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Need a AI meme of Musk saying how he will use a ""LASER"" to blow up the world. Maybe a "Mini Musk" too. Playing the part of Robert Wagner has to be Trump.
In my world, Yes. Dreams and aspirations give a early bump.. maybe it lasts, maybe not. I am not forecasting stock price. I am forecast whether someone will be succesful.
In the real world: People buy stocks based on dreams and hopes and what ifs. Then say "what about Amazon?, What about...
agreed.. Add them in as a customer. but you need to look at margins. Product group would need to keep margins at their level AND add 14B to IFS revenue at 50% IFS margins for IFS to break even. That means >20B in additional CPU sales. Should be very possible except somehow Intel continues to...
Lets compare what is happening vs exagerrated stories on Terafab.
Musk has committed to build a 25B factory in Texas with colocations of logic, memory packaging and mask making. this is called Terafab. This makes sense althought low volume IDM is a very bad idea, but only if you care about cost...
I have investors who have done extensive analysis on SOTP valuation:
IFS: Negative cash flow, huge negative margins, huge sunk capital, massive depreciation future (made worst by accounting changes). Generally valued near zero or lower. Generally they follow up with a questions for me "I dont...
IBM has a reputation for Process technologies. Very expensive and not very manufacturable. This is what GF saw. GF could not afford to take IBM technologies anymore.
Another "I" company has that same reputation today.
When will IFS break even should be the question. DZ has answered this and what happens if IFS gets customers for 14A.
Maybe the stock is skyrocketing because deals are in place..... but can IFS make money?
Again with the assumptions on Intel role. Is there ANY Indicator that says wafers will be started at Intel factories? Is there a reason to believe it wouldnt be a Licensing deal for 18A/14A (which would not be a massive revenue help)
I will leave the Terafab PR to Musk, But Musk companies are...
Couple Items:
The Fab 34 Apollo deal does not change Intel capacity. Intel was the only customer. Intel is given cash to Apollo to go away
I think Intel made announcements on the plans for Ohio about a month ago. It was a push out or clarification on pushout. 2030 best case. I am not sure if...
I (and many media people) total missed that. thank you.
So terafab is all things, everywhere, all at once..... but it doesnt exist yet.
Lets wait until someone presents a actual agreement and committment.
This is actually good for Intel as they could possible unload all their unused shells...
Terafab is supposed to be 25B..... with memory and Logic and packaging. That is a pretty small factory (Micro Fab? Kilo Fab?) REALITY? Its a made up affirmation. It should say "Elon plans to do something someday and Intel plans to talk with Elon about it"
Something major may be in the works...
One thing I went through at Intel and as a consultant to other compainies.... Once you skip a node (or 3) the cost goes up. Its very hard to get back on. its like starting greenfield fab and greenfield R&D. Maybe buy old Intel facilities or old TSMC/Samsung facilities. Intel took way longer...
I tihnk I will wait to see what this really is before concluding. We have a mythical memory and logic fab with packaging. Then we have a twitter of a partnership between the mythical fab and the manufacturing company that loses 8B per year.
My current model is that this will have no positive...
What exactly will Intel be doing on this? I think we need to know a few more details. Was there a filing or even official announcement? (twitter is not an official announcement) @Daniel Nenni
So the only announcement is on Twitter? Is there a actual announcement? SEC filing?
the word " refactor" is a interesting term.
Announcement Seems too vague at this point
I will be interested in the details. If Intel is licensing/sharing the technology, this is a great win. Got to find a way to pay for the billions in spending.
100% agree with you. I think Intel needs to look at "value options" to end this Intel 10nm and Intel 7 nonsense (I am shocked at how many CPUs Intel ships on 5 year old node). Per CFO, over 10% of Intel revenue comes from EUV in Q4 2025 LOL.
@Fred Chen
the die size is actually well published. techinsights has tons of info (Public). you don't need a detailed teardown to get die size. you can get it from xrays or working units. you can even get it from package layout to show the die dize is not 3x.
The HBM3 die size is is less...
