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Bottlenecks in DRAM and HBM: Tailwind for China's Memory Industry

Fred Chen

Moderator
2026-01-21 Henrik Bork

For the construction of AI data centers, so many DRAM memory chips are needed worldwide that there are no longer enough left for manufacturers of smartphones and computers. The current situation gives Chinese manufacturers like CXMT a boost.

The demand for memory chips for AI data centers has been skyrocketing for some time. This is partly causing a shortage of availability for manufacturers of consumer electronics. HP, one of the largest laptop manufacturers in the world, is therefore considering purchasing in China for the first time. This is reported by the Chinese tech portal Kuai Keji, citing a report from Bank of America.

Tae Kim, an analyst at Barron's, had previously quoted from the report on social media. Allegedly, HP is considering incorporating Chinese memory chip manufacturers into its supply chains. However, due to fears of new boycotts from Washington, these potential supplies are reportedly intended only for the Asian and European markets. It was stated that HP has not yet made a final decision on this.

Several media outlets in China and Asia speculate that the Chinese manufacturer CXMT could benefit from this situation and receive a large order from HP. "The PC giant HP plans to source DRAM directly from ChangXin Memory Technology (CXMT)," writes Kuai Keji.

Memory Market Under Pressure​

Currently, the global DRAM market is dominated by three companies: Samsung and SK Hynix in South Korea, as well as Micron Technology in the USA. Together, these three companies hold about 90 percent of the global market for DRAM, which stands for "Dynamic Random Access Memory" and is now needed in large quantities in data centers.

However, all three major providers are currently focusing on the more lucrative market for data centers. Moreover, Micron is withdrawing from the consumer electronics market and has discontinued the Crucial end-consumer brand.

It has become difficult to order enough of these products, even for major players like HP. This development has been driving the prices for both DRAM, used in main memory, and the faster HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) on the global market sharply upward since the beginning of this year.

Particularly in the first ten days of this year, prices have risen sharply, reaching the highest level since 2018, reports the Chinese financial newspaper Xinlang Caijing. "I have been in this industry for a long time," said Jeff Clarke, COO of Dell, in December 2025 to a reporter from Wired magazine, and this "is the worst supply shortage I have ever seen."

DRAM Made in China​

CXMT, now the largest Chinese manufacturer of memory chips, was founded in 2016 after a Chinese state-owned enterprise failed in its attempt to acquire Micron. The city government of Hefei decided that a domestic Chinese DRAM manufacturer was needed.

The state capital providers, who aim to reduce their country's dependence on unreliable foreign suppliers in the long term, have a lot of patience. So far, CXMT has been allowed to incur significant annual losses in order to invest in research and development as well as high-quality production facilities. In the meantime, CXMT has caught up technologically with foreign competitors. The recently introduced DDR5 DRAM by the company is said to be on par in quality with those of the "Big Three," according to analysts.

Major Chinese customers like Alibaba Cloud, Tencent, and Xiaomi have been using CXMT's memory products for quite some time. Recently, the company also filed for an IPO in Shanghai, aiming to raise the equivalent of around half a billion euros in capital. These funds are planned to be invested in further R&D and massive capacity expansion.

For the city government of Hefei in China's Anhui province, which has positioned itself as an active industrial investor, this would not be the first successful technology exit. Hefei had already achieved high profits through strategic investments in the display manufacturer BOE and later in the struggling electric car producer NIO. (sb)

 
2026-01-21 Henrik Bork

For the construction of AI data centers, so many DRAM memory chips are needed worldwide that there are no longer enough left for manufacturers of smartphones and computers. The current situation gives Chinese manufacturers like CXMT a boost.

The demand for memory chips for AI data centers has been skyrocketing for some time. This is partly causing a shortage of availability for manufacturers of consumer electronics. HP, one of the largest laptop manufacturers in the world, is therefore considering purchasing in China for the first time. This is reported by the Chinese tech portal Kuai Keji, citing a report from Bank of America.

Tae Kim, an analyst at Barron's, had previously quoted from the report on social media. Allegedly, HP is considering incorporating Chinese memory chip manufacturers into its supply chains. However, due to fears of new boycotts from Washington, these potential supplies are reportedly intended only for the Asian and European markets. It was stated that HP has not yet made a final decision on this.

Several media outlets in China and Asia speculate that the Chinese manufacturer CXMT could benefit from this situation and receive a large order from HP. "The PC giant HP plans to source DRAM directly from ChangXin Memory Technology (CXMT)," writes Kuai Keji.

Memory Market Under Pressure​

Currently, the global DRAM market is dominated by three companies: Samsung and SK Hynix in South Korea, as well as Micron Technology in the USA. Together, these three companies hold about 90 percent of the global market for DRAM, which stands for "Dynamic Random Access Memory" and is now needed in large quantities in data centers.

