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"Intel stock (NASDAQ:INTC) has barely moved this year, up just 2%, as the company continues to struggle with shrinking relevance in its core CPU market and underwhelming progress in its foundry ambitions, despite investing over $50 billion in the space. Revenue has collapsed from $79 billion in 2021 to $53 billion in 2024. While the broader PC market is showing signs of stabilization, Intel’s top line is projected to decline again this year - suggesting revenue stagnation could become the norm. Meanwhile, stocks of competitors like AMD and Nvidia are soaring, up 43% and 24% respectively in 2025. Could Intel stock plunge to $10 - half its current value? It may seem extreme, but given the steady erosion of its fundamentals, it’s no longer unthinkable. Below, we provide a scenario considering three key metrics, namely revenues, net margins, and price-to-earnings multiple. That said, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception."
I agree I'm not seeing much action or a path to improve their top line revenue in the next couple of years.
They're a token player in AI, though at least starting to take action. Local-on-CPU AI for average users doesn't seem to bring any special value yet, so no reason for businesses or users to refresh their "old PCs" with "NPU laden" PCs.
They're still losing and on track to continue losing market share to AMD in Datacenter.
The Foundry not winning any new customers means.. no growth there.
They're spinning off/have spun off some groups - MobileEye, "Networking and Edge", etc. = less revenue from alternate sources.
The discrete GPU market appears to be ~ $20-22B as of last year... a hard push from Intel might get them to 10% market share in another year, or if miracles line up - a 20-25% share in 2-3 years, but that's not nearly enough to offset their current trajectory.
What am I missing?
(Disclaimer - I don't own any direct stocks of INTC or it's competitors, though mutual funds that do..)
a hard push from Intel might get them to 10% market share in another year, or if miracles line up - a 20-25% share in 2-3 years, but that's not nearly enough to offset their current trajectory.
Intel has been trying in the discrete GPU market for several years and has their 2nd gen Battlemage out. But even with that, they don't have anything competitive. So, Intel's current market share is still less than 1%. Thus, the 10% share possibility would fall into your "miracles line up" category.
Catchy title for sure. In my opinion the great Intel hope is to get manufacturing back integrated with design. Can Intel really compete with AMD on design when AMD has a much closer relationship with TSMC? We all know how important a close link between design and manufacturing is, right? Just ask Apple. Can Intel compete with customers when they are making their own silicon using TSMC and they are writing some very big checks to get the best silicon possible?
I just do not see Intel being an industry leader again without manufacturing. Not with the likes of AMD, Nvidia, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Tesla competing with them. And now Tesla has a manufacturing deal backed by the richest person in the world. My advice to Intel is to do something very very clever and get back into technology innovation, both software and silicon.
Historically, Because it's AMD because it's Intel...
Another way is to increase the number of X86 companions.
This must be considered with Intel, which has a cross license, but there is room for consideration.
www.forbes.com
