Ole Hoejlund
New member
I see a lot of bold claims about future supply and demand growth in the DRAM/HBM market, including confident predictions about when supply will catch up with demand. I understand why people are trying to answer that question, I would very much like to know the answer myself. But most public analysis I come across, whether on Seeking Alpha or elsewhere, seems to be guesswork built on a few isolated facts.
Are there any serious analyses that actually do the hard work on the supply side: bit-supply modelling based on fab-by-fab capacity, expansion plans, HBM versus conventional DRAM allocation, node progression, yields, equipment constraints, packaging constraints, and so on?
And are there similarly thorough demand-side analyses that model AI accelerator growth, server memory content, HBM stack requirements, conventional DRAM demand, drone demand, and the likely elasticity or substitution effects?
My current gut feeling is that most analysts are underestimating demand growth and overestimating how quickly bit supply can expand, especially once HBM mix, yield, advanced packaging, node-transition complexity and equipment constraints are taken seriously. I would not be surprised if we do not see anything resembling real balance before 2029 at the earliest.
But that is only a hunch, so I would be very interested in either:
- links to genuinely rigorous work on this
- quick takes on the supply-demand balance from this forum of experts with high quality gut feelings
Are there any serious analyses that actually do the hard work on the supply side: bit-supply modelling based on fab-by-fab capacity, expansion plans, HBM versus conventional DRAM allocation, node progression, yields, equipment constraints, packaging constraints, and so on?
And are there similarly thorough demand-side analyses that model AI accelerator growth, server memory content, HBM stack requirements, conventional DRAM demand, drone demand, and the likely elasticity or substitution effects?
My current gut feeling is that most analysts are underestimating demand growth and overestimating how quickly bit supply can expand, especially once HBM mix, yield, advanced packaging, node-transition complexity and equipment constraints are taken seriously. I would not be surprised if we do not see anything resembling real balance before 2029 at the earliest.
But that is only a hunch, so I would be very interested in either:
- links to genuinely rigorous work on this
- quick takes on the supply-demand balance from this forum of experts with high quality gut feelings