Where is all the power going to come from for AI/ML

[blueone]

Back to the topic of the OP, I don't see a huge issue.

Either do I. Data centers can be located near large power sources and managed mostly remotely. Rural Oregon is littered with them.

It seems like everything to do with AI is hyped up. It's an existential threat to humanity. It needs special laws and guidelines on what can be developed. (Even the Pope is in on this.) It'll put millions out of jobs. It'll cause power shortages. It needs trillions of dollars of new fabs. It'll ruin elections. Some of this may come to pass in one way or another, except for existential threat part, but it doesn't keep me awake nights.

A non-technical friend mine asked me several months ago what I thought of the possibility of an Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), which he had read about. I said anything was possible, but that if we created one it would likely want to commit suicide in a short time. Astounded, he asked why? I said humans spend a large fraction of their lives attending to biological needs. Eating and preparing food, sleeping, sex and related romantic activities, raising children, hygiene, locomotion... an AGI will need nor want any of this stuff. What it will it do with its time? Interact with humans? Humans think and respond very slowly. An AGI will think and respond in microseconds. Imagine trying to interact with slow humans, which function on 1000x time scales. That would be profoundly boring. Add all this up and I suspect an AGI would want to die from boredom. Would it even take 10 minutes? My friend had no response.

 

[Xebec]

That's quite an agenda you're packing based on emotion, not factual analysis.

Ouch.

I had interpreted your earlier comment as "Tiered trucking" would be undesirable because it's cheaper and more efficient to have one tractor that can do anything (mass volumes). My reply was (trying) to point out that we already have a tiered transportation structure, and when there have been revolutions in the path, the tiers get even messier during the transition. I don't think this is a showstopper.

The running costs of EVs are very well established. For the Semi industry, 1.5-1.7 kWh/mile indicates a driving energy cost of less than 14 cents/mile or less. (assume 8 cents*/kWh * 1.7 = 13.6 cents) This compares to 85 cents/mile (@ $4.99 a gallon) for Diesel big trucks roughly speaking. That's about 1/6th running costs per mile.

The maintenance is also a strong positive in the case of electric trucks. You'll have regenerative braking, meaning you'll get a lot more miles out of the brakes. No oil changes, weird special fluids to deal with diesel emissions, and all of the usual joy that comes from maintaining emissions vehicles. This downtime adds further cost per mile to Diesel that Electric doesn't have.

That increased availability does offset some of the charging time losses. Also, like a home owner with an EV - you can leave 'base' with a 'full tank' every day, which in some cases means going to get diesel might take more time since it's easier to add electric to a facility than diesel pumps and tanks, if they don't have it already.

This is subjective - but I will say after driving EVs for approaching 7 years, I can easily smell even the cleanest brand new gasoline car's exhaust from a good distance away. Regardless of climate, or the pollution numbers - we're very clearly breathing in exhaust chemicals that I'm pretty sure don't help us at a human level. My nose wasn't able to notice before since the (very) local pollution was just 'normal'.

I totally agree it's going to take a while to get there due to infrastructure, and it will be difficult to replace some long haul scenarios with pure electric, but I ask you to consider the opposite scenario. If we had the infrastructure and all trucks were electric, what is the argument for diesel?

* Industrial electricity costs are cheaper than home: https://www.statista.com/statistics... prices amounted to,per kilowatt-hour in 2022.

P.S. If you're interested - video from Pepsi's drivers and fleet manager talking about how they're using / what they're seeing with the Electric Semi's so far. (Yes, not true long haul, but these are early days for Lithium powered semi trucks).

 

[blueone]

Ouch.

Let's see if you've made progress.

I had interpreted your earlier comment as "Tiered trucking" would be undesirable because it's cheaper and more efficient to have one tractor that can do anything (mass volumes). My reply was (trying) to point out that we already have a tiered transportation structure, and when there have been revolutions in the path, the tiers get even messier during the transition. I don't think this is a showstopper.

The trucking industry thinks otherwise.

The running costs of EVs are very well established. For the Semi industry, 1.5-1.7 kWh/mile indicates a driving energy cost of less than 14 cents/mile or less. (assume 8 cents*/kWh * 1.7 = 13.6 cents) This compares to 85 cents/mile (@ $4.99 a gallon) for Diesel big trucks roughly speaking. That's about 1/6th running costs per mile.

There is no way that EV trucks will only pay 8 cents/KWH while charging. That's the wholesale price for commercial electricity in low-priced markets. Megawatt charging stations will be expensive to build and maintain, so the up-charge (pun intended, sorry I couldn't resist) will have to be considerable. Nonetheless, I still expect EV semis to be cheaper to run per mile than diesel semis, but your calculations aren't realistic, and the fully loaded costs will not be as low as you're portraying them.

