ASML lifts 2026 forecast as surging AI chip demand boosts new orders

[Daniel Nenni]

- ASML lifts 2026 revenue outlook to 36 billion-40 billion euros
- Chipmaking tool maker cites AI-driven demand
- CEO Christophe Fouquet says chip demand outpaces supply
- ASML to ship 60 low NA EUV tools in 2026, 25% more than 2025, CFO says
- New China export restrictions a potential negative, CFO says

AMSTERDAM, April 15 (Reuters) - ASML (ASML.AS), opens new tab, the world's largest supplier of chipmaking tools, on Wednesday reported stronger-than-expected first-quarter earnings and lifted its 2026 revenue outlook as artificial intelligence boosts demand for its equipment.

The stronger forecast underscores the rapid expansion of the global market for AI and a resulting data-centre boom that is straining supply chains and turbocharging chipmaker valuations.

"Demand for chips is outpacing supply," CEO Christophe Fouquet said in a statement, flagging an influx of new orders to ASML in the past quarter. "Our customers are accelerating their capacity expansion plans for 2026 and beyond."

ASML LIFTS REVENUE FORECAST
The Veldhoven, ⁠Netherlands-based firm, Europe's most valuable by market capitalisation, said 2026 revenue will now be between 36 billion and 40 billion euros ($42 billion-$47 billion), up from a previous forecast of 34 billion to 39 billion euros.

Analysts had forecast the figure at 37.7 billion euros, LSEG data show. Shares rose 1.2% in early trading in Amsterdam, briefly touching a new record high above 1,300 euros ($1,532).

Investors say they view ASML as a "picks-and-shovels" play on AI, as it supplies key equipment to chipmakers such as TSMC (2330.TW), opens new tab, which in turn produces processors for Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab and Apple.

Other top ASML customers include memory chip makers Samsung (005930.KS), opens new tab and SK Hynix (000660.KS), opens new tab of South Korea, and Micron (MU.O), opens new tab and Intel (INTC.O), opens new tab of the U.S.

ASML's shares have risen 40% so far this year amid the rapid construction of data centres and a shortage of memory chips, both of which contribute to demand for ASML products.

However, there are physical limits to how quickly new chip plants can be built, ‌and analysts ⁠see ASML's valuation as already high.
The ASML logo is seen at the company's headquarters in Veldhoven

The ASML logo is seen at the company's headquarters in Veldhoven, Netherlands, June 16, 2023. REUTERS/Piroschka van de Wouw/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

EXPORT RESTRICTIONS
Key challenges facing the firm include supply chain constraints and the possibility of new restrictions on its ability to ship tools to China proposed by U.S. Congress in legislation called the "MATCH Act".

CFO Roger Dassen said the company currently still expects 20% of sales to go to customers in China this year, but if the restrictions materialize, it could drag sales toward the low end of company guidance.

However "some of that demand could be absorbed by other customers in the current market", he ⁠told journalists on a post-earnings call.

ASML AIMS TO SHIP 25% MORE OF ITS BESTSELLING TOOLS IN 2026
Addressing potential concerns about ASML's ability to keep up with demand, Dassen said the company should be able to ship 60 of its bestselling low-NA EUV tools in 2026 - 25% more than in 2025 - and will have capacity to ship 80 in ⁠2027.

He said the company has been working closely with key supplier Zeiss of Germany to increase production of both its EUV and DUV tools.

ASML is the only maker of EUV, or extreme ultraviolet lithography tools, which can cost $300 million each and use lasers to create the tiny circuitry of advanced chips. ⁠It competes with Nikon (7731.T), opens new tab of Japan and SMEE of China in its slightly less-advanced DUV tool range.

First-quarter earnings were 2.76 billion euros on sales of 8.76 billion euros. That was up from 2.36 billion euros on sales of 7.74 billion euros in the first quarter of 2025.

ASML lifts 2026 forecast as surging AI chip demand boosts new orders

ASML , the world's largest supplier of chipmaking tools, on Wednesday reported stronger-than-expected first-quarter earnings and lifted its 2026 revenue outlook as artificial intelligence boosts demand for its equipment.

www.reuters.com

 

[Daniel Nenni]

TSMC and South Korea would be my guess unless Terafab is already gearing up?

 

[Barnsley]

Is this for new facilities or to replace outgoing equipment?

If replacement , where is the older equipment going?

 

[user nl]

Here the transcript of the ASML-investor call.

They expect to ship some 60 in 2026 and some 80+ low-NA EUV tools in 2027. About the 2028 expectations/demand CEO didn't want to predict too much yet, too far out currently.

