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Intel announces 18A process node has entered risk production

Fred Chen

Moderator
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By Paul Alcorn

At its Vision 2025 conference, Intel announced today that it has entered risk production of its 18A process node, a crucial production milestone signifying that the node is now in the early stages of low-volume test manufacturing runs.

Intel's Kevin O'Buckley, the Senior Vice President of Foundry Services, made the announcement as Intel nears the full completion of its "five nodes in four years" (5N4Y) plan, which was originally set in motion by ex-CEO Pat Gelsinger as part of the company's quest to retake the semiconductor crown from rival TSMC. The conference also marks the first time that new CEO Lip-Bu Tan has taken to the stage as the new leader of Intel.

Intel originally announced its four-year plan in June 2021, and despite canceling high volume manufacturing of the 20A node as a cost-cutting measure, Intel is on the cusp of reaching the finish line with its 18A node. Notably, Intel's 5N4Y plan hinged on the process nodes being available for production rather than actively being in the final high volume manufacturing (HVM) stage.

Risk production is one of many steps on the long road to fielding a new process node and indicates that the company believes the node is nearly ready for HVM. Intel has already produced plenty of 18A test chips/shuttles, typically wherein multiple different designs are prototyped on a single wafer.

In contrast, risk production consists of pressing wafers full of a single chip design into low-volume manufacturing as the company tweaks its manufacturing flow and qualifies the node and Process Design Kit (PDK) in real-world production runs. Intel will then scale production up to higher levels in the second half of the year. This step of bringing up a semiconductor process comes after the R&D, design, and prototyping stages of development.

There is some 'risk' to risk production, though, as yields and functionality (parametric yields, etc.) can be sub-par as the company refines its manufacturing techniques and optimizes its tooling as it works up the learning curve. As such, customers typically use risk production to manufacture qualification or engineering samples, and the customers aren't given as stringent yield targets/guarantees as they are with nodes fully qualified for HVM.

However, some customers are willing to assume those risks to get the payoff of gaining significant time-to-market advantages through early access to the node, which then allows them to adjust and perfect their designs before competitors even begin production.

Intel hasn't yet specified if the 18A risk production is for its own Panther Lake processors, which it says will arrive on schedule later this year, or if the production runs are for its external foundry customers. However, Panther Lake, Intel's first 18A processors, will enter mass production later this year. As such, the Panther Lake chips are likely the risk production subject; this schedule generally aligns with our expectations for a typical risk production-to-HVM timeline for Intel.

Although Intel pioneered several new technologies on its cancelled 20A node, the 18A (1.8nm) chips will be the first productized chips with both PowerVia backside power delivery and RibbonFET gate-all-around (GAA) transistors. PowerVia provides optimized power routing to improve performance and transistor density, and RibbonFET also provides better transistor density along with faster transistor switching, but in a smaller area.

Intel also continues to work on its broader foundry roadmap, which includes the follow-on 14A node, Intel's first to utilize High-NA EUV lithography. Numerous node extensions to other nodes will further expand Intel Foundry Services' portfolio to a broader range of applications.

These developments come during turbulence at Intel Foundry as the company adjusts to changing macroeconomic factors. Intel recently delayed the build-out of its Ohio operations until 2030, for example. However, the announcement of 18A risk production mirrors the positive reports that Intel is running its first 18A wafers through its Arizona fabs.

We expect to learn much more about Intel's future plans at its Foundry Direct Connect event in late April.

"Risk production, while it sounds scary, is actually an industry standard terminology, and the importance of risk production is we've gotten the technology to a point where we're freezing it," O'Buckley explained. "Our customers have validated that, 'Yep, 18 A is good enough for my product.' And we have to now do the 'risk' part, which is to scale it from making hundreds of units per day to thousands, tens of thousands, and then hundreds of thousands. So risk production [..] is scaling our manufacturing up and ensuring that we can meet not just the capabilities of the technology, but the capabilities at scale."

 
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Yes but for which product cause Intel announced risk production for Panther Lake I don't know which specific products did TSMC did risk production for.

A lot of TSMC's customers are systems companies so you will not see the chips until the end product is ready. For Apple it is the 4th quarter of the year in millions of units so there is quite a bit of prep required. It is similar for Intel if you consider when the PCs and laptops are on the shelves. When will 18A based products hit the shelves? If we are talking about risk production now it will be sometime next year? Is Intel still focused on back to school and holiday seasons?

I still say Intel 18A and TSMC N2 are competitive nodes in time and specs. Lip-Bu said 2-3 foundry customers which should be announced this year. Given his conservative nature it could be twice that. Last I heard 7 of the top 10 semiconductor companies were working with Intel Foundry. That would be amazing if they closed all 7 but even 5 would be a big deal.

Any guesses on when 14A with HNA-EUV will be in risk production? That could be a big one for Intel Foundry since TSMC will be standard EUV. Somewhere in the 2028 -2030 range?
 
A lot of TSMC's customers are systems companies so you will not see the chips until the end product is ready. For Apple it is the 4th quarter of the year in millions of units so there is quite a bit of prep required. It is similar for Intel if you consider when the PCs and laptops are on the shelves. When will 18A based products hit the shelves? If we are talking about risk production now it will be sometime next year? Is Intel still focused on back to school and holiday seasons?

I still say Intel 18A and TSMC N2 are competitive nodes in time and specs. Lip-Bu said 2-3 foundry customers which should be announced this year. Given his conservative nature it could be twice that. Last I heard 7 of the top 10 semiconductor companies were working with Intel Foundry. That would be amazing if they closed all 7 but even 5 would be a big deal.

Any guesses on when 14A with HNA-EUV will be in risk production? That could be a big one for Intel Foundry since TSMC will be standard EUV. Somewhere in the 2028 -2030 range?
I can guess between Q4 26 and Q2 27 Products EOY 27 my best guess I guess we will find it out at IFS Event on April 29 based on this image.

Intel-Foundry-1.jpg
 
How many 18A wafers were they running before risk production and how many now? 5K per month? 10K?
Risk production is very important to cost accounting and expense allocation
 
TSMC started trial production in July 2024

I love how we have news of trial production without size of the Chip.
Intel said Panther Lake risk production and we have the size from the leaks but for TSMC we don't have any hint of what that is also I don't think it's Apple Chip cause iirc Apple taped out later that year.
They could have run 5K wafer for Apple by December that may be the case but not in July.
 
I love how we have news of trial production without size of the Chip.
Intel said Panther Lake risk production and we have the size from the leaks but for TSMC we don't have any hint of what that is also I don't think it's Apple Chip cause iirc Apple taped out later that year.
They could have run 5K wafer for Apple by December that may be the case but not in July.

Almost as amusing as comments focused on the word “Apple” and omitting the reality of TSMC being an actual foundry, with likely hundreds of clients many eager to receive both N2 trial and risk wafers, having many die sizes.
 
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Yes Fred, TSMC started N2 risk production 4-6 months before Intel's 18A.
TSMC completed 5,000 risk wafers by Dec, 2024

TSMC's risk production is generally Apple focused which is a decent sized SoC that will be extremely high volume so yield is key. From what I understand TSMC yield is a bit ahead of Intel which is impressive since N2 is more dense.
 
TSMC's risk production is generally Apple focused which is a decent sized SoC that will be extremely high volume so yield is key. From what I understand TSMC yield is a bit ahead of Intel which is impressive since N2 is more dense.

The A18 Pro's die size is likely in the range of 105-115 mm²
 
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