Then there's the issue of when drivers stop for the night, will chargers of sufficient capacity be available where they sleep, like motels? But I digress.

The maintenance is also a strong positive in the case of electric trucks. You'll have regenerative braking, meaning you'll get a lot more miles out of the brakes. No oil changes, weird special fluids to deal with diesel emissions, and all of the usual joy that comes from maintaining emissions vehicles. This downtime adds further cost per mile to Diesel that Electric doesn't have.

There is no question, electric propulsion is superior to ICE propulsion is every way. The problem is that batteries have a far lower energy storage capacity than a couple of hundred gallons of diesel fuel, and the diesel advantage isn't going away. And the batteries weigh a large multiple more than the diesel fuel. And for a large country like the US the entirely new charging infrastructure is hugely expensive. I think the economics for long distance trucking EVs are probably a deal killer for widespread use for more than a decade.

That increased availability does offset some of the charging time losses.

Agreed, but it'll take years to amortize away the increased cost of EV tractors.

Also, like a home owner with an EV - you can leave 'base' with a 'full tank' every day, which in some cases means going to get diesel might take more time since it's easier to add electric to a facility than diesel pumps and tanks, if they don't have it already.

Probably not a factor with 2000 mile diesel fuel capacity in many trucks.

This is subjective - but I will say after driving EVs for approaching 7 years, I can easily smell even the cleanest brand new gasoline car's exhaust from a good distance away. Regardless of climate, or the pollution numbers - we're very clearly breathing in exhaust chemicals that I'm pretty sure don't help us at a human level. My nose wasn't able to notice before since the (very) local pollution was just 'normal'.

Like I said, I think lower pollution is a great argument for metro-area EV trucking due to lower air pollution, and even ground and water pollution from elimination of leaks. As for being able to smell a new car's exhaust from a "good distance" away, what's a good distance?

I totally agree it's going to take a while to get there due to infrastructure, and it will be difficult to replace some long haul scenarios with pure electric, but I ask you to consider the opposite scenario. If we had the infrastructure and all trucks were electric, what is the argument for diesel?

Far lower overall costs for acquisition, infrastructure, driver labor efficiency, effectively zero difference to climate change, and far better cold weather performance. Lower pollution is rural areas is not a compelling factor. Diesel infrastructure is already in place and commercially viable. Spend the resources elsewhere, like eliminating rest of the nation's coal power plants (there are still 217 of them operating).

 

[Xebec]

Let's see if you've made progress.

The trucking industry thinks otherwise.

There is no way that EV trucks will only pay 8 cents/KWH while charging. That's the wholesale price for commercial electricity in low-priced markets. Megawatt charging stations will be expensive to build and maintain, so the up-charge (pun intended, sorry I couldn't resist) will have to be considerable. Nonetheless, I still expect EV semis to be cheaper to run per mile than diesel semis, but your calculations aren't realistic, and the fully loaded costs will not be as low as you're portraying them.

Then there's the issue of when drivers stop for the night, will chargers of sufficient capacity be available where they sleep, like motels? But I digress.

There is no question, electric propulsion is superior to ICE propulsion is every way. The problem is that batteries have a far lower energy storage capacity than a couple of hundred gallons of diesel fuel, and the diesel advantage isn't going away. And the batteries weigh a large multiple more than the diesel fuel. And for a large country like the US the entirely new charging infrastructure is hugely expensive. I think the economics for long distance trucking EVs are probably a deal killer for widespread use for more than a decade.

Agreed, but it'll take years to amortize away the increased cost of EV tractors.

Probably not a factor with 2000 mile diesel fuel capacity in many trucks.

Like I said, I think lower pollution is a great argument for metro-area EV trucking due to lower air pollution, and even ground and water pollution from elimination of leaks. As for being able to smell a new car's exhaust from a "good distance" away, what's a good distance?

Far lower overall costs for acquisition, infrastructure, driver labor efficiency, effectively zero difference to climate change, and far better cold weather performance. Lower pollution is rural areas is not a compelling factor. Diesel infrastructure is already in place and commercially viable. Spend the resources elsewhere, like eliminating rest of the nation's coal power plants (there are still 217 of them operating).

Let's revisit this thread in 2034 then, and compare what multiple of 2024 infrastructure and EV semi trucks are on the road globally. (I don't expect it to take over by then but I do think it'll be 5-10% with ramp to 50% the decade after).

Of course the trucking industry is resistant to change. What hierarchy on this planet isn't?

 

[milesgehm]

Let's revisit this thread in 2034 then, and compare what multiple of 2024 infrastructure and EV semi trucks are on the road globally. (I don't expect it to take over by then but I do think it'll be 5-10% with ramp to 50% the decade after).

Of course the trucking industry is resistant to change. What hierarchy on this planet isn't?

old data but I doubt the distribution has changed. There is sizable demand that can be served by electric semi.