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Can China get to 3nm?

I am not fully sure on what you are indicating in respect to nanoimprint lithography. In particular when the information provided in the link does not include key performance metrics such as throughput, defect rate, and template durability.
This is something I had just found yesterday. I also do not have that information. But it is intriguing that they address 12"wafers and 10nm resolution (better than the 2nm EUV systems' 13 nm resolution). But the overlay, uniformity and defectivity are all important for sure.
It's clear that nanoimprint technology has significant potential in assisting with the manufacturing of photonic devices, microfluidics, and flexible electronics, and perhaps NAND, and even DRAM memory. There is however limited evidence that it is capable of meeting the demands for high density logic given its high level of defectivity, overlay, and template durability relative to Extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV).

Even the most advance version of nanoimprint lithography made by the company of Canon (Molecular Imprints) represented by its machine FPA-1200NZ2C NIL system still does not come close to meeting the requirements for high density logic.
I am not sure if there have been takers for the FPA-1200NZ2C, although it is targeting 5nm and 2nm nodes: https://global.canon/en/product/indtech/semicon/fpa1200nz2c.html.

EUV has its defectivity issues as well, most notably the stochastic defects. While low photon density is a key contributor, it looks like it is not the only one. The EUV-induced plasma needs to be studied, particularly the impact from nanoparticles.
I however fully acknowledge that there could be other methods of alternatives to EUV, and I will applaud China authorities, and companies for investing and perusing new avenues. However, at this current stage, there is no evidence that there are any feasible pathways besides Extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) using laser-produced plasma (LPP).
It's probably generally agreed that China would have the hardest time trying to replicate the most complicated technology. If they can work with simpler alternatives, surely they would opt for that. Nanoimprint is far from ready, but given its extreme (relative) simplicity, development cycles should be faster. Currently, SMIC uses DUV systems, probably mostly not the most advanced models. Multipatterning is necessary, but it would be expected even for 5nm and 3nm EUV.
 
GD Nano's UV soft-template nano-imprinting system get China closer to self sufficiency in sub 10nm lithography tools:

Suzhou Guangru Micro-Nano Technology Co., Ltd. was established in 2011. It is committed to the research and development of nanoimprint equipment and technology and the industrialization and promotion of its application. It has developed and produced a variety of nanoimprint equipment, supporting processes and consumables, and successfully launched fully automatic mass-produced nanoimprint equipment, achieving industrialization progress and industrial replacement of stepper lithography machines in the LED industry. It also has a variety of mass-produced nanoimprint equipment suitable for AR gratings and micro-structured optical devices, and has the processing capability of dry etching micro-nano structure devices. The company is currently in a leading position in the industry.

The company was founded by talents introduced by the national talent program. Since its establishment, it has received support and funding from the national, Jiangsu Provincial, and Suzhou Municipal governments, and has experienced vigorous development. It is a high-tech enterprise in the field of micro-nano manufacturing technology.

 
This is something I had just found yesterday. I also do not have that information. But it is intriguing that they address 12"wafers and 10nm resolution (better than the 2nm EUV systems' 13 nm resolution). But the overlay, uniformity and defectivity are all important for sure.

I am not sure if there have been takers for the FPA-1200NZ2C, although it is targeting 5nm and 2nm nodes: https://global.canon/en/product/indtech/semicon/fpa1200nz2c.html.

EUV has its defectivity issues as well, most notably the stochastic defects. While low photon density is a key contributor, it looks like it is not the only one. The EUV-induced plasma needs to be studied, particularly the impact from nanoparticles.

It's probably generally agreed that China would have the hardest time trying to replicate the most complicated technology. If they can work with simpler alternatives, surely they would opt for that. Nanoimprint is far from ready, but given its extreme (relative) simplicity, development cycles should be faster. Currently, SMIC uses DUV systems, probably mostly not the most advanced models. Multipatterning is necessary, but it would be expected even for 5nm and 3nm EUV.
Both electron beam lithography, and ion beam lithography also provide high resolution, however they are not capable of performing high volume manufacturing. Therefore, resolution is definitely not the only factor in determining if a machine is capable of high-volume manufacturing.

If there have not been any major takers for the FPA-1200NZ2C, then there must be concerns regarding the capabilities of it. I however lack industry insight to provide a proper assessment of its capabilities.

I agree, it would be more suitable for China authorities to explore a plethora of options. China does have the hindsight of understanding the difficulties with EUV development. I remember during the early phrase of EUV development, there was this inspirational aura that EUV machines would be fully constructed and integrated into semiconductor foundries by the late 2000s and early 2010s. Of course, this never panned out, with the complexities associated with EUV development going beyond even the most pessimistic perspectives. I wonder if the industry would have chosen a different path if they we're aware of the full future issues they we're going to face.
 
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