It's clear ASML is gearing up for a ~doubling in EUV-tool shipments relative to say 2024/2025.

CEO said a few times, ASML won't be the bottleneck in the AI buildout (SemiAnalysis kind of predicted EUV tooling would be the weakest link).

https://ourbrand.asml.com/asset/8e1..._15-ASML-Transcript-investor-call-Q1-2026.pdf

 

[user nl]

ASML expects to nearly double EUV production in 2027, while bracing for new limits on exports of chipmaking machines to China. Of last quarter’s 8.8 billion euros in revenue, 19 percent came from China. This is a much smaller share than before, and one expected to shrink further.

During a video presentation highlighting ASML's quarterly results, CFO Roger Dassen said: “Within the guidance the of 36 to 40 billion euros we believe we can accommodate potential outcomes of the export control discussions that are currently ongoing."

In Washington a new law is in preparation: the hashtag#MATCH Act, short for Multilateral Alignment of Technology Controls on Hardware. Supported by both Democrats and Republicans, it seeks to bar China from access to advanced chipmaking tools.

There is already an export ban on ASML's most advanced EUV systems, which use extreme ultraviolet light to make the fastest chips. Somewhat less advanced DUV systems, which can still produce fast AI chips, are also off-limits to China.

US politicians Andy Kim and Pete Ricketts want to tighten controls further, targeting major Chinese chipmakers such as hashtag#CXMT, hashtag#SMIC and hashtag#YMTC. If such companies can buy fewer machines, that will hit not only ASML but also US and Japanese equipment makers, which earn roughly a quarter to a third of their revenue in China. China has designed domestic alternatives for many tools, but replacing ASML in the near term is not realistic.

If the Netherlands and Japan do not align export controls with stricter US rules, the MATCH Act would enforce them unilaterally, further straining relations between Washington and its allies.

At the same time, the US needs ASML for hashtag#TSMC’s planned fab expansions in hashtag#Arizona. Last week, ASML ceo Christophe Fouquet met US commerce secretary Howard W. Lutnick. More than 8,000 ASML employees work in the US, in two factories, three research centers and 14 customer sites, Fouquet stressed.

The MATCH Act, still in draft, is intended to tighten and multilateralise export controls on chipmaking equipment, reinforcing the US position vis-à-vis hashtag#China. While Washington dominates chip technology, Beijing controls access to rare materials vital to the tech industry. A Chinese export ban on such inputs still looms as a possible response to US chip curbs.
The Trump administration is trying to strike a deal with China and is allowing exports of some advanced AI chips. Tariffs and export controls are all negotiable, in the US president’s view.

In the first quarter, ASML booked 2.6 billion euros in net profit. Two-thirds of its revenue came from EUV systems, and 2.5 billion euros from upgrades to installed machines.
Demand for AI compute, especially fast hashtag#logic chips and hashtag#HBM memory, is so strong that ASML cannot build enough tools. The company expects to ship about sixty Low-NA EUV systems this year and eighty next year. In 2025, 48 EUV-machines were built.

#match #cxmt #smic #ymtc #tsmc #arizona #china #logic #hbm #semiconductors | Marc Hijink

ASML expects to nearly double EUV production in 2027, while bracing for new limits on exports of chipmaking machines to China. Of last quarter’s 8.8 billion euros in revenue, 19 percent came from China. This is a much smaller share than before, and one expected to shrink further. During a...

www.linkedin.com

 

[Fred Chen]

Sharp drop in ArFi revenue, could that be China?

 

[Fred Chen]

He's still quoting throughput at 30 mJ/cm2, should be at 60 mJ/cm2. I wonder how bad it is at that dose.

 

[Barnsley]

Sharp drop in ArFi revenue, could that be China?

All the 2nd hand stuff , this new gear is replacing?

 

[user nl]

He's still quoting throughput at 30 mJ/cm2, should be at 60 mJ/cm2. I wonder how bad it is at that dose.

I think ASML set some years ago to spec at 30 mJ/cm2. For ease of comparison of the buyer probably easier to keep the wafers/hour at this same value then changing to different pulse energy / cm2 with every new version/upgraded/improved EUV tool.

Customers have their own "secret sauce at what pulse energies they work" in their specific process.

 

[user nl]

All the 2nd hand stuff , this new gear is replacing?

I think China bought as many iArF tools as they could during the last 3-4 years, even though they may have gone into storage for a while; just to make sure they had those tools, before Trump might block again some exports of additional/other models DUV litho-tools to China.

Like hoarding the best ASML litho they could import as if they were stamps to be used at some later point.....

I think China tries to buy every litho tool that appears on the used-litho-tool market wherever/whenever.