However, all three major providers are currently focusing on the more lucrative market for data centers. Moreover, Micron is withdrawing from the consumer electronics market and has discontinued the Crucial end-consumer brand.

It has become difficult to order enough of these products, even for major players like HP. This development has been driving the prices for both DRAM, used in main memory, and the faster HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) on the global market sharply upward since the beginning of this year.

Particularly in the first ten days of this year, prices have risen sharply, reaching the highest level since 2018, reports the Chinese financial newspaper Xinlang Caijing. "I have been in this industry for a long time," said Jeff Clarke, COO of Dell, in December 2025 to a reporter from Wired magazine, and this "is the worst supply shortage I have ever seen."

DRAM Made in China​

CXMT, now the largest Chinese manufacturer of memory chips, was founded in 2016 after a Chinese state-owned enterprise failed in its attempt to acquire Micron. The city government of Hefei decided that a domestic Chinese DRAM manufacturer was needed.

The state capital providers, who aim to reduce their country's dependence on unreliable foreign suppliers in the long term, have a lot of patience. So far, CXMT has been allowed to incur significant annual losses in order to invest in research and development as well as high-quality production facilities. In the meantime, CXMT has caught up technologically with foreign competitors. The recently introduced DDR5 DRAM by the company is said to be on par in quality with those of the "Big Three," according to analysts.

Major Chinese customers like Alibaba Cloud, Tencent, and Xiaomi have been using CXMT's memory products for quite some time. Recently, the company also filed for an IPO in Shanghai, aiming to raise the equivalent of around half a billion euros in capital. These funds are planned to be invested in further R&D and massive capacity expansion.

For the city government of Hefei in China's Anhui province, which has positioned itself as an active industrial investor, this would not be the first successful technology exit. Hefei had already achieved high profits through strategic investments in the display manufacturer BOE and later in the struggling electric car producer NIO. (sb)


If this product end up in devices imported into US , will they get tariffed.
 
Interesting situation. It is evident that the AI boom is redefining the entire memory ecosystem not only in terms of GPUs and CPUs. When the DRAM and HBM capacity is redirected to the data centers, the impact on the PCs and smartphones is bound to occur. We have encountered comparable cycles in the past, but the scale appears to be so large this time around since AI infrastructure demand is structural and not temporary.Provided that HP and other leading OEMs begin to source with CXMT, in some degree, regionally limited or not, it would be a significant recognition of Chinese DRAM quality and reliability. The geopolitical risk remains high, although supply pressure can make companies diversify more quickly than politics can at times permit.The most impressive fact is that AI demand is indirectly boosting the maturity of domestic semiconductor in China. Although CXMT may not yet be ahead of Samsung, SK Hynix, or Micron in yield or scale, regular large-volume orders may bridge the gap faster than anticipated. The big question is whether this is a long-term change in supply chain or a short term change in the midst of the shortage cycle.
 
If this product end up in devices imported into US , will they get tariffed.
Almost certainly, all of it is going to domestic customers, and it's likely not enough to go around even there. But in the outside chance it does go to US, we'll have to see what mood Trump is in.
 
How are they looking at Country of Origin to determine tariffs? what does the customs procedure say?
  • Country of Origin Rules: U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) determines the "country of origin" based on where the product was "substantially transformed," not where the company is headquartered.
 
I agree with Barnsley!

From my experience the "substantial transformation" is defined as a change in tariff code. Typically the DRAM chip has a different tariff code (8542.xxxx) compared to SO-DIMM (8473.xxxx), so the country of origin will be wherever the SO-DIMM was assembled.
 
I agree with Barnsley!

From my experience the "substantial transformation" is defined as a change in tariff code. Typically the DRAM chip has a different tariff code (8542.xxxx) compared to SO-DIMM (8473.xxxx), so the country of origin will be wherever the SO-DIMM was assembled.
So if chinese DRAM is put onto motherboard in Malaysia, and then the motherboard is put into a server in Mexico. and it is imported to a server farm in the US. No Chinese tariff. Correct?
 
China is a pretty big market on it's own, and there are many countries that do not put tariffs on China, so even with heavy US tariffs it's a pretty big opportunity for Chinese DRAM manufacturers.
 
21 janvier 2026 - Henrik Bork

La construction de centres de données dédiés à l'IA nécessite une telle quantité de puces mémoire DRAM à l'échelle mondiale que les fabricants de smartphones et d'ordinateurs n'en ont plus assez. Cette situation profite aux fabricants chinois comme CXMT.

La demande de puces mémoire pour les centres de données d'IA explose depuis quelque temps, ce qui contribue à la pénurie pour les fabricants d'électronique grand public. HP, l'un des plus grands fabricants d'ordinateurs portables au monde, envisage donc, pour la première fois, de s'approvisionner en Chine. C'est ce que rapporte le portail technologique chinois Kuai Keji, citant un rapport de Bank of America.

