Chinese DDR5 RAM: Is This the Solution to Crazy Memory Prices?

[Fred Chen]

CXMT is providing decent DDR5, although the notorious price drop from some weeks ago is now no longer the case.


The DDR5 nightmare hasn't eased yet, but today we're checking out an option that might be viable for anyone who needs to get their hands on some memory.

As we're all painfully aware by now, the cost of DDR memory shot up rapidly late last year. This hit consumer-grade DDR5 especially hard, with prices tripling in just a few short months. The trigger behind this surge was OpenAI, which through its AI-powered ambitions struck deals with Samsung and SK hynix to buy up a significant portion of their capacity for producing HBM, or high-bandwidth memory.

https://www.techspot.com/review/3089-ddr5-made-in-china/

 

[tonyget]

Not before 2030 I would say. CXMT's production capacity at the moment is nowhere near that of Samsung or SK Hynix，thus it wouldn't disturb the market

 

[Fred Chen]

Not before 2030 I would say. CXMT's production capacity at the moment is nowhere near that of Samsung or SK Hynix，thus it wouldn't disturb the market

Indeed, the quickly rising prices indicate that their supply is still low.

 

[bilau]

Not before 2030 I would say. CXMT's production capacity at the moment is nowhere near that of Samsung or SK Hynix，thus it wouldn't disturb the market

They don't have to have similar capacity to have impact, all they need is enough capacity to cover the un-met demand.

They totally destroyed the (DDR4) market two, three years ago which flushed all of the big three out of DDR4.

But I think they are also diverting a lot of bits to build HBM for local GPUs.

 

[siliconimist]

It's a good point @bilau , you don't have to have a very significant portion of a market to crash it.

 

[count]

Not before 2030 I would say. CXMT's production capacity at the moment is nowhere near that of Samsung or SK Hynix，thus it wouldn't disturb the market

Capacity that takes 4-5 years to build in most of the world can likely be built in 2 years in China. This is what I have seen.

 

[bilau]

[China Semiconductors] CXMT Capacity Plateaued Under U.S. Curbs, Impact Contained by PC Demand and HBM Push

ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), the DRAM manufacturer spearheading China’s indigenous memory drive, appears to have reached a production ceiling in the fourth quarter of last year, with capacity growth now facing structural constraints. While Beijing has accelerated efforts to localize...

economy.ac

"According to market research firm Omdia on Feb. 12, CXMT’s average monthly wafer output has reached approximately 240,000 units, marking its peak capacity level. The company’s DRAM production capacity currently stands at roughly half that of SK Hynix, the world’s second-largest player, and slightly over one-third of Samsung Electronics. On an annual basis last year, Samsung Electronics’ DRAM capacity totaled about 7.6 million wafers, compared with 5.97 million for SK Hynix and 3.6 million for Micron."

If the article's wafer start numbers are correct, then CXMT isn't that much behind Micron in terms of wafer capacity.

Of course, Micron is at 1C and CXMT seemingly is still at 1Y, so a Micron wafer will yield quite some more bits.

 

[Fred Chen]

[China Semiconductors] CXMT Capacity Plateaued Under U.S. Curbs, Impact Contained by PC Demand and HBM Push

ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), the DRAM manufacturer spearheading China’s indigenous memory drive, appears to have reached a production ceiling in the fourth quarter of last year, with capacity growth now facing structural constraints. While Beijing has accelerated efforts to localize...

economy.ac

"According to market research firm Omdia on Feb. 12, CXMT’s average monthly wafer output has reached approximately 240,000 units, marking its peak capacity level. The company’s DRAM production capacity currently stands at roughly half that of SK Hynix, the world’s second-largest player, and slightly over one-third of Samsung Electronics. On an annual basis last year, Samsung Electronics’ DRAM capacity totaled about 7.6 million wafers, compared with 5.97 million for SK Hynix and 3.6 million for Micron."

If the article's wafer start numbers are correct, then CXMT isn't that much behind Micron in terms of wafer capacity.

Of course, Micron is at 1C and CXMT seemingly is still at 1Y, so a Micron wafer will yield quite some more bits.

CXMT DDR4 had been at 1x, DDR5 started at 1z. 1c (gamma) is starting to trickle out, but it's still a heavy multipatterning burden (word line pitch < 33 nm).