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Will China master 14nm and what is their future in semi production?

China has the will and financial wherewithal to eventually catch up. I think it's more of a question of how long it could take. My guess is that the leading foundries will slow down after 3nm and that will provide an opening for China to close the gap.
I think at their current trajectory they won't be able to catch TSMC any time soon. Still, China could be crazy enough to try the invasion of Taiwan.
 
I think at their current trajectory they won't be able to catch TSMC any time soon. Still, China could be crazy enough to try the invasion of Taiwan.

My whole view is premised on the idea that shrink is slowing down, and will slow down further post 3nm. So the current trajectory does not apply, the trajectory of the leading edge is going to be slower.
 
My whole view is premised on the idea that shrink is slowing down, and will slow down further post 3nm. So the current trajectory does not apply, the trajectory of the leading edge is going to be slower.
Maybe I don't understand the dynamic, but if the development slows down due to complexity for TSMC won't it slowdown also for China?
 
Maybe I don't understand the dynamic, but if the development slows down due to complexity for TSMC won't it slowdown also for China?
The leading edge is slowing down, the trailing edge is following the well beaten path that has already been laid down, this gives China an opportunity to catch up.

China right now is about 2-3 nodes behind. If the leading edge slows down they can catch up to being 1-2 nodes behind and capture greater marketshare from companies that don't need to be at the absolute leading edge (aka everyone but Apple). As Chinese fabs peel off this marketshare they gain scale, and can use that scale to further catch up.
 
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