to listen to their main customer.....
 
Well said.
Intel is an example of a natural monopoly, I always thought they were a fab with CPU business.
If Intel had been broken up into a fab and a design house 20-30 years ago, the fab would have had a significant advantage.
Now that the fab technology has fallen behind, it's clear that the design house is not strong as everyone thought.
Yeah their design is not in a good state cause much of their talent is somewhere else or has retired.
They saw the need to call back Glenn Hilton from retirement.
 
I found these substack articles interesting as well.

Copy Exact! is what holds Intel back while "dual-wielding" ie Continuous Improvement is what enables TSMC to win.

Exactly as Edwards Deming predicted long ago. Point 9: “Break down barriers between departments. People in research, design, sales and production must work as a team, to foresee problems of production and in use that may be encountered with product or service”

I also found it interesting how TSMC top leaders come from Taiwan universities. There is probably something special about that too. Never underestimate the power of the alumni network.
 
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Is copy exactly really the reason cause I am doubtful regarding this.

The real reason imo are trying to do too many things,Neglecting manufacturing not giving it enough funding during Kranzich/Swan era and the design and foundry dependence of design and product.
 
Competitive pricing is one thing, innovation is another. Intel brought us HKMG, FinFETs, BSPD, amongst many other technology firsts that TSMC now uses. Samsung Foundry not so much, just pricing.

Regarding the continuous "battle" between innovation and trusted manufacturing, I find it very interesting how this battle is currently ongoing between high-NA and multi-patterning-low-NA EUV adoption/insertion in the coming nodes. I get the impression that TSMC always tries to put trusted manufacturing first as they are simply so customer-oriented, especially now during 2025-2030, where this whole AI transition depends on TSMC's trusted execution for NVIDIA, AMD, Google, Apple and some other customers. TSMC must feel an enormous responsibility and opportunity to execute well supporting this AI transition. Perhaps Intel was always a bit too-much R&D process innovation oriented where the R&D engineers had more cloud (Copy Exact!) versus the Fab engineers.

And this battle is ongoing regarding innovation and trusted manufacturing: there seems to be a strong lobby going on by Intel, IBM and ASML for (innovative tool) high-NA insertion at the 14A / A14 nodes, where TSMC seems to insist at staying at (multi-patterning) low-NA for 14A:

https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-i...igh-na-euv-for-1-4nm-class-process-technology
When asked whether A14 heavily relies on multi-patterning, Zhang responded that he could not comment on specifics, but said that TSMC's technology team had found a way to produce chips on a 1.4nm node without using High-NA EUV tools that provide an 8nm resolution compared to a 13.5nm resolution of Low-NA EUV systems.

"This is a great innovation from our technology team," said Zhang. "As long as they continue to find a way, obviously, we do not have to use High-NA EUV. Eventually, we will use it at some point. It is just so we need to find a right interception point, provide the maximum benefit, maximum return on investment."

It is noteworthy that TSMC's A14 will be succeeded by A14 with SPR backside power delivery in 2029, and it does not appear that the foundry will require High-NA EUV tools for this iteration either. To that end, it looks like, unlike Intel, which is set to start using next-generation EUV lithography machines with its 14A manufacturing technology to reduce the number of EUV exposures (read: multipatterning) and process steps in 2027 – 2028, TSMC has no plans to use High-NA EUV for mass production until at least 2030, or perhaps even later.

Stimulated by this wonderful analysis of SPIE-2025 (https://semianalysis.com/2025/04/14/spie2025/) and the mentioning of the IBM-contribution by Luciana Meli, I just listened to her talk:
https://www.spiedigitallibrary.org/...erconnect-scaling-and/10.1117/12.3056559.full

ASML appears to be in the middle of this Intel-TSMC battle. ASML invested tremendously in high-NA EUV but their most important EUV-customer presently, TSMC, seems not (publicly) planning HVM with high-NA till perhaps 2030. And Intel needs/wants more support in the high-NA eco-system for innovation on resists and lobbying ASML for larger mask-sizes (to increase productivity):
https://bits-chips.com/article/asml-throws-weight-behind-bigger-euv-masks/

I have the impression that for now the monopolist foundry, TSMC, is winning this innovation-vs-trusted manufacturing battle, as Intel has also indicated that its 14A process will have (multi-patterning) low-NA as an option for its foundry process:
https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-com...echnique-has-identical-yield-and-design-rules

Additionally, Intel’s claim that both production flows offer the same yields signals that there won’t be severe time-to-market repercussions if High-NA EUV development hits a snag, or if Intel chooses not to deploy it due to economics. Employing multi-patterning often reduces yields, but Intel's claim of yield parity speaks to the advances of modern multipatterning, particularly in the field of overlay technology.


Innovation versus trusted-manufacturing, the battle continuous.....
 
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