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I like to look to the Japanese steel industry as a blueprint of how to do this right. At a high level the approach Japan took was to lower the barriers to entry. They did this through tax incentives in the form of tax exemption measures, exempted Imported machinery from import duties along...
I understand the concern's given Intel's track record over the last decade. They are deservedly in a place where they need to walk the walk with very little taken on faith.
However, I would point out that Intel has changed the way they are doing process development. They introduced an...
I couldn't agree more. Intel prefers to hire direct out of college and is less inclined to hire from other companies. In my opinion, this is because people from other companies often have trouble fitting into the Intel culture. I believe that Intel is doing themselves a disservice by creating...
To be clear I am not saying Intel's inability to make money is due to yield. I'm saying that what Intel considers an acceptable yield when HVM starts is different from what TSMC considers acceptable at that point in time. Both companies will increase yields after HVM starts, and I believe...
You would be mistaken. But I will concede I made a gross over simplification here. I should have been more precise.
Yield curves are roughly logarithmic, asymptotically approaching some low number of defects per cc as shown in the curves posted above. So, yield starts out really poor (I'm...
I think the real concern for TSMC is buried in that last article. The article states that a healthy energy grid has around 25% buffer capacity and at times Taiwan's grid has dropped as low as 5%. Combining that with the government's pledge to shut down their last nuclear reactor that provides...
However, if Intel is going to be a serious foundry player they need to get to a point where their yields are at least within spitting distance of TSMC. Intel may not be there now, but they have to get there. To do that they have to change their development paradigm from performance first then...
Yes they can. In fact many of TSMC's US employees left Intel to work for TSMC. And per the terms of the separation packages that were offered those same employees will be eligible to return to Intel one year later without having to reimburse part of their severance package. I'd be surprised...
Overlooking the hyperbole, I do think there is one valid point in this article. Intel's design groups have taken a lot of heat for their poor processor designs, but they were tied to a process technology that was continually late and delivered below target for years. It has to be hard to...
Thanks for the clarification. When you say lead, I think technology. It seems you are looking at it from a more commercial sense. I would agree that from a commercial perspective that TSMC clearly has the lead, and will continue to hold it easily for the foreseeable future.
I suspect...
Can you elaborate on this? BSPD is part of 18A. Customers that are running shuttles at Intel now have access to BSPD. Intel 14A will be 2nd generation BSPD for Intel. In areas like fin-fet and strained silicon Intel have been able to show significant improvement in their 2nd generation...
I agree. 5N4Y was expensive and not sustainable. The fact that Intel only intended to run a fraction of Arrow Lake production on the node made it a poor economic choice to ramp. Had Intel decided to move to 20A and push out 18A I would have considered that far more of a red flag. I have...
IIRC, TSMC's first iteration of fin-fet was also superior to Intel's first gen, though just like BSPD seems to be this time. Intel's 2nd gen fin-fet was much improved and I expect the same to be true for 2nd gen PSBD which I would think would be part of the 14A package. A full technode of...
I guess I'm just thick.
Is it your suggestion that Intel quit trying to provide leading edge processes? I don't think the NOT TSMC market as you define it is looking for trailing edge foundry service, but maybe I'm wrong. It is my impression the NOT TSMC market was looking to Samsung to...
Great question. I can't find any credible source that claims to know anything about the architectural details. Without that I don't think it is even reasonable to hazard a guess.
I'm curious as to how you would see this as different from what Intel is currently doing? I can't see any advantage for IF in turning away any potential customer. Are you suggesting a focus to win specific customers?
All good things take time. I've seen several indications in the media that Intel is trying to change the IDM mentality and some of their clients have been pleased with the improvement they are seeing. Now how long it will take to get there and whether or not Intel has enough time are a...
This is incorrect. Intel has not completely deramped Intel 3/4 in Oregon yet.
It is my understanding that the plan is to move Intel 3/4 from Oregon to Ireland in order to free up tooling for the ramp of 18A and development of 14A. By mid 2024 Intel 3/4 will be a trailing node planed for...
As I've stated elsewhere, Intel has not abandoned 5N4Y. The development work on 20A had to be completed (or nearly so) since others on this site have stated that 18A is a refinement of the 20A plan. I believe Pat Gelsinger's plan to do a small production run on 20A as a proof point was short...
