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Any thoughts and comments on this would be appreciated. I hope it doesn't happen, but I think China may get a nasty surprise, like Russia in Ukraine. Taiwan is a very smart, high technological country with strong supporters like the US, Australia, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand and others. Also, if the foundries are damaged, there will be no access to the spare equipment and parts needed and many key people may flee.
It would appear that Putin and Xi have caught the same place-in-history virus. I've been wondering if I should begin to divest a bit from Apple, since their huge valuation might take a big hit if TSMC were knocked offline for months after the invasion, or the US decided to delicense TSMC as a Chinese company.
It would appear that Putin and Xi have caught the same place-in-history virus. I've been wondering if I should begin to divest a bit from Apple, since their huge valuation might take a big hit if TSMC were knocked offline for months after the invasion, or the US decided to delicense TSMC as a Chinese company.
If Xi does take military action (IMO, very unlikely), I think TSMC or the semiconductor industry as whole is probably a much smaller problem to worry about in the long list of crisis and problems.
If Xi does take military action (IMO, very unlikely), I think TSMC or the semiconductor industry as whole is probably a much smaller problem to worry about in the long list of crisis and problems.
Xi wouldn't have to take military action for Apple to get hurt. If China absorbed Taiwan peacefully, I think there's a very high probability that the US would de-license TSMC the same way it has SMIC.
You'd be surprised about what a number of yes-men can do to cloud the decision making of (usually) competent leaders. Other guy Putin is clearly in damage control mode right now after essentially being lied to by yes-men (he also was crazy about isolating himself so there's that but like Xi has pushed his zero-Covid strat that is destroying the Chinese economy and does not look to be letting up soon).
I agree with you that the semi industry would be a smaller problem, as has not been integrated as heavily into the world as other things like oil/electricity - but its still a key issue, becoming more important as each day passes and more people adopt better technology. 10 years ago, it wouldn't have been as big a deal at all, but now I feel we are in an intermediary stage where it is sorta a big deal but not like a dealbreaker.
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