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How long at a current and accelerating pace will it be to hit full artificial intelligence and could not artificial genius not be far behind? Technology is advancing over a broad specter of fields and endeavors that could become a critical mass that could surpass anything we have now. Any thoughts or comments appreciated.
How long at a current and accelerating pace will it be to hit full artificial intelligence and could not artificial genius not be far behind? Technology is advancing over a broad specter of fields and endeavors that could become a critical mass that could surpass anything we have now. Any thoughts or comments appreciated.
It really is intriguing. I'm not sure anyone really knows how AI is going to end up. The only thing I am sure of is that there is no controlling it so ride the AI wave or get ridden by it.
Personal AI is already moving fast. Privacy is one thig out of the window. Google started this by logging our every search. Apple does it by tracking our phone activity. Siri and Alexa listen to us. Ring Doorbells watch us. Self driving cars track us. AI will take all of that data and predict our every move. Yes AI can help us but it will know too much and could outsmart us.
Commercial AI is growing fast and could be running large parts of the economy within a decade, but full control of the world, in the science-fiction sense, is not inevitable and depends heavily on human choices. Most experts think 20–50 years is a reasonable range for transformative impact, though whether that’s “control” or “partnership” will depend on us. I am betting on partnership but it could go the other way, absolutely.
The other view is it could be a while before artificial genius --
We've already had a few decades of boom/bust cycles for AI, and on the bust side, progress slows greatly partly due to funding reductions, and partly due to prioritization of energy/thinking elsewhere. The chart below is an example (I've seen a few) showing previous boom/bust cycles around AI.
If you're old enough, you may remember the big push in the 1990s for AI -- magazines, movies (Lawnmower Man, I think?), etc. "A(G)I is around the corner" was a foregone conclusion before.
We unquestionably have some useful and interesting new tools from AI today that we didn't have before - but something that can really push humanity forward without augmenting a human (i.e. self-contained genius), is still very TBD.