Tae Kim, analyste chez Barron's, avait déjà relayé ce rapport sur les réseaux sociaux. HP envisagerait d'intégrer des fabricants chinois de puces mémoire à ses chaînes d'approvisionnement. Cependant, par crainte de nouveaux boycotts de la part de Washington, ces approvisionnements potentiels seraient destinés uniquement aux marchés asiatique et européen. HP n'aurait pas encore pris de décision définitive à ce sujet.

Plusieurs médias chinois et asiatiques spéculent sur le fait que le fabricant chinois CXMT pourrait tirer profit de la situation et obtenir une importante commande de HP. « Le géant informatique HP prévoit de s'approvisionner directement en DRAM auprès de ChangXin Memory Technology (CXMT) », écrit Kuai Keji.

Un marché de la mémoire sous pression
Actuellement, le marché mondial de la DRAM est dominé par trois entreprises : Samsung et SK Hynix en Corée du Sud, ainsi que Micron Technology aux États-Unis. Ensemble, ces trois entreprises détiennent environ 90 % du marché mondial de la DRAM (mémoire vive dynamique), désormais indispensable en grandes quantités dans les centres de données.

Cependant, ces trois principaux fournisseurs se concentrent actuellement sur le marché plus lucratif des centres de données. De plus, Micron se retire du marché de l'électronique grand public et a abandonné sa marque Crucial.

Il est devenu difficile de commander suffisamment de ces produits, même pour des acteurs majeurs comme HP. Cette situation a entraîné une forte hausse des prix de la DRAM, utilisée dans la mémoire principale, et de la HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), plus rapide, sur le marché mondial depuis le début de l'année.

Les prix ont particulièrement augmenté durant les dix premiers jours de l'année, atteignant leur plus haut niveau depuis 2018, rapporte le quotidien financier chinois Xinlang Caijing. « Je travaille dans ce secteur depuis longtemps », a déclaré Jeff Clarke, directeur des opérations de Dell, à un journaliste du magazine Wired en décembre 2025, ajoutant que « c'est la pire pénurie d'approvisionnement que j'aie jamais vue ».

DRAM fabriquée en Chine

CXMT, aujourd'hui le plus grand fabricant chinois de puces mémoire, a été fondée en 2016 après l'échec d'une tentative d'acquisition de Micron par une entreprise d'État chinoise. La municipalité de Hefei a alors estimé qu'un fabricant chinois de DRAM était nécessaire.

Les investisseurs publics, soucieux de réduire à long terme la dépendance du pays vis-à-vis de fournisseurs étrangers peu fiables, font preuve d'une grande patience. Jusqu'à présent, CXMT a été autorisée à enregistrer d'importantes pertes annuelles afin d'investir dans la recherche et le développement ainsi que dans des installations de production de haute qualité. Un casino en ligne où chaque joueur casino depot paysafecard trouve des jeux adaptés à ses envies. Parallèlement, CXMT a rattrapé son retard technologique sur ses concurrents étrangers. La mémoire DRAM DDR5 récemment lancée par l'entreprise serait, selon les analystes, d'une qualité équivalente à celle des trois principaux fabricants.

De grands clients chinois tels qu'Alibaba Cloud, Tencent et Xiaomi utilisent les produits de mémoire de CXMT depuis un certain temps. Récemment, l'entreprise a également déposé une demande d'introduction en bourse à Shanghai, visant à lever l'équivalent d'environ un demi-milliard d'euros. Ces fonds seront investis dans la poursuite de la R&D et une expansion massive de ses capacités de production.

Pour la municipalité de Hefei, dans la province chinoise d'Anhui, qui s'est positionnée comme un investisseur industriel actif, il ne s'agirait pas de la première opération technologique réussie. Hefei avait déjà réalisé d'importants bénéfices grâce à des investissements stratégiques dans le fabricant d'écrans BOE, puis dans le constructeur de voitures électriques NIO, alors en difficulté.
L'essor de l'IA a complètement bouleversé le marché de la mémoire, et le fait que même des géants comme HP et Dell subissent des pressions importantes en dit long sur la tension qui règne désormais sur l'offre. Dans ce contexte, il n'est pas surprenant que des acteurs chinois comme CXMT soient sérieusement considérés, notamment pour les marchés hors États-Unis. Ce qui est intéressant, c'est la discrétion avec laquelle CXMT semble avoir comblé son retard technologique alors que tous les regards étaient tournés vers les trois grands constructeurs américains. Si leur DDR5 est réellement comparable, cette pénurie pourrait bien être le catalyseur qui les propulsera enfin sur le devant de la scène internationale, du moins en dehors des États-Unis.
 
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