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I have said that the largest improvement in profits for DRAM companies in 2026 is DDR not HBM. All prices are skyrocketing.
HBM is obviously important but do DDR is most of the profit.
the key is clear expectations, quick review, quick decisions, no do overs.
If you don;t want a fab or Datacenter in your area fine.... Other people do. If not in the US, we can build in other countries.
LBT has done some amazing things on financing and culture change at Intel. But IFS execution to goals since 2021 is not good.
No customers (except USG in 2030)
No external revenue
Spending and volume on TSMC is not decreasing (Thank goodness... its keeping Intel alive)
IFS is constraining...
there could be any number of reasons.
they need the performance
The HP cell has better stability, lower error rate
The layout did not show a penalty for a larger cell. using a HD cell to save 1mm2 might not be a good idea. with chiplets and dummy silicon you could end up with no penalty.
I...
So Intel's IFS margins are NEGATIVE 50%. 18A is listed as a headwind to margins. Ramping 14A will hurt margins according to CFO
If IFS had 50% more revenue .... at zero cost.... they would not break even. If IFS had 100% of Global foundries revenue.... at zero cost.... they would not break...
I do think TSMC will continue after 2028 with or without chinese invasion.
If China invades, Semiconductor availability will not be a top 10 concern for me. TSMC customers will have more issues than Fabs. Most TSMC wafers or even packaged chips are not sent from taiwan to the US.
I am not an...
People are free to buy chips from Intel Samsung or GF if they are concerned. Personally I recommend buying from Taiwan Fabs .
What do Lisa Su and Jensen Huang say about the risk .
Countries should do what they do best. They should not do what others can do best. I still think my freshman econ teacher was correct.
The tech economy was built on utilizing what the US does well and what Asia does well.
BTW: Even at the exact same price/cost, Asia is currently a much...
N2 fabs are different than N5 fabs. they are not necessarily interchangable. I used to tell investors "Picture the most complicated power plant, Most complicated chemical factory/refinery, most complicated assembly line all rolled into one.... thats a Fab."
On the foundry....
Intel does not...
Refresh could be anything.
to simplify: On the initial set of SKUs which will launch in 2027 but somehow be claimed to be launched in 2026..... I believe the CPU is all N2. Please correct me if I am wrong.
This is why the term launch is important.... it means there are products I can buy...
I would love to see full technsights report and @Scotten Jones commentary.
So the SRAM cell size is .023. The N2 Cells size from TSMC products shown at ISSCC is what?
I am not sure we will see Nova lake 18A CPU products. Which skus are not N2?
if you have a personalized License plate without any numbers ..... then you are out of luck..... "No Memory for You!"
BTW: for small companies .... gray market DRAM of questionable origin is coming. The "craigslist-ing" of memory
As I wrote in another investor note, The reason for the stocks skyrocketing (6x+) is that Micron revenue is taking off due to price changes AND the P/E ratio went from "periodically unprofitable cyclical stock" to "AI 'picks and shovels' stock"
If they keep it undersupplied.... it will stay...
As I said in Linked in.... It was never coming in 2027. 18A doesnt even fill one fab until 2027. Even Intel Products (IF they do them on 14A) are not coming in 2027.
Right now there are no committed customers. Lets get a customer before we worry about ramp timing. Hopefully Q3 2026 commitment...
Memory has always been a strategic asset. Its a commodity in that the price goes up when short and down when excess supply and you can buy from 3+ interchangeable vendors .... Just like Oil.
Now the rationing begins. Maybe we will have Odd even. If your license plate ends in an odd number...
The boom is now and AMD is not as constrained as Intel. N2 is a 2027 problem
The issue at Intel is simple: The plan was to move people to newer nodes. It didnt happen. So the AI boom increased Intel 7 Demand while the Intel 3 and 18A demand is less than planned 1-2 year ago. The answer is to...
