Intel could re-enter the memory business if it really wanted to. Compared with 18A, DRAM is arguably much less complex from an execution standpoint—and it could potentially bring 70%+ margins while putting idle fabs to use.
DRAM would require substantially new process development and it is also an expensive process. In their recent collaboration with SAIMEMORY, they didn't provide the DRAM but the packaging technology.
Compared with 18A, this is almost straightforward. The bigger challenge is that Lip-Bu Tan may not be deeply familiar with the process side of memory. Hopefully, someone like Lee from SK could provide some guidance and help close that gap.
Oh it's hardly a piece of cake. Transistor structure is all different. High aspect ratio capacitor. You can only get good margins from reuse of modules.
DRAM is structurally simpler but process-specialized, while logic is architecturally complex + integration-heavy. [semiconductorx.com]
2) Process complexity comparison
Intel 18A (cutting-edge logic)
Key reality: Leading DRAM (1α → 1γ) Key reality: Bottom line on complexity Your intuition is partly right:
3) Capex and cost comparison
Fab construction Logic fabs are generally more capital-intensive due to:
Wafer cost Logic wafers are more expensive due to:
Cost structure difference
4) Process steps & flow differences
5) Talent & know-how barrier DRAM is not easily “re-enterable” because:
6) Strategic conclusion
Where reality is tougher
Final takeaway In simple terms:
www.trendforce.com
We also shouldn’t underestimate the potential acceleration they could get from the significant capital available now. In previous years, profitability was limited, and the business wasn’t particularly attractive to top graduates. With stronger financial backing and renewed momentum, that dynamic could change quite quickly.[News] Micron Reportedly Acknowledges China’s Memory Progress While Noting Output Remains Largely Domestic
Amid market chatter that big tech firms are reportedly evaluating Chinese memory products, Micron, during its earnings call, acknowledged the country’...
Amid market chatter that big tech firms are reportedly evaluating Chinese memory products, Micron, during its earnings call, acknowledged the country’s progress in memory development. South China Morning Post, citing Micron Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana, reports that both CXMT and YMTC have steadily improved their capabilities and expanded market share over time.
The remarks, as per the report, underscore a degree of global validation for China’s memory sector at a time when surging AI infrastructure investment is reshaping an industry historically marked by cyclical booms and downturns.
However, Sadana also noted that the “overwhelming majority” of their output remains sold domestically in China, the report suggests.
South China Morning Post points out that while Chinese suppliers still lag behind Micron and its Korean peers in HBM, Micron executives highlighted tightening supply conditions in non-HBM segments, suggesting potential upside for China’s major DRAM maker, whose product mix remains concentrated in mainstream LPDDR and DDR DRAM.
Meanwhile, South Korea is also closely watching the development. A separate report from Kyunghyang Shinmun, citing Professor Lee Jong-hwan of Sangmyung University, estimates the technology gap between Korea and China at around 2–3 years in general-purpose DRAM and NAND, and over five years in HBM, though the gap is gradually narrowing.
